NFL Analysis
1/1/25
14 min read
2024 NFL Week 18 QB Power Rankings: Baker Mayfield Keeps Climbing
Welcome to Week 18 of the quarterback rankings.
These are not your typical quarterback rankings, which is why you might see some differences from what you’d expect to see in a ranking system that was built off a box score or reputation.
As a reminder, our new grading system combines the skill set rankings (how good a quarterback is in a vacuum) and production (based on a composite of EPA per play and success rate from TruMedia) for the 2024 season.
The hope is that the mix of the skill set rankings and the production rankings will give a more complete picture of what is actually happening on the field during the 2024 season.
The skill set rankings are from me, watching and grading each quarterback in the individual categories. If you feel like I hate your favorite quarterback, those are the rankings you should be looking at and yelling at me for.
The skill score is then combined with the production score to get the full rankings.
The full rankings, including each individual skill set, will be at the bottom of this article. If you liked the old rankings, you can filter by Skill Score. If you're more interested in production, you can filter by that, too.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings. With the production rankings, we’ll start ranking new quarterbacks after their first start or if an official move is made.
With that out of the way, here are the new quarterback rankings heading into Week 17. All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
Week 18 Quarterback Rankings
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.96 | Ranking Score: 8.83
Lamar Jackson had one of his best games of the season on Christmas Day, needing just 15 attempts to have an efficient day of 0.74 EPA per play.
In each of the past six games, Jackson has had an average depth of target of at least 9.0 as the focus on the run game has opened up those shots down the field. The whole operation for the Ravens is working better on those deep passes.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.55 | Ranking Score: 8.63
Josh Allen had two passing touchdowns and a rushing score on a sneak against a Jets team that didn’t put up much of a fight in a 40-14 game.
He was pressured on 42.9 percent of his dropbacks but did not take a sack. He’ll get one more brief chance to play against the Patriots to make his MVP case this week.
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 8.15 | Ranking Score: 8.63
Jared Goff continued to do what he’s done all season. There were a lot of throws to Amon-Ra St. Brown that moved the chains, and then there were opportunities to get the ball to Jameson Williams in space.
Goff has mastered the rhythm and timing of this offense and will now be asked to get the most out of it in a divisional title game and the playoffs as the Lions look destined for shootouts the rest of the way.
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Skill Score: 9.52 | Production Score: 6.88 | Ranking Score: 8.20
Joe Burrow had the kind of game he’s been having for most of the season, but this time, the Bengals won. With Patrick Surtain covering Ja’Marr Chase for most of the game, Burrow found tight ends to start the game and then relied on Tee Higgins in the second half and overtime.
It was his second-highest success rate of the season (60 percent), and it came against one of the league’s best defenses.
5. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Skill Score: 9.24 | Production Score: 7.07 | Ranking Score: 8.16
Tagvoalia didn’t play in Week 17 because of a hip injury, and his status for Week 18 is unknown.
6. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Skill Score: 9.78 | Production Score: 6.15 | Ranking Score: 7.97
The Chiefs have found a groove on offense. Against the Steelers, Patrick Mahomes averaged 2.25 seconds to throw, his quickest time of the season. That helps keep pressure away (17.9 percent of his dropbacks), and he found receivers in space.
This is the type of offense the Chiefs can build around to keep the down-to-down consistency while throwing in some deep shots in an effort to create explosive plays.
7. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 6.77 | Ranking Score: 7.93
Baker Mayfield continues to make the most out of the Liam Coen offense. Tampa Bay continually throws out different looks and gets Mayfield to throw quickly to open spots.
That also gives him the confidence to rip throws to a covered Mike Evans. Just a few weeks after having one of his worst games of the season against the Panthers, Mayfield had his best (0.66 EPA per play and 62.9 percent success rate) against them in Week 17.
8. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Skill Score: 9.20 | Production Score: 6.60 | Ranking Score: 7.90
Jayden Daniels took the Sunday night game over when he started using his legs. His scrambling wasn’t just the get-out-of-jail-free card it’s been throughout the season — it was the catalyst for the offense in the second half.
Daniels had eight scrambles, three of which gained 10 or more yards. This was the most controlled we’ve seen Daniels in and out of the pocket as he’s continued to grow there throughout the season.
9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 6.56 | Ranking Score: 7.83
The duality of the Brock Purdy Experience. For a half, Purdy was able to take advantage of a depleted Detroit roster with 1.1 EPA per play.
But in the second half, one of his biggest flaws showed up with multiple high throws over the middle. Two of those turned into interceptions.
10. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 6.30 | Ranking Score: 7.69
Jalen Hurts did not play in Week 16 due to a concussion and won’t play in Week 18 as Nick Sirianni stated he'd rest starters with the No. 2 seed locked up and won't have Saquon Barkley attempt to break the single-season rushing record. Hurts also remains in concussion protocol.
11. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Skill Score: 9.42 | Production Score: 5.88 | Ranking Score: 7.65
Minnesota had a plan for Jordan Love and the Packers to play man coverage early in the first half and on third downs.
Against man coverage, Love averaged -0.36 EPA per play, and against zone, he averaged 0.39 EPA per play. Love looked rushed and out of sorts early in the game, which led to some poor passes.
12. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Skill Score: 9.38 | Production Score: 5.77 | Ranking Score: 7.58
Kyler Murray was effective for most of the game against the Rams, though he has started to make more sacks during the past few weeks. He hasn’t handled pressure nearly as well as he did at the beginning of the season.
Through Week 10, Murray was first in EPA per play under pressure (0.16). Since Arizona’s Week 11 bye, he ranks 32nd (-0.76) with no touchdowns and seven interceptions, including one of his two late picks in the fourth quarter.
13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Skill Score: 9.60 | Production Score: 5.52 | Ranking Score: 7.56
After lighting up the Bills in a shootout, the Rams’ passing offense has been fine. Matthew Stafford has averaged 5.9, 5.8, and 5.9 yards per attempt in the past three games.
He hasn’t been sacked in the past four games, but that hasn’t led to more consistent offense. Despite throwing 81 percent of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage against the Cardinals, he only completed 53 percent of his passes.
14. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 5.86 | Ranking Score: 7.48
Sam Darnold continued his impressive run of making good throws and finding the right answers when presented to him.
Early in the game, Justin Jefferson was used as more of a decoy and the Vikings threw a bunch to T.J. Hockenson and the other receivers. One thing Minnesota did was get in a mix of no huddle. Darnold went 7-of-7 for 106 yards and a touchdown on those plays.
15. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Skill Score: 9.60 | Production Score: 5.11 | Ranking Score: 7.36
Justin Herbert was again fantastic, his second game in a row with more than 0.40 EPA per play. He was able to get the ball down the field, and the connection plus creativity with Ladd McConkey has been great during the past few weeks.
The passing offense is hitting its stride as the playoffs approach, which is the best-case scenario for this team.
16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Skill Score: 9.32 | Production Score: 4.66 | Ranking Score: 6.99
It was a rough game for Geno Smith against the Bears. He was pressured on 39.8 percent of his dropbacks, hit on seven dropbacks (25 percent), and sacked three times.
He only had a 3.2-yard aDOT but averaged 7.0 yards per attempt. Still, 41 percent of his completions failed to produce positive EPA. This just remains a small margin for error offense, where Smith has to be nearly perfect throughout a game for the offense to function.
17. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Skill Score: 9.14 | Production Score: 4.81 | Ranking Score: 6.98
Drake Maye averaged 2.35 seconds to throw and was still pressured on 48.4 percent of his dropbacks. That’s an insane rate for getting the ball out that quickly — just an overall failure upfront.
Even when Maye was able to get the ball out, there wasn’t much help from the supporting cast with a lack of space created by the receivers. It was a disappointing follow-up to three really good performances despite Patriots losses.
18. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Skill Score: 9.14 | Production Score: 4.25 | Ranking Score: 6.70
Russell Wilson has been pressured on at least 40 percent of his dropbacks in three of his past four games and four of his past six. There’s some blame on Wilson himself as he holds the ball, and his attempts at extending plays have been his worst quality as a starter this season.
He hasn’t created an explosive pass under pressure in any of his previous three games. George Pickens returned against the Chiefs but wasn’t the cure-all for the offense.
19. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 4.24 | Ranking Score: 6.64
For most of the game, the Broncos had been throwing short and trying to take advantage of the lack of tackling from the Cincinnati defense. In the first half, Bo Nix had a 1.9-yard aDOT and 0.8-yard average depth of completion.
Then, in the second half, he threw a huge deep touchdown to Marvin Mims, the longest through the air tracked by Next Gen Stats this season, and then found Mims again for a game-tying touchdown on the run on a fourth-and-1 with eight seconds left.
20. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Skill Score: 9.58 | Production Score: 3.52 | Ranking Score: 6.55
C.J. Stroud had his worst game by EPA per play and success rate on Christmas Day against the Ravens. There are so many free rushers coming against the Texans through stunts, sim pressures, and blitzes that Stroud is continually under duress quickly.
The offense still hasn’t figured out how to protect against those looks, and Stroud was hit 10 times for the second game in a row.
21. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Skill Score: 8.52 | Production Score: 4.50 | Ranking Score: 6.51
Aidan O’Connell was able to avoid sacks and throw to Brock Bowers, which is enough to have a productive day against the New Orleans defense.
Without much fear of a pass rush, O’Connell was willing to go deep with a 9.7-yard aDOT and 70 percent of completions went for a first down or touchdown.
22. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Skill Score: 8.94 | Production Score: 3.86 | Ranking Score: 6.40
Michael Penix Jr. was solid but not quite as impressive as his debut.
The Falcons went to trying more deep passes (12.5 aDOT), but Penix Jr. only went 1-of-9 on throws of at least 20 air yards against the Commanders. He finished with a 33.3 percent success rate overall.
23. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Skill Score: 8.62 | Production Score: 4.17 | Ranking Score: 6.40
Throwing to Brian Thomas Jr. is the secret that unlocks everything for the Jacksonville offense. Mac Jones found him seven times for 91 yards and a touchdown. Jones was only pressured on 19.2 percent of his dropbacks yet he took a sack on 40 percent of his pressures.
Despite that, he still averaged 0.31 EPA per play with a 56 percent success rate because the Jacksonville receivers were able to get open.
24. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Skill Score: 8.86 | Production Score: 3.91 | Ranking Score: 6.39
By EPA per play, this was the worst game of Aaron Rodgers’ career at -1.04. The Bills blitzed 4.5 percent of the time but still pressured Rodgers 36.4 percent of the time.
He did not throw a deep pass and was picked off twice. He was replaced by Tyrod Taylor, who came in and led two touchdown drives.
25. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Skill Score: 9.16 | Production Score: 3.58 | Ranking Score: 6.37
Seattle pressured Caleb Williams on 57.9 percent of his dropbacks, and there was never much hope of sustaining an offense with that type of pressure while he was hit 11 times and took seven sacks.
It’s hard to have an offense play in structure when everything breaks down so early in the play. He only had a 0.9-yard average depth of completion.
26. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans
Skill Score: 8.70 | Production Score: 3.88| Ranking Score: 6.29
Mason Rudolph was pressured on 47 percent of his dropbacks, but he was able to manage the pocket well enough to only get sacked three times.
He threw to the middle of the field often, a big weakness in the Jacksonville defense. This allowed for some chunk plays and a 51.3 percent success rate.
27. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Skill Score: 9.12 | Production Score: 3.39 | Ranking Score: 6.26
Richardson did not play in Week 17 in the Colts’ loss to the Giants.
28. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 2.99 | Ranking Score: 6.05
There were swings of highs and lows from Bryce Young’s day against the Buccaneers. Carolina was never in it by the score by Young made a bunch of impressive throws down the field while getting Adam Theilen to 110 yards and two touchdowns.
Young was sacked five times but continually showed a willingness to stay in the pocket and attempt those throws with pressure in his face.
29. Cooper Rush Dallas Cowboys
Skill Score: 8.56 | Production Score: 3.11 | Ranking Score: 5.84
The Eagles picked off Cooper Rush twice, one a bad pick-six that CJ Gardner-Johnson read all the way.
Rush tried to get the ball out quickly to avoid the Philly pass rush, but many throws were inaccurate, and there wasn’t a lot of room to run after the catch after short completions.
30. Drew Lock, New York Giants
Skill Score: 8.44 | Production Score: 2.69 | Ranking Score: 5.57
OK, this is the strangest thing written in these rankings all season — Drew Lock finished the win against the Colts with 1.18 EPA per play. It was one of the best statistical games we’ve seen this season.
Lock was just kind of on everything. He got the benefit of some big catch-and-runs from Malik Nabers, but he also threw 30 percent of his passes into the intermediate level and went 5-of-7 for 123 yards and a touchdown on those throws.
31. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
Skill Score: 8.66 | Production Score: 1.28 | Ranking Score: 4.97
Spencer Rattler was constantly under duress in this game and threw two bad interceptions. One was a high throw to Cedrick Wilson and the other was a late post throw that the safety was all over.
There are still some fun highs with Rattler, but there’s little to no control of the down-to-down consistency.
32. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns
Skill Score: 8.48 | Production Score: -0.73 | Ranking Score: 3.88
Nothing worked for the Cleveland passing offense. Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a 28.8 percent success rate, the worst of the week, and only 29.2 percent of his completions went for a first down or touchdown.
Week 18 Full Quarterback Rankings
