NFL Analysis
3/23/24
7 min read
2024 NFL Free Agency: 5 Riskiest Signings
The 2024 NFL free agency period has brought excitement alongside the usual flurry of trades and signings. Some deals will pay off, while others fade as forgettable moments. But others will prove devastating for a team's season, even if both sides' intentions were good and the fit seemed perfect.
Some risky deals were made through the second wave of free agency, whether due to injuries, a missed opportunity to acquire someone else, an overpay or being a bad fit.
We're breaking down the ones that carry the most risk.
Riskiest 2024 Free Agency Signings
Packers Swap Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs
If all goes well with the Green Bay Packers’ signing of Josh Jacobs, they'll have successfully upgraded from a 29-year-old running back to a 26-year-old who can more reliably carry a heavier workload. However, Jacobs' four-year, $48 million deal wasn't the only cost of the signing. Green Bay also ate the $12.35 million dead cap on Aaron Jones' deal by releasing him.
Jones refused a pay cut to stay with the franchise after logging only 172 touches in 11 games. It was the fewest games started and touches he's produced since 2018. The Packers understandably requested a reduction of his whopping $17.2 million cap hit but couldn't keep Jones and Jacobs on the roster at that cost.
It still hurt to see Jones go to a division rival in Minnesota for $7 million guaranteed. Jones was an electric, efficient rusher and solid receiving threat when healthy. He totaled 63 touchdowns as a Packer and averaged at least 4.6 yards per carry.
However, Jacobs has shown a higher ceiling as a runner and has been a steady workhorse. He led the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards in 2022 and has never played behind an offensive line as good as the Packers'. Jacobs hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown, though, and his efficiency numbers are concerning in three of his five seasons.
A healthier ecosystem in Green Bay might cure those concerns. However, if Jacobs isn't the explosive back he was in 2022, and the 223-pounder is closer to the plodder who averaged 3.5 yards a carry last year, this signing will be a major bust.
Browns Trade For, Extend Jerry Jeudy
The Cleveland Browns’ trade for Jerry Jeudy was easily justified. The Browns lack a reliable slot and deep target on the roster. Jeudy is one of five receivers with at least 10 catches of 40 or more yards since 2022 and was 21st in slot snaps last year. He fits a big need.
The Browns also lack significant draft capital, so only giving up 2024 fifth- and sixth-round picks in return was a win. But the surprising move was the ensuing three-year extension worth up to $58 million. Jeudy, turning 25 before the draft, has yet to produce more than 972 yards and six touchdowns in a single season.
It's a gamble that Jeudy will play better in a loaded offense with a quarterback in his own make-or-break season. Jeudy was in the final year of his rookie deal, worth just less than $13 million so that money was rolled into his extension.
The deal could be a great value if Jeudy can live up to the expectations he entered the league with as a dominant playmaker at Alabama.
However, the consistency hasn't been there for Jeudy to be more than a borderline WR2. It's a forward-thinking move, but sometimes these risks don't work out. Considering Cleveland's tight pockets in coming years, the Jeudy deal could look exceptionally costly if he's not a clear difference-maker in 2024.
Titans Go All In On Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley is a good player, but the Tennessee Titans franchise hasn't been kind to receivers throughout history. DeAndre Hopkins proved to still be quite good in 2023, but it's hard to shake the image of Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Eric Moulds, Andre Johnson, Robert Woods and Eric Decker seeing their careers die in Tennessee.
Ridley won't be an outright bust because he's still fast, but paying him $23 million yearly was jaw-dropping.
Turning 30 by the end of the year, Ridley barely surpassed 1,000 yards with Trevor Lawrence in 2023 and is four years removed from his breakout 1,374-yard season in Atlanta.
Tennessee needed speed, but Ridley wasn't efficient on his opportunities in Jacksonville. He ranked third in routes run, eighth in deep targets and only 53rd in yards after the catch.
The Titans must get more out of Ridley for the signing to make sense. Will Levis needed another reliable target for his development, but Ridley has to be utilized in motion, from the slot and space, more often than Jacksonville tried.
If Titans offensive coordinator Nick Holz can use Ridley as a flexible weapon instead of a pure Z receiver, this deal can avoid busting.
Panthers Give Robert Hunt $100 Million
The guard market suddenly exploded unexpectedly this offseason. Robert Hunt earned a $100 million deal, while Kevin Dotson ($48 million), Jonah Jackson ($51 million) and Damien Lews ($53 million) made out quite well. Funny enough, the Rams signed Dotson and Jackson, while Hunt and Lewis landed with the Carolina Panthers.
Hunt’s deal is the odd one. Dotson, Jackson and Lewis signed above-average deals but were still at least $3 million a year less than Hunt. Hunt, 27, played in 11 games in 2023 but ranked as a below-average pass blocker and run blocker in ESPN's win rate metrics. Now, the 6-foot-6, 330-pounder is the league’s second-highest-paid right guard.
Carolina has two second-round picks and the top selections in the third and fourth rounds. Could they have found a serviceable guard instead of splurging on Hunt? Maybe not, given the franchise's woeful offensive talent fielded in 2023.
But Hunt's deal will almost certainly be an albatross if he doesn't rapidly improve.
>> READ MORE: Why The NFL's Guard Market Exploded
Cowboys Lose Tyron Smith to the Jets
The Dallas Cowboys watched a franchise icon depart this offseason after 13 years. Tyron Smith, 33, wasn't even practicing for half the year in 2023 because a neck injury caused too much discomfort. Still, he showed up and played in 13 games, the most since 2019.
When Smith is on the field, he's still an impact talent. His 2023 blocking rates were above his averages since the 2017 season. His massive contract expired, leaving Dallas with the choice to make a competitive offer or to move on and look for a younger, healthier option.
Smith signed a one-year deal with the New York Jets, with only $6.5 million guaranteed. However, he could make up to $20 million with "not likely to be earned" incentives.
These include a $5.75 million bonus for playing 68 percent of snaps and a $6.25 million bonus if he reaches 98 percent.
Now, the Jets can use the 10th pick on a different position to help Aaron Rodgers. However, the Cowboys will have to draft a left tackle or move guard Tyler Smith over and then fill the vacated spot.
Only Tyron Smith's health will determine whether Dallas made the right call or if it cut the cord a little too early on someone with the potential to keep the offense running at a high level in a crucial 2024 season.
