NFL Draft
4/15/25
9 min read
2025 NFL Draft: Predicting This Year's Biggest Draft-Day Surprises
We are just days away from the 2025 NFL Draft, and if we’ve learned anything through the years, it’s that the draft is incredibly unpredictable. Who would have thought that six quarterbacks would have been selected inside the top 12 last season? Or that Jahmyr Gibbs would be picked at No. 12 during the 2023 NFL Draft?
The NFL Draft is so much fun because there are surprises and shocking moments at every turn. But what picks or decisions could leave us flabbergasted this year? Let’s take a swing and predict the five biggest draft day surprises this year:
Biggest 2025 NFL Draft-Day Surprises
Matthew Golden Is The First Wide Receiver Drafted
The 2025 wide receiver class isn’t a top-heavy group, as most of the talent lies on Day 2. But it wasn’t that long ago that Tetairoa McMillan was viewed as the clear-cut top receiver in this class (not including Travis Hunter), and it sure seemed like a lock that he would be a top-10 selection. Back in January, his overall ranking was No. 6 in mock drafts, and he was in consideration for the No. 4 pick to New England.
However, as we inch toward the draft, there is a good chance that McMillan will fall outside the top 12, and several receivers could be selected ahead of him. While McMillan is still the odds-on favorite to be the first receiver to be drafted, it’s not a smart bet at this moment.
The Dallas Cowboys (No. 12) are the most likely team to select a receiver inside the top-12 picks, and all of the buzz out of Dallas is that they might prefer Matthew Golden because of his speed (4.29 40-yard dash). It would certainly constitute a reach picking Golden over McMillan, but there are several prominent draft analysts who now have Golden as the top receiver in the class.
Golden never had a 1,000-yard season during his college career, and the production profile doesn’t show someone who should be selected inside the top 15, let alone at No. 12 (or higher). However, teams love speed, and for whatever reason, they will ignore production in favor of athleticism at receiver.
At this point, it feels 50/50 who the first receiver will be, but Golden has been flying up draft boards for the last month, and it sure seems like McMillan could fall into the late teens. Don’t be surprised if teams like the Cowboys, Dolphins, and Seahawks all prefer Golden to McMillan because of the speed difference.
The Saints Will Not Draft A Quarterback At No. 9
The NFL had an all-time Friday news dump last weekend as it was reported by Ian Rapoport that Derek Carr, starting quarterback of the New Orleans Saints, has suffered a shoulder injury, which will put his 2025 season in doubt. Carr already missed a good chunk of the 2024 season with an oblique injury and was set to play on the final year of his contract.
The Saints have a new head coach in Kellen Moore and own the No. 9 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Naturally, they have been a common spot in mock drafts for a quarterback even before the Carr injury news. But is there a chance they still pass on a quarterback despite their massive need?
There is only one quarterback in this class who is a clear-cut top pick, and that is Cam Ward. All of the other quarterbacks in this class have major flaws, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart fall into the teens or early 20s.
The Saints aren’t ready to win now, and they are in Year 1 of the Kellen Moore rebuild. There is no reason to force a pick at quarterback unless you love the player, and we haven’t heard anything to suggest that they love the quarterbacks in this class. While it’s easy to slot Sanders or Dart into that selection, don’t be surprised if they pass on a quarterback in Round 1 and grab a positional player instead.
It’s worth mentioning that the Saints do own the No. 40 pick, as well as four other picks inside of the top 135 selections. It wouldn’t be a shock to see them use some of that draft capital to move up from No. 40 to select a quarterback, such as Dart, Jalen Milroe, etc, at the top of Round 2. But at this point, expect them to pass on one in Round 1.
The Patriots Will Not Select An Offensive Tackle At No. 4
Nearly every mock draft has the New England Patriots selecting an offensive tackle at No. 4 and it’s easy to understand why mock drafters have come to that conclusion. The Patriots had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season, and they have a young quarterback, Drake Maye, who needs more protection up front.
With the Patriots likely to miss out on Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter, it makes it easier to just select Will Campbell (LSU) or Armand Membou (Missouri) at that spot. However, the Patriots don’t always follow conventional wisdom when it comes to the draft. And that’s why we can’t completely rule out the possibility that they would select a player at a different position. Two names worth mentioning are Ashton Jeanty and Jalon Walker at No. 4.
Jeanty is the consensus third-best player in this class, and many believe he is the best running back prospect to enter the league since Saquon Barkley. While the positional value certainly isn’t there at No. 4, he is one of the best players in the class and would make New England’s offense far more dynamic.
Pairing him with Rhamondre Stevenson would give the Patriots one of the league’s best backfields and would take some pressure off Maye in Year 2.
Another name to watch is Jalon Walker, who is No. 7 on the expert consensus board. While he is a couple of spots behind Campbell and Membou, Walker is a do-it-all EDGE rusher who would fit well into Mike Vrabel’s defense. He does everything at a high level, and his leadership, combined with his non-stop motor, could endear him to New England’s coaching staff.
The Patriots have to find more pass-rush help this offseason, and Walker would easily be the best pass-rusher available at No. 4 after Carter.
The Patriots will likely draft several offensive linemen in this year's draft, but don’t be surprised if they wait until Day 2 to one. Tyler Booker, Grey Zabel, and Donovan Jackson could all be targets in Round 2 if they wait at the position. The Patriots have a chance to shake up the entire NFL Draft, depending on what they do at No. 4.
Omarion Hampton Isn’t The Second Running Back Drafted
There was a trend for a few weeks with Omarion Hampton being mocked inside the top-12 picks by some of the top NFL Draft experts (Mel Kiper Jr., Daniel Jeremiah). We’ve routinely seen him mocked to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 12, and there have been a handful of mocks with Ashton Jeanty going to the Raiders at No. 6 and Omarion Hampton going to the Bears at No. 10.
Hampton is a solid, well-rounded running back who projects as a heavy touch-total player at the next level. And for most NFL Draft experts, he is the clear-cut RB2 in this class behind Jeanty. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be drafted there. If it’s not Hampton, don’t be surprised if it’s TreVeyon Henderson.
Henderson has had a fantastic last 12 months. He put together a great senior season at Ohio State, helping lead them to a National Championship. He ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and has proven to be one of the most explosive players in the entire class.
While their games aren’t identical, the success of Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit could help out Henderson during the draft. NFL teams are always searching for dynamic playmakers who can make plays in space, and that’s what Henderson does at a high level.
He’s also an NFL-ready back who doesn’t fumble and excels in pass protection. Those traits will endear him to offensive coordinators around the league and it wouldn’t a shock to see a team like the Denver Broncos prefer him over someone like Hampton, who is just a well-rounded player.
Henderson and Hampton are likely to be picked within a few spots of one another in the first round of the draft. But don’t be surprised if it’s Henderson and not Hampton, who is the second running back off the board.
Jalen Milroe Is The Third Quarterback Drafted
Part of me wanted to be even bolder and say that Jalen Milroe would be the second quarterback off the board ahead of Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart. But that feels like a bit of a stretch. However, don’t be surprised if Milroe ends up jumping ahead of Sanders or Dart by the time we get to next Thursday night.
Milroe was invited to the NFL Draft and he has since accepted his invitation, which is a pretty good sign that the league expects him to go in Round 1. That in itself is somewhat surprising after a down year in 2024, but the NFL loves traits and Milroe has them.
NFL teams love quarterbacks who can create plays with their legs, and Milroe is one of the best-rushing quarterbacks to enter the league since Lamar Jackson. With 4.40 speed and 32 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons, Milroe will be able to contribute to an offense right away because of his running ability.
Teams like the Steelers and Browns, who have a ton of experience playing against Lamar Jackson, might prefer to take a similar approach because they know how difficult it is to gameplan for a mobile quarterback. Accuracy is a major concern for Milroe, but he has had a lot of success in the deep passing game and is a more accurate deep thrower than Dart, Tyler Shough, and Quinn Ewers.
The Browns feel like an especially good fit for Milroe, considering his former offensive coordinator at Alabama, Tommy Rees, is now the offensive coordinator in Cleveland. The Browns are a play-action-heavy team, and having a quarterback who can make plays with his legs would drastically improve the offense.
At this point, it would be a minor shock if Milroe isn’t selected in the first 40 picks of the NFL Draft. But just how high could he go? That remains to be seen.
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