NFL Analysis

3/6/24

7 min read

2024 NFL Draft: 5 Prospects Whose Combine Workout Doesn't Match Their Play

By Connor Livesay

Senior NFL Draft Writer
Audric Estime runs the 40-yard dash at the 2024 NFL Combine
Mar 2, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Notre Dame running back Audric Estime (RB10) during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 NFL Scouting Combine gave us plenty to discuss over the next two months. 

Texas WR Xavier Worthy’s 4.21-second record-breaking 40-yard dash, Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson recording the fastest 10-yard split ever for a 250-plus-pound edge rusher and Texas Tech DB Tyler Owens jumping out of Lucas Oil Stadium are just a few of those things.

>> READ MORE: 11 Best Combine Performances

There will be plenty of conversations about the dynamic athletes we saw in Indianapolis last weekend. But what about the guys who disappointed or exceeded expectations? What's their next step?

Every year, there are players whose tape does not match their testing. When that occurs, rewatching the tape and confirming what you initially saw or changing an evaluation makes the pre-draft process one of the more difficult things to do.

Here are five workouts from last week that sent me back to the tape.

5 Surprising Combine Performances

Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame

One of the weekend’s more surprising 40-yard times came from Notre Dame’s Audric Estime. Like Oregon’s Bucky Irving, no one expected Estime to break records. However, posting a 4.71-second time raises questions about his long speed. 

On tape, Estime is an explosive, strong runner who can run away from defenders in the open field. Posting a 4.71-second time with a 1.66-second 10-yard split puts Estime in a rare class of running backs who found success in the NFL. 

Estime could be considered a top-five back in the class, but many scouts will need to see his time drastically improve at his pro day. Though there are plenty of things to like about Estime’s game, the list of running backs who have carved out quality NFL roles with that slow of a 40-yard time is small.

Estime can answer many of these questions at Notre Dame’s Pro Day and could put himself back in the top 100-150 conversation with a good showing in the 40. 

He has some impressive tape and his explosive testing is well above average, so improving his speed numbers is the one thing he needs to do before April.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas 

For most players listed, we're talking about poor testing that didn't match good tape. For Texas WR Adonai Mitchell, we're talking about elite testing that didn't appear on his otherwise impressive tape.

The question for most players is: “How high can we draft this guy with this poor testing?”

The question with Mitchell is: “How high can we draft him with this good of testing paired with this good of tape?” Mitchell has all the tools to develop into one of the highest-ceiling receivers in this draft class after the big three drills. 

One of the only questions surrounding his game was how athletic he was because he didn't always display high-end athleticism on tape. 

The combine showed that Mitchell has plenty of that packed into his 6-foot-2, 205-pound frame. When watching Mitchell’s tape at Texas, you see a player who has the size, runs quality routes and could be a threat with the football in his hands. 

When Mitchell posted a 4.34-second 40-time, a 39.5-inch vertical and an 11-foot-4 broad jump, the discussion about Mitchell’s ceiling started to heat up. As much as I liked Mitchell coming into the combine (he was my 30th overall player), I'll head back to the tape to see if I overlooked his athletic traits in my initial grading.

Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State

Heading into the combine, it was probably 50-50 on whether evaluators viewed Florida State WR Johnny Wilson as a pure receiver or a tight end convert. After the combine, I bet most teams will give him a shot at receiver before bulking up the 6-foot-6, 231-pounder and asking him to switch to tight end.

This is a perfect example of combine numbers not showing up on tape at all. But with such a dramatic difference in expectations, viewing Wilson’s tape a second time is necessary. 

In my initial viewing of Wilson, I saw a big, long-framed receiver who lacked fluidity, explosiveness and speed before and after the catch. He had a big catch radius, solid body control and great blocking ability in the running game. 

His combine numbers tell a completely different story. Wilson posted a 4.52-second 40-time, a 1.55-second 10-yard split, a 37-inch vertical and a 10-foot-5 broad jump — all impressive numbers for his size. 

Wilson’s athletic testing was one of the biggest shocks of the weekend.

Austin Booker, EDGE, Kansas

Before the combine, there was a lot of buzz about Kansas EDGE Austin Booker rising on draft boards. 

Despite being a smaller prospect, Booker received high praise for his athleticism and length. Unfortunately, his combine testing left much to be desired for the 6-foot-4, 240-pound edge rusher. 

Booker's size does him no favors, so he needed his athleticism and strength to make up for it, but that wasn't the case. On tape, Booker’s game oozes with athleticism. He also shows good technique for a player who has played limited snaps.  

Booker ran a 4.81-second 40-yard dash with a 1.68-second 10-yard split. His speed times were also less than ideal, and his 32.5-inch vertical jump wasn’t good, either. While none of these numbers are extremely concerning, a much better performance was expected based on his tape at Kansas. 

He is expected to test again at Kansas’ Pro Day, but after his week in Indianapolis, I'll dig much deeper into his 505 total snaps.

Bucky Irving, RB, Oregon

Heading into the week, Bucky Irving sat comfortably at the top of my running back rankings. While that went against consensus, I was a huge fan of his big-play ability, elusiveness, explosiveness and receiving skills. 

After the combine, his tape bears further review to determine if my eyes lied or if it was just a lousy testing day for the Oregon running back. 

We knew Irving would measure on the smaller end of the spectrum; he was 5-foot-9, 192 pounds. However, his testing was one of the weekend’s biggest disappointments. 

Irving’s 4.55-second 40-yard time left me scratching my head. While I never expected Irving to run in the 4.3 seconds, I was anticipating high-4.4 seconds to be his ceiling. Even with a below-average 40-yard time, he posted an impressive 1.54-second 10-yard split, showing off his burst and explosiveness. 

Unfortunately, the rest of his explosive testing numbers were well below average. He posted a 29.5-inch vertical jump and a 9-foot-7 broad jump. 

Given his lack of size and well-below-average relative athletic score (3.71u), I'll spend a lot of time diving back into Oregon's offense to determine whether or not to adjust Irving’s ranking.

Tags: Adonai Mitchell, Audric Estime, Austin Booker See More

Connor Livesay

Senior NFL Draft Writer

Connor Livesay is an NFL Draft analyst whose deep-rooted passion for the game has positioned him as a prominent figure in the field of football analysis. With a focus on the NFL and the NFL draft, he delivers year-round coverage and insights that have been well-respected by fans and professionals. His online presence can be found mainly on Twitter, where he goes by the handle of @ConnorNFLdraft and has a dedicated following of more than 11,000 people. His active engagement on this platform allows him to share valuable perspectives, breaking news, and expert opinions, establishing his reputation as a trusted source for all NFL and NFL draft-related content.

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