NFL Analysis
11/15/24
9 min read
2025 NFL Free Agents Playing Their Way Into Big Contracts
The 2025 free agent class isn’t a great one, but there have been a handful of players in the final years of their respective deals that should earn big contracts next offseason. And with several teams having more than $80 million in cap space, these are the five players who could be rewarded in March.
2025 NFL Free Agents Due For Raise
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings 
Projected AAV: $28 million/year
There might not be an upcoming free agent more challenging to project moving forward than Sam Darnold.
After washing out with the Jets and the Panthers, Darnold signed a one-year, $4.5 million contract with the 49ers during the 2023 season. Then, he signed a one-year deal with the Vikings worth up to $10 million to be a bridge quarterback to a rookie quarterback. After it was announced that J.J. McCarthy would miss the entire 2024 season with a knee injury, Darnold became the full-time starter in Minnesota.
So far, so good for Darnold and the Vikings. They are 7-2, and he is playing the best football of his career. Darnold is averaging a whopping 8.2 yards per attempt and has a passer rating of 99.2.
There is certainly some buyer beware here, as Darnold just had his worst game of the season against Jacksonville. It just so happens that he is playing in one of the most quarterback-friendly offenses in the league, with playmakers galore.
However, the 2025 quarterback class is not very strong, and several teams could be looking for a stop-gap option. The recent rejuvenation of quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and even Russell Wilson could cause teams to be more open to the idea of betting on Darnold on a shorter contract.
Here are some recent quarterback contracts in free agency that could be comparable for Darnold and his new team:
Derek Carr, Saints: $37.5M AAV
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers: $33.3M AAV
Geno Smith, Seahawks: $25M AAV
Garder Minshew, Raiders: $12.5M AAV
Assuming Darnold can continue to play at this same level for the remainder of the 2024 season, he should earn a big deal in free agency.
It seems unlikely he'll reach the same numbers as Carr and Mayfield, but don't be surprised if he gets a few more million per year than Smith, considering he is only 27. Someone will take a chance on Darnold and his talent again.
Dan Moore Jr., LT, Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected AAV: $17 million/year
Franchise left tackles don’t become available often in free agency. When they do, they go for a lot more than expected. While it might be a stretch to call Dan Moore a “franchise left tackle,” he’s developed into a solid player for Pittsburgh and will be rewarded handsomely.
Moore has started at least 16 games in three straight seasons and is on pace to do it again. He was a big liability earlier in his career with the Steelers, but he’s suddenly developed into one of their most reliable starters.
Not only has he improved as a pass blocker, but his ability to move defenders off the ball will be intriguing for any team wanting to upgrade its offensive line this offseason.
Plus, the fact that he has been so durable and reliable during his career will have teams more comfortable spending more for the former fourth-round pick from Texas A&M. Ideally, the Steelers would keep him after drafting and developing him. However, after spending their last two first-round picks on offensive tackles, they might be forced to let Moore hit the open market.
There are three teams with more than $100 million in cap space this offseason, and all three could use offensive line help. Outside of Ronnie Stanley, Moore might be the best left tackle on the market, and his age (26) should allow him to receive a massive deal.
As long as he can stay healthy for the remainder of the season, Moore should ink a huge contract extension in March from offensive line-needy teams.
Zack Baun, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Projected AAV: $10 million/year
It’s not too often that off-the-ball linebackers have breakout seasons at 28, but that’s the case for Zack Baun with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Baun joined the Eagles this offseason to help with their linebacker depth. He wasn’t expected to be the starter after the Eagles signed Devin White in free agency. However, Baun outplayed him during training camp, and White was a healthy scratch in Week 1. Since then, Baun has become one of the league’s best linebackers, and the Eagles released White.
Just how well is Baun playing? He has racked up 87 total tackles in nine games, just one fewer than he had during his four-year career with the Saints (88). Baun is a perfect fit in Vic Fangio’s defense as he is an aggressive, downhill linebacker who can blitz and deliver game-changing plays.
In fact, he was named the NFC’s Defensive Player of the Week in Week 10 after recording two forced fumbles, eight tackles, and one tackle for a loss. He was flying all over the field, and he should see a big payday, even on a shorter deal, next offseason.
But what type of contract can we expect Baun to get? The higher-end deal would be $13.5 million in average annual value, which is what Patrick Queen received this offseason from the Steelers. However, Queen was a much younger player (24) with first-round draft capital.
Instead, look for a deal similar to what Bobby Okereke received from the Giants, which came in at $10 million AAV. That might still be on the high side for Baun, but he signed a one-year deal worth only $3.5 million in March.
If Baun continues to post huge numbers in Fangio’s defense, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him reach $10 million per season on the open market.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected AAV: $9.5 million/year
After a few years in which the NFL refused to spend money on running backs, we saw a big uptick in spending during the 2024 offseason.
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift, and Tony Pollard are just a handful of running backs who earned nice-sized deals on the open market.
That is great news for Najee Harris, who is the clear-cut top running back set to hit free agency in 2025. Pittsburgh declined his fifth-year option, allowing him to hit the market in March. Harris has had a strong contract year. He is averaging a career-high 71.7 rushing yards per game and has already racked up 797 yards from scrimmage in nine games.
Harris has started every game since the Steelers drafted him in Round 1 of the 2021 draft. He is as durable as they come, and his ability to play all three downs will make him attractive to teams in free agency.
Harris is not the most explosive back, but teams looking to pair a veteran running back with a young quarterback should be interested in the former Alabama star. He turns 27 in March, but as we saw last offseason, that didn’t scare off many teams. Look for Harris to earn a multi-year deal in free agency, averaging nearly $10 million per season.
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants
Projected AAV: $17 million/year
The 2025 wide receiver class is loaded with big-name players, and it’s one of the deeper classes we’ve seen in recent years.
However, injuries are already a factor. Stefon Diggs (torn ACL) and Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle) suffered season-ending injuries in 2024. Tee Higgins is the top receiver on the market, but he’s missed a good chunk of this season with several lower-body injuries.
Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, and Keenan Allen are other former No. 1 receivers expected to hit the market. Still, they are all getting older, and most teams don’t like to pay receivers who are already 31 or older. That’s why someone like Darius Slayton could be one of the biggest surprises at the wide receiver position in free agency.
We saw Darnell Mooney earn a nice contract ($13M/year) from the Falcons despite totaling just 414 yards during the 2023 season. Slayton has already surpassed those numbers in 2024, but he brings a similar dynamic as a big-play merchant who can win down the field.
Slayton turns 28 in January, so he’s not the youngest receiver on the market. However, you can expect that teams will be chasing Slayton’s upside with the hope of pairing him with a true No. 1 receiver on a good offense. With Jerry Jeudy earning a $17.5 million contract last offseason, look for Slayton’s numbers to be similar.
Tre’von Moehrig, S, Las Vegas Raiders
Projected AAV: $13 million/year
This is a good safety class in free agency with Budda Baker, Justin Reid, Andre Cisco, and Jevon Holland all projected to become free agents. Still, one player who could earn a much bigger contract extension than anyone anticipates is Tre’von Moehrig of the Las Vegas Raiders.
The players who end up getting more money than expected on the open market are young players with a lot of starts. Moehrig, who is just 25 and has already started 56 games, is one of those players.
He started every game during the 2021 and 2023 seasons and is on pace to do so again this year. While he isn’t the most dynamic playmaker, he has recorded five interceptions in the last two seasons on top of 2.5 sacks.
Moehrig can play either safety position, but he has excelled as a run defender this season. He started the 2024 season off a bit slow, but he has improved each week and could be a surprise winner in free agency next March.
Teams love durable safeties who aren’t afraid to tackle. And for the teams that miss out on Baker and Reid in free agency, Moehrig could be a nice consolation prize.
