NFL Analysis
3/6/24
6 min read
2024 NFL Draft: Ranking 7 Strongest Arms in This Year’s QB Class
We continue ranking the top players in this draft class at each position by trait — today, we're looking at the strongest arms of the quarterbacks. Arm strength can make all the difference on shots downfield and when fitting the ball into a tight window.
>>READ: 7 Most Accurate QBs in 2024 NFL Draft
Which players in the 2024 class have the strongest arms, get the ball to their target as quickly as possible and find their speedsters downfield? Using our Big Board and our scouting evaluation and metrics, we’ll rank the top 7 quarterbacks with the most functional arm strength.
7 Strongest Arms 2024 QB Class
Joe Milton III with the laser rocket arm. pic.twitter.com/O2oisJJva4
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 2, 2024
1. Joe Milton III, Tennessee
Joe Milton’s 8-grade (excellent) arm strength on our 1-9 grading scale is his best trait and the highest-rated arm on our board. Milton can make just about any throw, even when everything around him is falling apart.
“He has the arm strength to be able to make those awkward throws while being dragged to the ground or when the pocket collapses on him and he can’t stride to make the pass,” said SIS scout Chris Congemo in Joe Milton’s full scouting report.
This is backed by the numbers, where Milton ranked fourth in the country in throw-air-time-plus-or-minus — which measures the average amount of time similar throws take to reach their target factoring in throw distance and the footwork of the quarterback — when moving (-0.13 seconds).
His accuracy can waver, but if controlled, Milton can launch it with the best of them.
2. Caleb Williams, USC
Caleb Williams' 7-grade arm strength ranks second on our arm strength list. His ability to move outside the pocket and throw on a rope with accuracy makes him special. On throws 15 or more yards downfield, Williams ranked fourth in the SIS Independent Quarterback Rating.
IQR = Independent QB Rating, which builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside his control, such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions and throwaways.
“If forced, Williams excels outside of the pocket, keeping his eyes downfield, and he has the accuracy and arm strength to make special plays,” said SIS scout Michael Morgan in Williams’ full scouting report.
3. Drake Maye, North Carolina
Drake Maye also has a 7 rating for arm strength. He can get the ball where it needs to go on all levels of the field. Last season, he ranked 21st in throw-air-time-plus-or-minus (-0.04 second) and ninth in average depth of completion at 5.6 yards. Overall, he can make any throw he needs when clean because he has the velocity to do so.
“He is a very good deep ball thrower. He shows very good touch on deep fades and go balls that stress the defense in both Cover 1 and Cover 2,” said SIS scout Matt Manocherian in Maye’s full scouting report. “He can drive the ball downfield on a line without needing to put much air under it. He shows good ball placement on quick throws, and he is very good at making level-2 throws down the seam. He shows great feel with the ability to take something off of his throws when he needs to.”
If the Patriots pass on a QB early and have to take a guy on Day 2 (in my opinion Penix is a Day 1 talent so he's not in that equation) nobody has more big boy throws than Spencer Rattler. pic.twitter.com/BFf9IfaGl9
— Mighty Kaos aka Coach Williams 🏈 (@mightykaos41) February 27, 2024
4. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
What makes Spencer Rattler’s arm strength special is what he can do off-platform.
“While the ball doesn’t pop out of his hand, he shows the ability to get the ball to all areas of the field with solid arm strength,” said Jordan Edwards, an SIS scout, in Rattler’s full scouting report. “The confidence he has in his arm is evident as he is comfortable throwing off his back foot and off-platform if needed.”
Rattler's arm strength also received a 6.
Last season, Rattler ranked in the top 25 in throw-air-time-plus-or-minus on throws when he was moving among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Additionally, he ranks ninth in the same metric on level-1 throws (ones that attack the first layer of the defense “on a line”), proving he can quickly get the ball to a receiver through traffic.
Unlike some of the prospects below, Rattler can make special off-balance throws, which is what propelled him up the rankings.
5. Jayden Daniels, LSU
Jayden Daniels, the reigning Heisman winner, has arm strength graded out at a 6. Last season, Daniels ranked 10th in the NCAA in throw-air-time-plus-or-minus (-0.07 second) and was fourth in average depth of completion (6.6 yards).
Specifically, Daniels showed he has the strength to get the ball to his receivers on short throws, ranking fourth in throw-air-time-plus-or-minus on level-1 throws. This is due to his quick, compact release that allows him to get the ball where it needs to go in a timely manner.
6. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Michael Penix Jr. received a 6 in arm strength on our grading scale, but his deep ball might be the best in this year’s class.
“He throws a gorgeous deep ball,” said SIS scout Jeremy Percy in Penix’s full scouting report. “He can put the ball on a rope deep down the field to the outside shoulder from the opposite hash or loft it up with plenty of air to let his receiver run underneath it.”
The stats back this up, as Penix attempted the most passes 20 or more yards downfield and still ranked eighth in on-target percentage at 53.5 percent among those with at least 50 deep attempts. He also ranked in the top 20 in average depth of completion (5.7 yards).
However, Penix doesn’t have the zip on short throws — he ranks 125th in throw-air-time-plus-or-minus on level-1 throws. Lacking that drops Penix on the list, but his ability to take the top off a defense at any point has value.
DIME by J.J. McCarthy pic.twitter.com/aOv59kCReJ
— Clayton Sayfie (@CSayf23) March 2, 2024
7. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
J.J. McCarthy has a 6-grade arm strength. Overall, he ranked first in this class in throw-air-time-plus-or-minus (-0.13 second) in 2023 — in other words, his throws were 13 hundredths of a second faster than the average quarterback.
His average depth of target ranked 76th at 9.1, but his average depth of completion of 5.5 yards put him at 11th among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in 2023.
McCarthy has good zip and the ability to get balls downfield when needed, and based on the advanced metrics alone, a case could be made that he should be even higher on this list.
This article was written by James Weaver.
