NFL Analysis
12/18/24
16 min read
2024 NFL Week 16 QB Power Rankings: Which Passers Are Getting Hot?
Welcome to Week 16 of the quarterback rankings.
These are not your typical quarterback rankings, which is why you might see some differences from what you’d expect to see in a ranking system that was built off a box score or reputation.
As a reminder, our new grading system combines the skill set rankings (how good a quarterback is in a vacuum) and production (based on a composite of EPA per play and success rate from TruMedia) for the 2024 season.
The hope is that the mix of the skill set rankings and the production rankings will give a more complete picture of what is actually happening on the field during the 2024 season.
The skill set rankings are from me, watching and grading each quarterback in the individual categories. If you feel like I hate your favorite quarterback, those are the rankings you should be looking at and yelling at me for.
The skill score is then combined with the production score to get the full rankings.
The full rankings, including each individual skill set, will be at the bottom of this article. If you liked the old rankings, you can filter by Skill Score. If you're more interested in production, you can filter by that, too.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings. With the production rankings, we’ll start ranking new quarterbacks after their first start or if an official move is made.
With that out of the way, here are the new quarterback rankings heading into Week 16. All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
Week 16 Quarterback Rankings
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.80 | Ranking Score: 8.75
Josh Allen’s entire season has been about combining the safer, in-structure throws with the wild things Allen can pull off. We got both Sunday against the Lions.
Allen had a 60 percent success rate but was also off making impossible angle throws near the sideline and launching passes down the field on the run as he did to Keon Coleman.
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.73 | Ranking Score: 8.72
Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes and four incompletions. Not too bad! That 83 percent completion percentage came with a 10.3-yard average depth of target.
Jackson was firing down the field, and the Giants did not do much to stop it. The Giants tried by blitzing on 50 percent of Jackson’s dropbacks, but that left plenty of voids in coverage for Jackson to find.
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 7.89 | Ranking Score: 8.50
Jared Goff wasn’t put in an ideal situation with the Lions trailing early. But he was able to keep pace as well as he could while having to throw as often as he did while the Bills sold out to stop the run.
Goff had some nice throws en route to five touchdown passes, including a perfectly placed dig to Amon-Ra St. Brown over both Buffalo linebackers for a 66-yard touchdown.
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Skill Score: 9.52 | Production Score: 6.44 | Ranking Score: 7.98
Joe Burrow had two interceptions and was dragged into the slop of what Bengals-Titans turned out to be, but his overall game was much better than that.
He was able to get the ball out quickly and avoid sacks, which has been a big part of his improvement this season. He spent most of the game throwing short of the sticks, but it worked with the space Cincinnati was creating.
5. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Skill Score: 9.20 | Production Score: 6.53 | Ranking Score: 7.87
There was a lot to like about how Jayden Daniels played against the Saints, as the offense figured out ways to move receivers around without Noah Brown in the lineup.
But there were problems in pass protection with Tyler Biadasz out, and Daniels took eight sacks — a 20.5 percent rate.
6. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 6.57 | Ranking Score: 7.83
Baker Mayfield was only pressured on 16.7 percent of his dropbacks, so that’s an indicator that he had a pretty good game.
All season, when Mayfield has had control in a clean pocket, he’s been great. There was a mix of schemed open throws and well-placed passes that Mayfield had the confidence to rip.
7. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Skill Score: 9.30 | Production Score: 6.23 | Ranking Score: 7.77
This was Tua Tagovailoa’s worst game of the season. Houston’s coverage disguises often tripped him up, and that carried over to bad decisions when the Texans did not disguise coverages.
He threw three interceptions, and that could have been more. There was nothing working down the field, and he finished with just a 1.9-yard average depth of competition, and 41 percent of his completions failed to produce positive EPA.
8. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Skill Score: 9.78 | Production Score: 5.69 | Ranking Score: 7.74
The hits finally got to Patrick Mahomes — He was hit 11 times, his third straight game of 11 or more hits. His seven straight games of taking at least seven quarterback hits have tied for the longest streak since 2000.
Mahomes left the game early with an ankle sprain but said it was recovering faster than his previous ankle injury, and he was a full participant in practice on Tuesday, suggesting he should play on Saturday.
9. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Skill Score: 9.42 | Production Score: 6.01 | Ranking Score: 7.72
Jordan Love tied his highest success rate of the season, and both of those games were within the past three weeks.
More controlled throws have helped with the success rate, but if Love gets a favorable matchup down the field, he won’t hesitate to take it.
10. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 6.31 | Ranking Score: 7.70
Jalen Hurts had his most comfortable game as a passer. While the run game wasn’t working, the Eagles got 100 yards from both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as they combined for 23 of Hurts’s 32 targets.
In the first half, Hurts was able to speed up the process (complimentary) and get the ball out to his receivers in space. If Hurts can continue with that type of comfort and decisiveness in the pocket, this should be a dangerous passing game.
11. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Skill Score: 9.60 | Production Score: 5.54 | Ranking Score: 7.57
Matthew Stafford followed up an all-time performance last week with 5.9 yards per attempt and just 12 points on Thursday. It was a rough offensive outing for the Rams, but just enough was done to hold off the 49ers. Stafford was able to find Puka Nacua enough to get 97 yards out of the second-year receiver, but not much else was working.
One thing to note is that for the second game in a row, the Rams did not run a play from pistol. Instead, Stafford agin had over 20 percent of his snaps in empty. As the Rams push for the playoffs, they could be trusting the quarterback to win from those looks more often.
12. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Skill Score: 9.38 | Production Score: 5.76 | Ranking Score: 7.57
Kyler Murray’s first completion of the day was a shallow cross to Marvin Harrsion Jr. that went for 23 yards. That set the tone for the offense and found a way to win with easier answers.
Murray had a 3.9-yard average depth of completion, but that was done by taking advantage of what the New England defense was presenting and not forcing go balls and fades down the sidelines — a big improvement on what the offense has defaulted to at times this season.
13. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 5.70 | Ranking Score: 7.40
Brock Purdy struggled in the rain on Thursday night. In an offense that wasn’t clicking, Purdy tried going deep often, but there was nothing consistent about his throws.
The accuracy was off, and there were bad passes, one of which was intercepted in the end zone. The supporting cast didn’t help out Purdy, but it showed the limits of what he can do when not helped by the offense.
14. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 5.11 | Ranking Score: 7.10
This was the encapsulation of the Sam Darnold experience for Minnesota this season. It wasn’t Darnold’s best game — and might have been his worst from a strict accuracy perspective — but there were open big plays, and the offense was able to manage whatever mistakes were made.
Darnold was pressured on 42.9 percent of his dropbacks but mostly handled it well, which is where the floor has been raised this season without him spiraling in an attempt to make something happen when pressured.
15. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Skill Score: 9.32 | Production Score: 4.13 | Ranking Score: 6.73
Seeing what happened to Sam Howell behind the Seattle offensive line gives a little appreciation for how Geno Smith has handled himself all season.
There were still rough moments against the Packers, and Smith left with a knee injury, but it does not appear to be a significant injury, and he could play this week.
16. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Skill Score: 9.60 | Production Score: 3.69 | Ranking Score: 6.65
It should be more fun to watch Justin Herbert than it is. There were a few weeks when Herbert was feeling comfortable, scrambling more, and his insane passes were getting caught.
But we continue to see the limitations of the passing offense and the inconsistent blocking, especially when there isn’t a reliable run game to go to. Herbert has reverted back a bit to the robotic, trying-not-to-make-a-mistake version of himself instead of the freer player he was just a few weeks ago.
17. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Skill Score: 9.14 | Production Score: 3.87 | Ranking Score: 6.51
The Patriots are not a good team and do not have a well-structured offense, but Drake Maye is making the best of it. He routinely makes throws every game that makes you believe those are going to continue once there’s a better situation around him.
Maye started the game battling multiple bad snaps, but he was able to keep things moving and finished the game with positive EPA.
18. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Skill Score: 9.14 | Production Score: 3.57 | Ranking Score: 6.36
Russell Wilson had a rough game that showed the limits of this passing game without George Pickens. The Eagles only blitzed once, so there were plenty of defenders in coverage as Wilson tried to get the ball out quickly on designed fast check-down passes.
There just wasn’t any room to create space, and the offense was condensed, as 82 percent of Wilson’s throws were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
19. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Skill Score: 8.86 | Production Score: 3.74 | Ranking Score: 6.30
Aaron Rodgers now has back-to-back games with impressive production; objectively, the funniest time of the season for that to happen in games that do not matter at all.
This was the first game it looked like Rodgers and Davante Adams had played together before. There was a long 70-plus-yard touchdown on a blown coverage on mesh, but Rodgers and Adams also connected on a wild back shoulder throw to the sideline late in the game.
However, Rodgers still only had a 40.5 percent success rate against the worst defense in the league and the Jets were trailing until late in the fourth quarter.
20. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Skill Score: 9.58 | Production Score: 2.93 | Ranking Score: 6.26
Two touchdowns to Nico Collins looked like the highlight plays of the 2023 season.
The rest of the game looked like much of the same that we’ve seen in 2024. C.J. Stroud averaged 3.2 seconds to throw, was hit six times, and took four sacks. Nothing about the offense feels easy and nothing changed coming out of the bye.
21. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Skill Score: 8.62 | Production Score: 3.52 | Ranking Score: 6.07
This week’s biggest disconnect between how a player looked and how he produced goes to Mac Jones. Jones looked awful for much of this game — while being incredibly cocky during it.
Jones threw a few terrible passes. His first interception was nowhere close to where it should have been, and his game-ending pick might have been worse. But a steady diet of screens to Brian Thomas Jr. worked and the rookie receiver took one slant 41 yards and another 19 yards for a touchdown.
22. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 3.09 | Ranking Score: 6.07
For much of this game, Bo Nix tried harder to get a Colts win than the Colts did. Any time Nix tried to push the ball down the field, it just didn’t work. Here’s a table from 1st & 10 this week:
Nix threw three bad picks. His first came with his happy feet in the pocket, unnecessarily jumping on the throw. The second was airmailed, and the third was left late and inside, allowing the defender to jump the route.
23. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Skill Score: 9.16 | Production Score: 2.90 | Ranking Score: 6.03
Things keep looking like they’re getting worse for Caleb Williams. There’s less comfort in the offensive structure and behind the offensive line, and neither one of those things is proving him wrong for not trusting them.
It feels like all the progress made since the initial coordinator switch has been lost. Just three weeks ago, Williams looked better against this same defense, with 0.07 EPA per play. Williams averaged -0.37 EPA per play in Week 15 as the Vikings blitzed more than they did in the first meeting.
24. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Skill Score: 9.12 | Production Score: 2.81 | Ranking Score: 5.97
The start of this game was fine, but then everything spiraled after the Jonathan Taylor fumble. Again, the film doesn’t look as bad as the numbers, but it’s hard to keep saying that when not much changes from week to week.
There’s still a disconnect between Anthony Richardson and his receivers, and there are few easy avenues for success in this offense outside of Richardson's runs.
25. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Skill Score: 8.86 | Production Score: 2.11 | Ranking Score: 5.49
Bryce Young had a rough game that looked closer to his rookie season than what we’ve seen from him during his return to the lineup.
Pressure really got to Young, who was sacked six times on 10 hits after so much of his success this season came from avoiding those negative plays under pressure.
26. Cooper Rush Dallas Cowboys
Skill Score: 8.56 | Production Score: 2.37 | Ranking Score: 5.47
Cooper Rush had a fine game, getting the ball out quickly and finding CeeDee Lamb in space.
Lamb rightfully saw 45 percent of Rush’s targets, but there were also nice touchdown throws in the back right corner of the end zone to Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks.
27. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Skill Score: 8.52 | Production Score: 2.25 | Ranking Score: 5.39
O’Connell is expected to return to the lineup after Desmond Ridder revenge game against the Falcons was just proof of why the team had to move on.
28. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans
Skill Score: 8.70 | Production Score: 1.64 | Ranking Score: 5.17
Mason Rudolph will get the start, with Will Levis sent to the bench after another rough game. The Levis experience is just too inconsistent, and the awareness level is too low to sustain any type of offense.
Rudolph came in and played fairly well against the Bengals (a low bar) but mostly completed short passes that gained yards after the catch.
29. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
Skill Score: 8.80 | Production Score: 0.52 | Ranking Score: 4.66
After being passed over for Jake Haener to make the start against Washington, Spencer Rattler came in and brought the Saints back to setting to a 2-point conversion attempt to try to win the game. Rattler looked more confident and decisive than he did during his initial starting stretch when Derek Carr first missed time. Those games were disasters, so we’ll see how Rattler fares with more extended time again.
30. 'Tim DeLock', New York Giants
Skill Score: 8.44 | Production Score: 0.00 | Ranking Score: 4.22
It doesn’t matter who the Giants start. This placeholder is an amalgamation of the three options. They’re all bad. Tim Boyle, who objectively looked the best of the three quarterbacks who have played since moving on from Daniel Jones in his limited time against the Ravens, had a 19.2 percent success rate.
31. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns
Skill Score: 8.78 | Production Score: 2.94 | Ranking Score: 5.86
Jameis Winston was benched after his worst game of the season, with five sacks and three interceptions. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will now get the start for Week 16.
On his 11 dropbacks against the Chiefs, he was pressured six times. It was not a great relief showing, but it could look a little better with a full week of game planning for him.
32. Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons
The switch has been made. The physical limitations of Kirk Cousins have gotten worse instead of better as the season progressed and his Monday night showing against the Raiders was easily the worst by how it looked and both EPA per play and success rate.
Michael Penix Jr. will now start the final three games of the season, hoping to keep the Falcons in the playoff race.
Penix is known for his big arm, but even during his final college season, he only had sixth-percentile on-target rates to the short and intermediate levels of the field. His completion percentage was only in the 47th percentile on deep passes, even though it was impressive in all three areas.
As the rookies did, he’ll start at the bottom of these rankings by default, and we’ll get his full grades once he plays.
Week 16 Full Quarterback Rankings
