NFL Analysis
2/3/25
7 min read
2025 NFL Free Agents Who Carry The Most Risk
As exciting as NFL free agency is every year, there are a handful of players in 2025 who carry more risk than others.
Whether it's injury history, previous behavior, or simply inconsistent on-field performances, this year's free agent class features a handful of players who are asking for hefty contracts but could wind up being high-risk, high-reward moves.
These players won't necessarily flop after signing new deals this offseason, but here are the players who present the most risk in this year's free agent class.
Most Risky 2025 NFL Free Agents
Haason Reddick yesterday:
— Thomas R. Petersen (@thomasrp93) November 21, 2023
- 1 sack
- 3 QB hits
- 1 TFL
- 4 tackles#Eagles pic.twitter.com/Ac2r90q44j
Haason Reddick, EDGE
It's a pretty good year to need a veteran pass rusher, with players like Khalil Mack and Chase Young hitting the open market. However, the free agent pass rusher with the highest upside also presents the biggest risk by a pretty wide margin.
Haason Reddick is seeking top-of-market money after holding out until nearly October following a trade to the New York Jets. The trade by GM Joe Douglas was a colossal disaster, with the two-time Pro Bowler refusing to practice with the team without an extension.
Even after ending his holdout on a reworked deal, Reddick didn't have that much of an impact, generating one sack and 26 pressures in 10 games. That lack of production was likely due to months spent without practicing, but Reddick now brings more questions than answers into free agency.
Reddick was one of the most dominant pass rushers in the league in 2022 and 2023, but his weird 2024 run with holdouts and off-field drama has NFL teams wondering what they're getting in him. He's already 30 years old and may not have the same kind of explosiveness and bend around the edge that he had just a couple of seasons ago.
Reddick will likely be disappointed in the contracts he's being offered, but whoever lands him will have to hope that he's still hungry once he gets paid so that he can return to his All-Pro form.
Dre Greenlaw, Linebacker
It wasn't that long ago when Dre Greenlaw was considered one of the most exciting young off-ball linebackers in the league.
Unfortunately, a devastating Achilles tear in the Super Bowl has put the rest of Greenlaw's career into the "what if?" category if he's never able to return to form. Greenlaw didn't get back onto the field until late this year for the San Francisco 49ers, but played just one half of football before being shut down for the rest of the year after experiencing knee soreness.
The move likely could have been a way to protect Greenlaw from further injury after working his way back onto the field in order to protect his long-term future. The 27-year-old will now have a full offseason to try to get back to as close to 100 percent as possible.
Whoever takes a swing on Greenlaw could be getting a player who is never able to get back to form. However, if he makes a full recovery, someone could be getting a top-tier linebacker capable of stopping the run and making plays in pass coverage as an all-around great player in the middle of the defense.
It's a risky move injury-wise, but teams will take a chance on such a premier talent if the 49ers don't bring him back.
Vikings snap the ball quickly out of the huddle with Justin Jefferson in the backfield and Aaron Jones split out.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 23, 2024
The quick operation and alignment catches the Texans defense scrambling. Vikings run Mesh and Darnold works through it for the TD. pic.twitter.com/6uTgqKqvIG
Aaron Jones, Running Back
Teams taking big swings on running backs saw huge returns in free agency last season, with Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs all having huge impacts on playoff teams.
Even Aaron Jones got in on the fun with a strong year for the Minnesota Vikings, rushing for 1,138 yards and five touchdowns while adding another 408 yards and two scores catching passes out of the backfield. He only signed a one-year deal with Minnesota to hit free agency again this offseason, but teams may not be as eager to sign him in 2025.
It's not like Jones has been a bad running back. In fact, he's been a consistent weapon throughout his entire career.
However, at 30 years old with an extensive NFL workload, there will be questions about Jones' longevity going forward. He played in every game this year for the Vikings but started to slow down significantly by the end of the season and into the postseason.
Jones is seventh among active running backs in career rushing attempts, with 1,432 carries in his NFL career. He's also on the smaller end among those top RBs, listed at just 5-foot-9 and 208 pounds.
While he could still play at a high level in 2025, his tires might not have enough tread left to be a sustainable workhorse back going forward.
Asante Samuel Jr., Cornerback
Teams will have some questions about Asante Samuel Jr. as he hits free agency, especially after how dominant he looked earlier in his career.
The 25-year-old cornerback had a strong first three years in the league, racking up six interceptions and 35 pass breakups in that span. However, a down year in 2024 combined with a season-ending shoulder injury has put his long-term prospects into question.
It's unclear if the Los Angeles Chargers want to bring Samuel back, especially with the ascension of rookie Tarheeb Still. Despite being such a productive player in coverage, Samuel has been a liability at times in run support, posting a career missed tackle rate of 16.7 percent, including 22.2 percent in 2024.
Samuel's effectiveness could entirely rely on the scheme that he plays in. A team wanting a ball-hawking corner who they can try to hide against the run could be an ideal landing spot for him, but the shoulder stinger can be something that could keep popping up going forward in his career.
There are some real questions about Samuel's feast-or-famine play style, but the right team could strike gold in free agency.
Sam Darnold blacked out in the 4th quarter against the Cardinals. The ball placement plus look at how early he's letting these throws go. pic.twitter.com/t61OOmOd3o
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 2, 2024
Sam Darnold, Quarterback
There isn't another free agent who could help or hurt a franchise more this offseason than Sam Darnold.
The journeyman veteran looked like a draft bust for most of his career after going third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He struggled mightily with the New York Jets before bouncing around as a fill-in starter and backup for the Panthers and 49ers before winding up in Minnesota.
Instead of remaining a backup for first-round rookie J.J. McCarthy, an injury thrust Darnold into the starting lineup, helping him completely resurrect his career. He posted career-high numbers across the board, throwing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions to lead the Vikings into the playoffs.
Despite looking like a starting-caliber quarterback, Darnold's implosion in the playoffs presents a significant risk for a quarterback-needy team in free agency.
The problem for teams in need of a quarterback is that this is a bad year to need one. Two quarterbacks are considered first-round prospects in Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, and the other QBs likely to be free agents include an aging Kirk Cousins and unproven players like Justin Fields.
Because of the value of the quarterback position, whoever takes Darnold will likely have the fate of their franchise resting on the shoulders of someone with a lot to prove. Darnold could return to form and light up the rest of the league, or he could fold after such a disappointing playoff loss.
Either way, someone is still going to pay Darnold to try and save their team.
