NFL Analysis
10/30/24
20 min read
2024 NFL Week 9 QB Power Rankings: Multiple Star Passers Drop
Welcome to Week 9 of the quarterback rankings.
These are not your typical quarterback rankings, which is why you might see some differences from what you’d expect to see in a ranking system that was built off a box score or reputation.
As a reminder, our new grading system combines the skill set rankings (how good a quarterback is in a vacuum) and production (based on a composite of EPA per play and success rate from TruMedia) for the 2024 season.
The hope is that the mix of the skill set rankings and the production rankings will give a more complete picture of what is actually happening on the field during the 2024 season.
The full rankings, including each individual skill set, will be at the bottom of this article. If you liked the old rankings, you can filter by Skill Score. If you're more interested in production, you can filter by that, too.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings. With the production rankings, we’ll start ranking new quarterbacks after their first start or if an official move is made.
With that out of the way, here are the new quarterback rankings heading into Week 9. All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
Week 9 Quarterback Rankings
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.72 | Ranking Score: 8.71
The Ravens lost to the Browns, but Lamar Jackson was not the reason. Multiple big plays, including a Rashod Bateman drop due to the sun and Zay Flowers slipping on a route that would have been an open touchdown, were left on the field.
Jackson still led a 91-yard drive with under five minutes to go in the fourth quarter that produced a go-ahead touchdown and started with a 22-yard run at the 9-yard line.
2. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Skill Score: 9.20 | Production Score: 7.67 | Ranking Score: 8.44
Jayden Daniels technically had his least productive game of the season, but given he did not practice all week outside of a walkthrough, he still managed to get Washington down into scoring position on multiple drives and keep the final play alive long enough to attempt the Hail Mary, that’s still a great day.
Throughout the game, Daniels was forced to make harder throws by hanging in the pocket and pushing the ball down the field because the Bears wanted to take away the shallow options. At 57.3 percent, this was his lowest expected completion percentage of the season, according to Next Gen Stats.
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 7.64 | Ranking Score: 8.37
The Lions didn’t need much of Jared Goff in a 52-14 win. Detroit consistently got short fields, and Goff was still sacked four times to produce 52 net passing yards.
Still, Goff was good in the scoring opportunities with three touchdowns. There’s not too much to take away from Goff’s performance, so we don’t have to linger on it too much.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Skill Score: 9.66 | Production Score: 7.02 | Ranking Score: 8.34
Josh Allen continues to play well as the Buffalo offense finds its groove. He’s taking smarter throws and mixing them in with deeper shots. Against the Seahawks, he barely threw any intermediate passes but had 20.6 percent of his passes travel at least 20 air yards.
There’s a connection with rookie Keon Coleman developing, and the receiver has earned the trust to go up and get some jump balls. The chemistry with Amari Cooper is still coming, with Allen’s interception in the game on a route when Cooper slipped, but we should expect more from that going forward.
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Skill Score: 9.74 | Production Score: 6.09 | Ranking Score: 7.92
Patrick Mahomes went back to Travis Kelce well against the Raiders, which was needed. Kelce had 10 catches, 90 yards, and a touchdown on 12 targets. Averaging nine yards per catch isn’t the best efficiency, but eight of those 10 catches produced positive EPA for the offense. That will work.
DeAndre Hopkins was not heavily involved in his first game, but we already got a glimpse of what his presence could mean for Mahomes. On a third-and-7 early in the first quarter, Hopkins had a late short motion to the outside in a trips bunch, then released inside and found an opening for a 13-yard gain. Having that type of receiver will greatly help the offense.
6. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 6.50 | Ranking Score: 7.79
In his first game without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield was productive enough to have some optimism going forward. There were some mistakes, like firing a throw off a flea-flicker that was intercepted by Jessie Bates, that weren’t great, but there was more good than bad during the game.
This is a good offensive structure that has created open-throwing windows, and Mayfield has a trust that has allowed him to fire the ball with confidence. That remains the biggest thing with Baker — when the confidence is there, he can be a productive passer. A pivot to targeting tight ends and running backs worked and should carry this offense until Evans returns.
7. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Skill Score: 9.34 | Production Score: 5.97 | Ranking Score: 7.66
Let’s focus on Tee Higgins and the impact he has when he’s on the field. Since 2021, there’s been some dropoff in Joe Burrow’s production when Higgins isn’t on the field. Yet, when Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t been on the field, the offense has still worked.
Now, this isn’t a take that Higgins is better or more important than Chase (and the Higgins-only sample is the smallest of those three by far, but still around 150 plays), but it shows how having two good receivers is the best case for this Bengals offense.
Against the Eagles, we saw that Burrow can play well with just Chase on the field, but it takes away the offense's highest upside. With the Bengals at 3-5, these are the thoughts they need to have about constructing the roster for 2025 and beyond.
8. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 5.97 | Ranking Score: 7.54
Sunday night brought back the Shanahan offense, and Brock Purdy had one of his best games of the season. Half of his passes came either off play-action or from empty. Those are the ways San Francisco can help scheme open plays in the passing game. Purdy has his second-highest success rate, lowest average depth of target, and highest yards after the catch per reception in a game this season.
Mixing in the traditional Shanahan concepts with the straight dropback game the team leaned into earlier in the season should produce the best version of Purdy. With Christian McCaffrey possibly returning in Week 10, that should be a big boost, too.
9. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Skill Score: 8.96 | Production Score: 6.05 | Ranking Score: 7.51
For the first time this season, Jalen Hurts looked dynamic as a runner. That helped open up more passing plays in the middle of the field, and Hurts took advantage. When the Bengals tried to blitz Hurts, he had answers. Going with four or fewer rushers didn’t work out for Cincinnati, either.
Hurts is going to keep putting up good production (he’s seventh in production score) because he can still find the big plays to his good receivers — see the DeVonta Smith touchdown — and he’s still automatic on short-yardage, which included two tush-push touchdowns and another score on the ground. That provides a fairly high floor for the offense.
10. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Skill Score: 9.30 | Production Score: 5.66 | Ranking Score: 7.48
It’s amazing how much better a passing offense can look when the top receiver isn’t running static routes down the sideline. Kyler Murray hit Marvin Harrison Jr. on a bunch of crossing routes and the connection between the two looked much better. Add that to how Murray has found tight end Trey McBride, which is a potentially dominant pass-catching duo.
Murray averaged 8.5 yards per attempt and put up an 89.3 QBR in a game in which he only ran for 19 yards. That’s an incredible development for the Arizona offense.
11. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 5.50 | Ranking Score: 7.27
By EPA per play, 2024 (0.11) is tied for the second-best first eight weeks of a season in Kirk Cousins’ career as a starter. It’s tied with 2016 and 2020, behind only 2019 (0.25). This is remarkable given the current situation — he’s 36 years old, returning from an Achilles tear, and he can’t really move that well. Considering how the season started, to be here is impressive.
Cousins rebounded from a poor Week 7 to have his highest success rate and yards per attempt in a game this season. He’s got the formula down. The Falcons are still leaning into the pistol looks, with Cosuins getting the ball out quickly.
He’s been decisive and accurate with a continued growing connection with Drake London. Getting Kyle Pitts involved, as he was with two touchdowns against Tampa Bay, could raise the ceiling of the passing offense even more.
12. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Skill Score: 9.52 | Production Score: 4.93 | Ranking Score: 7.23
Matthew Stafford got Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back and immediately looked like the top quarterback he’d been without having to throw to Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell as his top targets. Nacua and Kupp combined for 17 targets in their first game back. Nacua was the go-to in the open field, while Kupp had a touchdown.
The offensive line has also started to get healthier, which has made Stafford’s life a bit easier. With more intended starters on the field together, offensive production could take off during the second half of the season.
13. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Skill Score: 9.30 | Production Score: 4.96 | Ranking Score: 7.13
Jordan Love was clearly hampered for most of the game against Jacksonville but was still productive enough to get some positive plays in and avoid the limited pressure the Jaguars were able to create.
There’s much better chemistry with Romeo Doubs, though the red zone interception was late and allowed the defender to jump the route.
His 18.2 percent explosive pass rate made up for some of the misses, and that might be where the Packers live if he plays and isn’t 100 percent. Those big plays will be there because the arm, anticipation, and scheme are too good not to have them pop up.
14. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Skill Score: 9.32 | Production Score: 4.61 | Ranking Score: 6.97
Stop if you heard this before: Geno Smith was derailed by an offensive line that couldn’t hold up against the opposing pass rush. It just wasn’t Smith’s day, and that was evident in the interception that was tipped on an attempted screen pass into the arms of a defensive lineman. Even the plays the Seahawks were trying to avoid the pressure couldn’t work.
Without DK Metcalf, and given the pass rush, Seattle relied on screens and throws to the flat. Smith only averaged a 2.9-yard aDOT, which is well below what he’s been doing for much of the season.
15. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Skill Score: 9.20 | Production Score: 4.62 | Ranking Score: 6.91
Tua Tagovailoa returned, and the Miami offense looked like it was supposed to. The quickness of his release not only got the ball into places down the field that the other quarterbacks couldn’t, but it also forced the defense to spread out and vacate the middle of the field, which opened up more successful running back targets.
Arizona’s defense is structured to stop the deep ball with some of its three-safety sets, so the Miami offense wasn’t as explosive as it could have been. However, the fact that it looked so much closer to our baseline expectation of this offense is a good sign.
16. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Skill Score: 9.06 | Production Score: 4.74 | Ranking Score: 6.90
Trevor Lawrence had his second-best success rate of the season, building on last week’s performance. The deep pass was more available in this game, with just 59 percent of his passes traveling 10 or fewer air yards and a season-high 27.3 percent explosive play rate.
We’ll see how the offense shifts with Christian Kirk out for the season with a broken collarbone. That’s going to put a bigger emphasis on Gabe Davis winning on the outside, while Brian Thomas Jr. has been the most reliable target in every area of the field.
17. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Skill Score: 8.80 | Production Score: 4.59 | Ranking Score: 6.70
Jameis Winston’s first start was exactly what should have been expected. The Cleveland offense immediately looked like a professional offense, and there was a clear shift in how the ball came out, with Winston not trying to extend plays. His average time to throw was 2.41 seconds.
But he also tried to throw multiple interceptions, one that could (and should) have ended the game before the late go-ahead touchdown. Still, it’s a massive improvement from what the Browns had run out at the position before this, even if some future turnover-worthy passes get caught.
18. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Skill Score: 9.58 | Production Score: 3.71 | Ranking Score: 6.65
How much more can C.J. Stroud take? Stefon Diggs tore his ACL and will be out for the remainder of the season. With Nico Collins still on injured reserve, Stroud is going into a short week against the Jets with Tank Dell, John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson as his wide receivers. It’s not ideal.
We’ll keep mentioning this every week, but Stroud’s production is what’s keeping him so far down these rankings as he’s been a victim of his environment. That environment keeps getting worse.
19. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 4.12 | Ranking Score: 6.58
For most of the season, the Vikings have been so far ahead they’ve been able to weather the few plays when Sam Darnold makes a mistake. That was always the hope that the structure would be enough to produce more good than bad.
The irony is Darnold played what might have been his best game of the season on Thursday night — his 61.3 percent success rate was easily his highest of the year — but the margin for error was so much smaller with the Rams offense cutting through the Vikings defense.
That made a late, bad second-down sack with five minutes left matter so much more than it would have in previous games and nearly sealed the game for Los Angeles.
20. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Skill Score: 8.92 | Production Score: 4.12 | Ranking Score: 6.52
The switch to Russell Wilson has worked. There’s no way around that. Wilson has been calm in the pocket and steady with pushing the ball down the field and outside the numbers. That’s worked for George Pickens, but also Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson got involved against the Giants.
Wilson is still running a high pressure-to-sack rate — it was 40 percent on Monday night — but the good plays outweighed that and could for the rest of the season.
21. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts
Skill Score: 8.9 | Production Score: 4.08 | Ranking Score: 6.49
The change has been made. Joe Flacco will replace Anthony Richardson as the starter. Despite Richardson’s low ranking on this list (he would have been 28th this week), it feels too early to make this switch or give up on Richardson in the long term.
I’m of the opinion that Richardson’s first half against Houston was not nearly as bad as the 2-of-15 stat line suggested. But those kinds of performances kept piling up for Richardson while the big plays weren't coming often enough to make up for the lack of consistency.
Flacco brings a bit more consistency, even if it’s not a huge upgrade. There’s some benefit to that, which the Colts are prioritizing at the moment.
22. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Skill Score: 9.38 | Production Score: 3.34 | Ranking Score: 6.36
There’s just nothing going on for the Dallas offense right now. It’s not Dak Prescott’s fault. It’s continually evident how he needs to be perfect for this offense to do anything.
His first interception was throwing to KaVontae Turpin deep, and then Turpin dropped a deep pass later in the game. That’s too much Turpin on offense, even though he only ran a route on 30 percent of the team dropbacks.
The Cowboys look static and stale, and without a talent advantage outside of the interior offensive line and CeeDee Lamb, it’s impossible to live that way.
23. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Skill Score: 9.16 | Production Score: 3.41 | Ranking Score: 6.29
After weeks of linear progression, the first three quarters of Week 8 looked like the first two weeks of the season. Interior pressure wrecked whatever the offense was trying to do, and Caleb Williams took in on himself to try to extend plays. After weeks of leaning into — and thriving with — the quick game, Williams couldn’t get that going.
Yet, he still was able to lead what would have been a go-ahead drive if not for a fumbled handoff to an offensive lineman and then come back with a go-ahead touchdown drive after that. The highlight was getting out of the pocket, avoiding a sack, and finding Keenan Allen for a 22-yard gain.
24. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Skill Score: 9.50 | Production Score: 3.02 | Ranking Score: 6.26
We’re officially back in the “Justin Herbert is playing really well but there is no production to show for it” stage. Herbert threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns but still only managed a 41 percent success rate on Sunday.
He’s been the third-highest blitzed quarterback this season despite historically being good against it. He’s still ninth in EPA per play against the blitz this season. But it shows the lack of fear defenses have for anything else on the offense, leaving fewer resources back in coverage.
If Ladd McConkey can be a thing, and his 111 yards against the Saints were a good start, then that could be something defenses have to respect, which will, in turn, give Herbert some more time in clean pockets.
25. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Skill Score: 9.06 | Production Score: 3.34 | Ranking Score: 6.20
Aaron Rodgers was mostly fine on Sunday, but we’re at a point with the Jets where mostly fine isn’t going to be good enough. In that “mostly fine,” there were also typical Rodgers errors, such as taking too much time to get the play set up and called at the line of scrimmage, forcing either a timeout or a delay of game.
The Jets have the second-most delay-of-game penalties this season (six), and the Packers were third-worst with eight in 2022.
He still has some great throws in his bag, but those haven’t been enough to lift the offense.
26. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 3.18 | Ranking Score: 6.11
Drake Maye looked good in his short time against the Jets before a concussion took him out of the game. He was only 3-of-6 when he left, but he had three rushing attempts for 46 yards, including a 17-yard touchdown. His mobility and pocket management have been his best assets while navigating behind the offensive line.
Maye is unlikely to play this week with a tough turnaround to clear the concussion protocol in a week, but even after Jacoby Brissett helped the Patriots upset the Jets, it’s been clear that Maye provides an upgrade at the position now and for the future.
27. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers
Skill Score: 8.82 | Production Score: 2.85 | Ranking Score: 5.84
Andy Dalton missed the game because of an injury suffered in a car accident last week. With no clear commitment to a quarterback by head coach Dave Canales early in the week, we’ll keep Dalton listed here.
Whoever plays for the Panthers will be down a receiver with Diontae Johnson traded to the Ravens. That leaves Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker as intriguing young receiver options. As someone high on those two during the draft process, that could be fun to watch, but it likely won’t make the quarterback’s job easier in 2024.
28. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Skill Score: 8.80 | Production Score: 2.66 | Ranking Score: 5.73
The Giants lived in the screen game early while trying to avoid the Pittsburgh pass rush. But by the end of the game, Daniel Jones took four sacks, including a strip sack in the red zone when he failed to motion a tight end to help chip T.J. Watt. Jones admitted after the game he was so caught up in getting the coverage straight, he forgot to call for the motion. Not great.
Outside of a few runs, Jones does not do much particularly well. Even when he’s trying to do more quarterback-y things, his flaws show — like when he attempted a holeshot against Cover-2 but didn’t have the arm to fit it in before Darius Slayton was hit hard by Minkah Fitzpatrick.
29. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Skill Score: 8.62 | Production Score: 2.34 | Ranking Score: 5.48
Bo Nix had his best game as a pro against the Panthers — though “best game of the season against the Panthers” has been common this year.
Still, Nix was active off play-action and was accurate to the intermediate part of the field. It was easily his best game while throwing outside the pocket. Typically, when he escapes, he’s trying to run or forces a pass into a tight window. But in Week 8, he went 6-of-9 for 9.2 yards per attempt and two touchdowns on throws outside the pocket.
30. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders
Skill Score: 8.62 | Production Score: 1.15 | Ranking Score: 4.89
Gardner Minshew was pressured often and got the ball out quickly, which mostly kept the offense from having a high volume of negative plays. But his five sacks taken were enough negatives to hinder any production.
The slot fade touchdown to Jakobi Meyers while getting hit by Chris Jones might have been his best throw of the season.
31. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans
Skill Score: 8.70 | Production Score: 0.45 | Ranking Score: 4.58
Every Titans quarterback is Will Levis.
32. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
Skill Score: 8.80 | Production Score: -1.25 | Ranking Score: 3.78
Spencer Rattler, understandably, looked completely overwhelmed against the Chargers. With the offensive line depleted and nothing outside of Chris Olave (107 yards on eight catches and 14 targets), Rattler was never comfortable.
The Chargers barely blitzed Rattler (18.5 percent) and only pressured him on 25 percent of his dropbacks, but the rookie couldn’t get much going. He took three sacks while throwing short often and he was eventually replaced by Jake Haener.
Derek Carr could be back as early as this week.
Week 9 Full Rankings Breakdown
