Betting
1/24/24
7 min read
2024 NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets
Below, you’ll find the best bets for each Conference Championship game. The team of Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Ahaan Rungta, Samantha Previte and Patrick H. are working to find the best player prop bets and will be posting them in this article.
You can also find all our plays in our FREE Discord, in the prop-bets channel.
Top Conference Championship Player Props
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -3.5
Total: 44.5 Points
Mecole Hardman UNDER 12.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Mecole Hardman has gone under this number in 11 of 13 games this season, failing to reach 10 yards in nine of 13. His second-highest receiving output for the season is 13 yards, a near miss. His highest output was 77 yards in Week 18, but that was a game where the Kansas City Chiefs rested their starters, and Hardman caught passes from Blaine Gabbert.
Last week, he fumbled his lone target out of bounds and then fumbled his lone carry out of the end zone, resulting in a touchback and change of possession. It’s difficult to see Hardman’s role doing anything other than decreasing in the Conference Championship. Should Hardman get benched or cut ahead of this game, the bet would void, and the money would be refunded.
Gus Edwards OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This number has already risen to 41.5 yards on FanDuel. Gus Edwards has gone over this number in 13 of 18 games this year. The Baltimore Ravens are currently three-point favorites, and the game script likely keeps this game close, which would benefit Edwards. The Chiefs’ 4.6 YPC (yards per carry) allowed to running backs in the regular season was only topped by Denver's 5.2 YPC allowed.
Last week, Josh Allen, James Cook and Ty Johnson all topped 39.5 yards rushing. The week before, no Dolphins runner reached 40 yards, but that was due to the 26-7 blowout. Mostert averaged 4.1 YPC but only had eight carries due to the blowout. Part of that was also due to the warm weather Miami team not being able to play in cold weather in Kansas City. This Chiefs-Ravens game will be a cold weather game hosted by Baltimore, and Edwards is accustomed to these conditions.
The Chiefs have an elite pass defense, and the way to beat them is on the ground rather than through the air. The concern here is potential role fragility. Justice Hill was the leadback over Edwards last week, but Edwards still had 10 carries to Hill's 13.
Justin Watson OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -120 on BetMGM
This prop is already much more heavily juiced on some other sportsbooks. Vertical threat Justin Watson has a route participation rate north of 50 percent in every non-injury/non-blowout game, and he has at least 30 air yards in 12 games this season.
The Ravens have a reputation for bracketing top options, and in this case, their elite coverage squad will be on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Patrick Mahomes' attempts line is set at 36.5, and Watson has cleared this line in 10 of 13 games this season where Mahomes attempted more than 30 passes. Additionally, this weekend, Kansas City simply has to make sure Watson is involved out of necessity with Kadarius Toney questionable, Skyy Moore on injured reserve and Hardman nearly costing them the game in the Divisional Round with two fumbles.
Watson's receptions line is about the same price on the over but his 17.5-yard average depth of target is No. 3 among NFL wide receivers. While this game will be played in Baltimore, weather issues don't affect the Mahomes offense all that much so this receiving yard line is attainable on just one catch.
Lamar Jackson OVER 210.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Lamar Jackson has faced Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense three times, and he’s been over this number in two of those games. It’s been a couple of years since these teams faced off, though.
The Chiefs' defense has generally limited high-caliber rushing quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on the ground over the past two years. Jackson has gone over 210.5 passing yards in eight of his past 13 games in Todd Monken’s offense, and he should get Mark Andrews back this week. There is some shootout potential in this matchup between Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
Isaiah Likely UNDER 22.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Isaiah Likely has been one of Jackson’s go-to play-makers since Andrews went down with an injury that cut his regular season short. Since the Ravens’ Week 13 bye, Likely has scored six times, though his yardage has been anemic of late. In the last three games, he has tallied 42, 31 and 34 receiving yards and will, in all likelihood, have more competition moving forward.
First-string tight end Andrews underwent ankle surgery on Nov. 21 and hasn't played since, but he was a full participant in practice this week, which is a good signal that he might play in this game. The Chiefs are a tough team against the pass and are top four in yardage allowed to tight ends specifically. Assuming Andrews starts, Likely should easily slide under this total.
Mark Andrews OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on FanDuel
Mark Andrews was a full practice participant last week, so we’re expecting him to have a decent role this week. Andrews has 35 or more yards in all nine full games this year — he caught two passes for 23 receiving yards on just seven snaps in the game he sprained his ankle.
When looking at a larger sample of games from 2021-22, he was also over 35.5 receiving yards in 26 of 32 games (81 percent). Betting lines for Likely weren’t posted on any sportsbooks for a long time after lines for Andrews came out, so we’re assuming Andrews gets most of the receiving work at tight end.
Odell Beckham Jr. ran under 10 routes last week, so it should mostly be Zay Flowers, Andrews and Rashod Bateman in the Ravens' receiving game.
We have partnered with Betr; use promo code 33rdTeam to get a 100 percent deposit match up to $500 upon sign-up, which is five times the industry standard for fantasy picks apps. Many pick analogs for these player props exist on the Betr app. Last week, we hit a 9x entry in the Buccaneers-Lions game, turning $50 into $450. Stay tuned for this week’s Betr picks, coming later this week.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -7
Total: 51 Points
David Montgomery UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
The San Francisco 49ers gave up the fewest rushing yards to running backs this season, and the 49ers front is their strength on defense — their linemen and linebacking core.
Like last week, we expect Jahmyr Gibbs, not David Montgomery, to see a usage spike. The spread is at 49ers -7, so there’s a good chance the Detroit Lions will play from behind and abandon the run. DraftKings has dropped this line to 43.5 yards already.
Brock Purdy OVER 257.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Quarterbacks have feasted against the Lions' secondary all season, but especially recently. In the last five games, Detroit has allowed at least 345 passing yards to its opponent.
Brock Purdy averaged more than 267 yards per game during the regular season, so we already know he’s a capable passer for raw yardage. After a relatively quiet showing from this offense last week against Green Bay, expect a more impressive passing offense on Sunday.
Note: This Purdy line has increased considerably. The best place to get immediate access to our plays is our FREE Discord, in the prop-bets channel.
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown
Best Odds: +150 on FanDuel
This is +110 on Caesar’s and +115 on DraftKings, a difference of about six percentage points. Jahmyr Gibbs scored in six of his past seven and 10 of his past 13 games. The game total here is 51, and the implied team total for the Lions is 22 points, so Vegas expects touchdowns.
Gibbs has three red zone carries and a red zone target in the playoffs. We are most excited about the significant odds discrepancy across sportsbooks and would not recommend taking this line at +115 odds.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -118 on FanDuel
Gibbs has gone over 65.5 total yards in 11 of 17 games this season. Because Gibbs was eased in to start the season — as many rookies are — he’s gone over this number in 10 of his past 13 (77 percent).
With the Lions as touchdown underdogs, we likely see a healthy dose of Gibbs in the passing game again. He’s had four catches, at least 40 receiving yards and eight carries in both postseason games.
Note: This Gibbs total yards line has increased considerably. The best place to get immediate access to our plays is our FREE Discord in the prop-bets channel.
Josh Reynolds OVER 18.5 Yards Longest Reception
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
This is an extreme buy-low spot because Josh Reynolds has only hit this line in one of his previous five games and three of his last 10. However, he draws a matchup against a San Francisco team whose most significant weakness is their secondary. Reynolds' tall build and high catch radius will allow him to win matchups against weaker, undersized 49ers defensive backs while most of their defensive attention is on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Non-primary options against the 49ers have created big plays at will. Since coming off its bye in Week 10, San Francisco has allowed 31 catches of at least 19 yards, including several to receivers that aren't top-two options on their team (Rakim Jarrett, Romeo Doubs twice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Curtis Samuel and Bo Melton). The weather is projected to be completely clear in San Francisco by the weekend, and we are only asking Reynolds to get us one explosive play.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 4.5 Receptions
Best Odds: -118 on FanDuel
The Lions have given up an NFL-high 278 passing yards per game this season, thanks in large part to a late-season defensive meltdown. Over the last five games, Detroit’s defense has allowed 1,868 passing yards — 807 of which went to a Nick Mullens-led Minnesota Vikings team over two games.
Last week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield took advantage of this porous pass defense and threw for 349 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in the divisional round.
In contrast, Detroit’s run defense has been solid — it allowed the second-fewest rushing yards all year. With this in mind, Christian McCaffrey should be poised for a big game through the air. He averaged over four catches per game in the regular season — the second-most among running backs — and would have smashed this over last week against the Green Bay Packers.
McCaffrey reeled in seven of 12 targets in the divisional round for 30 yards against a less exploitable pass defense and would have gone over this 4.5 mark in seven of the last nine games played (excluding the game in which he was injured).
We have partnered with Betr; use promo code 33rdTeam to get a 100 percent deposit match up to $500 upon sign-up, which is five times the industry standard for fantasy picks apps. Many pick analogs for these player props exist on the Betr app.
