NFL Analysis
3/16/24
9 min read
2024 NFL Free Agency: Ranking 9 Worst Early Moves
With NFL free agency slowing down, we have a good idea of all the good and bad signings over the past week. Today we will look at some of the bad, ranking the nine worst moves that have happened in the early stages of free agency.
>>READ: 9 Best Free Agent Moves
9 Worst Free Agent Moves
9. Russell Wilson to Pittsburgh Steelers 
While almost all of the signings or deals on this list had something to do with money, this one did not. By no means are the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wrong for signing Russell Wilson for peanuts, but the fit makes absolutely no sense.
Arthur Smith’s tenure in Atlanta went south because he could not find a quarterback to aggressively target the middle of the field off of his heavy usage of play-action. Smith’s game plans center around pulling linebackers up off of play-fakes and taking shots over the middle in the deep third of the field. That is one area Wilson has struggled to aggressively attack in the NFL.
I do not blame the Steelers for taking a flier on Wilson at a league-minimum price point, but Wilson's fit in Pittsburgh with Smith as offensive coordinator could lead to a lot of headaches for Pittsburgh fans throughout the 2024 season.
8. D’Andre Swift to Chicago Bears (THree Years, $24 million) 
The 2024 NFL Draft running back class lacks top-end prospects, so the 2024 free agent market at running back was booming. D’Andre Swift was the first signing in an aggressive run of running backs signed in the first two days of free agency.
Swift had a solid season in Philadelphia, where he rushed for 1,049 yards on 229 carries. Like the Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, the Chicago Bears had plenty of money to spend in free agency, and they did just that. While $8 million a year seems quite rich for Swift, the Bears were set on adding another veteran to Khalil Herbert and second-year running back Roschon Johnson.
While Swift’s market was projected to be a bit lower than what Chicago gave him, the Bears obviously viewed Swift as one of their top targets and went after him aggressively at the start of the legal tampering period.
7. Joe Mixon to Houston Texans (Three years, $27 million) 
One of the biggest head-scratching moves was the Houston Texans trading for former Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon after it came out the Bengals planned on releasing him. Houston had a hole at running back after losing Devin Singletary to the New York Giants, but the decision to trade and pay Mixon the 12th-highest running back contract heading into age 28 was interesting, to say the least.
The Texans still have Dameon Pierce on the roster and with five picks in the first four rounds, it was easy to envision them adding a rookie on Day 2 or with one of their fourth-round picks and rolling with that. The Texans have the money to spend, so this deal isn't devastating cap-wise. But it feels like there were better, cheaper and younger options in free agency if the Texans were set on adding a veteran.
6. Robert Hunt to Carolina Panthers (Five years, $100 million) 
One of the biggest contracts handed out was the Carolina Panthers giving former Miami Dolphins OL Robert Hunt a five-year, $100 million deal with $63 million in guarantees. This is a massive overpay for Hunt, but the Panthers deserve credit for aggressively attempting to make a 2023 weakness a 2024 strength.
Hunt played in 11 games in 2023, all at left guard. While Hunt will be an upgrade over what Carolina had lined up in front of Bryce Young in 2023, he is heading into year 28 and has the eighth-largest offensive line contract (third-highest guard contract) in the NFL.
Hunt should improve the Panthers' pass protection and run blocking in 2024, but in a draft class loaded with offensive linemen and the Panthers not having a ton of cap space, this deal comes with a big risk.
>>READ: NFL Teams Spend Big on Offensive Lineman
5. Devin White to Philadelphia Eagles (One year, up to $7.5 million) 
It is no secret that the linebacker play has been a big issue for the Philadelphia Eagles recently. Nakobe Dean has not developed how most had hoped and free agent Zach Cunningham was a liability in coverage, so we knew linebacker would be near the top of the list of positions to get fixed via free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Eagles agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $7.5 million with former Buccaneers LB Devin White on Thursday. White, still 26, is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, in which he was benched halfway through the season for K.J. Britt.
White was one of the bigger names left at linebacker, but he was far from the player he was at LSU and during his rookie year. The Eagles are only tied to White for one year, but if they think White will fix to their linebacker struggles, they could be in for a rude awakening.
4. Justin Jones to Arizona Cardinals (Three years, $31.1 million) 
Another head-scratcher was the Arizona Cardinals signing former Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears DT Justin Jones to a three-year, $31 million deal with $26.75 million in guarantees.
Jones, a six-year NFL veteran, was a third-round pick by the Chargers in 2018. Through six years in the league, Jones has just 12 sacks. While he is coming off one of his better years as a pass rusher (36 pressures and 4.5 sacks), he is a liability against the run. That makes him an interesting fit for the Cardinals, who ranked 27th in rush EPA and 31st in rush success rate in 2023.
Jones is a big body to add to the pass rush room in Arizona and should be put in some intriguing spots to generate pressure in Jonathan Gannon’s defense. But this contract gives Jones the fourth-highest total guaranteed money out of the defensive tackles signed in free agency so far.
3. Kenneth Murray Jr. to Tennessee Titans (Two years, $15.5 million) 
For a team that had plenty of cap space, it was surprising to see the Tennessee Titans let Azeez Al-Shaair walk for just more than $11 million per year, but sign Kenneth Murray Jr. for just under $8 million per year.
Murray is one of the more inconsistent linebackers in the NFL against the run and the pass. Murray, a first-round pick in 2020, has NFL size and athleticism, but his instincts and physicality against the run have disappointed thus far.
While it is tough to call a signing an overpay when the Titans had so much cap space, this felt like a massive overpay for a linebacker who has struggled in his first four NFL seasons.
2. Gabe Davis to Jacksonville Jaguars (Three years, $39 million) 
Two of the biggest swings and misses this week came from Trent Baalke and the Jacksonville Jaguars. After placing the franchise tag on EDGE Josh Allen and not re-signing Calvin Ridley, the Jaguars added Gabe Davis on a three-year, $39 million deal with $24 million in guaranteed money.
Davis had a down season in Buffalo, ranking 128th in open score, 110th in catch score, 47th in YAC score and 113th overall score, according to ESPN receiver tracking metrics. Davis was somewhat of a one-trick pony in Buffalo. Now he will be asked to replace Ridley’s production without a receiver of Stefon Diggs' caliber or a tight end of Dalton Kincaid's caliber alongside him.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars allowing Calvin Ridley to walk
If you have not heard, it sounds like the Jacksonville Jaguars botched the Josh Allen contract negotiations, leading them to use their franchise tag on him. That made things more difficult to retain WR Calvin Ridley. Ridley eventually signed a four-year, $92 million deal with the Tennessee Titans, leaving a massive hole at wide receiver for the Jaguars.
Jacksonville signed Davis to a three-year deal earlier in the week, but Davis is far from the caliber of receiver that Ridley is. Given the Jaguars' track record of hitting on wide receivers in the draft, there may not be much upgrading to be done to the Jacksonville wide receiver room.
Trevor Lawrence’s rookie contract window is closing quickly, and the Jaguars should do everything they can to put pieces around him to give them a shot to compete in the AFC. Replacing Ridley with Davis is doing the exact opposite of that, even if it meant shelling out more money than they had hoped for Ridley after trading for him in 2022.
