NFL Analysis
2/18/25
14 min read
2025 NFL QB Carousel: Where Will Top Names End Up?
The 2025 NFL Draft quarterback class is one of the weakest we’ve seen in recent years. The only class that was worse was the 2022 draft, which saw just one pick at quarterback in the first two rounds (Kenny Pickett). Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward will likely be top 10 selections, but we could go several rounds without another quarterback being drafted.
NFL teams know that this is a weak quarterback class, which could have a big impact on free agency. Franchises that need quarterbacks will be aggressive in signing or trading for an option rather than waiting until the draft. That means we could have one of the wildest quarterback carousels in recent memory.
But where will the top quarterbacks of the offseason land? And who are some sleeper teams to gobble up the top passers? Here are our predictions on where the best quarterbacks available will land this offseason:
2025 Free Agency QB Carousel Predictions
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Most Likely: Las Vegas Raiders
It seemed like a lock heading into Week 18 that Sam Darnold would return to the Vikings in 2025. He was having an outstanding season, and the Vikings just needed one more win in the final week of the season to secure the No. 1 seed. However, an awful Week 18 loss to the Lions, followed by a disastrous showing against the Rams in Round 1 of the playoffs, might have the Vikings reconsidering their options.
If Darnold leaves in free agency, he’ll have plenty of suitors, as he is clearly the top quarterback on the market. He should have as many as six teams after him, especially considering that this is a weaker quarterback class.
Darnold will certainly be careful when considering his next team because this might be his last shot as a clear starter. But the Raiders make a lot of sense, especially after hiring Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly to run the offense. The Raiders want to be competitive right away, and they have some intriguing players on offense, including Brock Bowers. They certainly don’t have the overall talent of the Vikings, but with cap space and the No. 6 pick, they could improve the offensive weapons and line around Darnold rather quickly.
There is a chance that Darnold wouldn’t want to play in a division as competitive as the AFC West or with a team that has struggled as much as the Raiders. Still, this is a pretty good football situation for Darnold as he continues to resurrect his career.
Other Possibilities: Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts
The Titans hold the No. 1 pick, but if they don’t feel like a quarterback is worthy of that spot, Darnold could be an option in free agency instead. The Titans have a lot of talent on offense, but the quarterback play has been awful during the last two seasons. Darnold isn’t a top-10 NFL quarterback, but he would provide some stability and consistency at the position for a team that desperately needs it.
The Colts can’t be ruled out either, as they’ve needed a franchise quarterback for several years now. Anthony Richardson just hasn’t progressed the way that they had hoped, and time is running out for Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen to find their guy.
Darnold would make a lot of sense in a heavy play-action offense that has a strong run game. Will the Colts be willing to meet his contractual demands, or do they want to give Richardson one more shot at the job before looking elsewhere in 2026?
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Most Likely: Pittsburgh Steelers
Some of the beat reporters have already shot this idea down, but we aren’t ruling out anything in February. The Steelers are desperate to win a playoff game after not doing so for the past eight seasons. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been an elite quarterback for several years now, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Steelers talk themselves into him for a one-year rental.
Pittsburgh has the roster to be a postseason contender. It has made the playoffs the last two years despite five different starting quarterbacks. Even at this point in his career, Rodgers might be a better option than Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Mason Rudolph, etc.
The Steelers also have the cap flexibility to sign other free agents, which means they could do a package deal for Rodgers and Davante Adams. This is still just a short-term fix for Pittsburgh, and it likely wouldn’t be enough for them to win the AFC North, but pairing Rodgers with Mike Tomlin has been rumored for years, and now, it could finally happen.
With so many aging veterans on this roster (Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt, etc.), Pittsburgh might decide that it is willing to take the risk on the 41-year-old.
Other Possibilities: Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts
If the Raiders don't land Darnold in free agency, Rodgers could be a backup option. Carroll will want to win now, and adding a seasoned veteran like Rodgers could help raise the roster's floor. It would be an odd fit to pair him with Chip Kelly, but at this stage, Rodgers might not have many options if he wants to continue to start.
The Colts remain an interesting option, as they need to start winning games with their current regime. And they’ve had no problem leaning on older quarterbacks in previous seasons (Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz). Could playing in a dome and in a weaker division (AFC South) help extend Rodgers' career?
Perhaps, but it’s clear the Colts want a long-term option at quarterback, and that certainly isn’t Rodgers. Pairing him with Anthony Richardson would give them options heading into 2025 and beyond.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Most Likely: New York Giants
It sure doesn’t seem like the Steelers have much interest in bringing back Russell Wilson after a one-year trial run. Wilson missed the first six games of the season due to a calf injury but put up modest numbers when he returned to the field.
However, the Steelers lost their final five games of the season, including a road playoff loss to the Ravens that likely sealed his fate. Wilson’s overall numbers during that stretch don’t look terrible, but Pittsburgh’s offense was a disaster, failing to score more than 17 points in every contest.
Going into his age-37 season, there might not be many opportunities for Wilson to start. However, a team looking for a bridge quarterback could sign Wilson early in free agency to ensure they have at least a starting-caliber quarterback. That is why the Giants make so much sense. New York released Daniel Jones during the 2024 season, and there isn’t a competent quarterback on the roster heading into the offseason.
The plan is to select one early in the 2025 NFL Draft, but with the Giants picking at No. 3, there is a chance that the top two quarterbacks (Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders) are off the board. Wilson would give them a strong backstop in case they get wiped out during the draft and potentially a bridge quarterback, even if they were to select one of the top passers.
Wilson is still incredibly accurate on deep passes down the field, but his athleticism is waning, and his inability to throw over the middle of the field can severely limit his offenses. Still, landing in New York as a bridge quarterback makes a ton of sense for both parties.
Other Possibilities: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets
The Browns are in search of a veteran quarterback. Deshaun Watson is likely out for the entire 2025 season, and Wilson could be a cheap option in free agency. The Browns are a candidate to draft a quarterback at No. 2, but they could want to grab a quarterback in free agency to ensure they have a starting-caliber quarterback on the roster.
The same can be said for the New York Jets, who will be moving on from Rodgers this offseason. It’s more than likely that they will go with a bridge option in 2025, as they need to reset their roster and cap situation after striking out on Rodgers.
Wilson will likely be one of several cheap quarterback options the Jets explore this offseason.
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
Most Likely: Pittsburgh Steelers
Justin Fields is going into Year 5, but his options are expected to be limited when it comes to starting gigs. The league just didn’t have much interest in him last offseason, as he was traded for a sixth-round pick. Fields started six games for the Steelers and produced modest numbers, but he averaged just 184 passing yards per game in that stretch.
There is a chance that some team could strike out in free agency and fall back to Fields as an option before the draft, but don’t expect anyone to offer him big money right out of the gate. And that’s why the Steelers still make the most sense for Fields. It’s clear that he likes playing there and being coached by Tomlin, so it stands to reason that he could return in 2025.
Pittsburgh won’t give him the job, but bringing him back another team-friendly deal seems reasonable. In fact, there is a chance that it will sign Fields before free agency, and it will still look at the top quarterbacks on the market, including Rodgers.
Other Possibilities: New York Jets
The Jets would love to select their next franchise quarterback during the 2025 NFL Draft, but that seems unlikely given where they draft (No. 7) and the lack of options available. That means the Jets will be in the market for a cheaper alternative at that position, and Fields could give them that.
He is still young (he turns 26 in March), and his athleticism could help the Jets improve their ground attack. Fields would give the Jets a young quarterback to develop while they continue to search for their next franchise quarterback in the upcoming years.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Most Likely: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were just one play away from the NFC Championship Game, and they matched up with the Eagles better than anyone else in the playoffs. Despite playing in a blizzard, Matthew Stafford kept the Rams in that game and didn’t show any signs of slowing down.
However, Stafford would like a contract extension this offseason. However, the Rams appear hesitant to do so, which is understandable since Stafford turned 37 this month and has not posted a passer rating over 94 since 2021. He is still a good quarterback, but do the Rams want to pay him money for his age-38 season and beyond? Could they explore getting out from Stafford a year early rather than a year too late?
All of that sounds good on paper, but the Rams are built to win now, and it’s pretty clear that Stafford wants to stay in Los Angeles. If the Rams trade Stafford, they would be left without any good options in free agency on the draft. That just doesn’t seem like a move that Les Snead would make unless they have some sort of big trick up their sleeve. Don’t expect the Rams to move Stafford this offseason, as all of the potential trade talk is likely just leverage for the eventual contract extension/raise.
Other Possibilities: New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Giants have an obvious quarterback need, so they will be in contention for any solid quarterback that is available. What makes the Stafford move appealing is that the Giants have just hired Chad Hall to be their assistant quarterback coach. Hall is also Stafford's brother-in-law, which has fueled even more rumors about Stafford to the Giants.
New York would offer Stafford a soft landing. They have a true No. 1 receiver (Malik Nabers), a rising star at running back (Tyrone Tracy), and an experienced play-caller (Brian Daboll). The Giants aren’t all that close to being a contender in the NFC, but the addition of Stafford would give them a fighting chance.
The Steelers are the other obvious candidate for Stafford, as they believe they are just one quarterback away from competing for a Super Bowl. Stafford’s strong arm could cut through the wind and cold in the AFC North, which is a must for a successful passer in the division. The Steelers know that Stafford would be a two or three-year rental, but that would give them time to draft and develop an eventual successor.
If Stafford becomes, expect at least a half-dozen teams to put in offers to the Rams. That said, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Los Angeles to move him, considering how hard it is to find capable quarterbacks that can win in the postseason.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Most Likely: Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins was the big-name free-agent quarterback everyone wanted last offseason, but that did not work out for Atlanta. He was benched at the end of the season after several poor performances in which the offense failed to score 20+ points. The lack of mobility and arm strength proved to be too much for Cousins to overcome, and he was benched in favor of Michael Penix Jr.
However, the Falcons are still the most likely destination for Cousins in 2025 for several reasons. The first is the salary cap. The Falcons would not save any money by releasing Cousins outright this offseason, but they would still take on a $40 million dead cap hit if designated a post-June 1 cut.
It makes more sense to release him during the 2026 offseason when they could release him (post-June 1) and save $45 million against the cap with just $12.5 million in dead cap.
Another reason is that Penix Jr. has a long injury history, including multiple torn ACLs and a major shoulder injury. Having a veteran backup in place who knows the offense and won’t cause a distraction is valuable. The Falcons could trade Cousins and save some cap space, but it seems unlikely that anyone would do that. Expect Cousins to be in Atlanta next year despite being the most expensive backup in the NFL.
Other Possibilities: Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers
If the Falcons released Cousins with the idea that they would be “doing right” by him, expect several teams to be interested. The Browns are the most obvious candidate, as Deshaun Watson won’t be ready for the 2025 season. Kevin Stefanski worked with Cousins in Minnesota, and the offense would fit him well. Cleveland could pick a quarterback at No. 2 and adding Cousins on a team-friendly deal would help give it a bridge option until that young quarterback is ready.
The Browns would also be betting that Cousins might be better in 2025 after being further out from his Achilles injury. He’s never been a great athlete and has always had a modest arm, but the lack of lower-body strength was evident last year in Atlanta. Maybe another year removed from that injury could help him return to the player we saw for several years in Minnesota.
The 49ers would also be another candidate since Kyle Shanahan has always admired Cousins from their days together at Washington. He would be the backup to Brock Purdy, but he would give the 49ers a clear upgrade from Josh Dobbs and the rest of the options in San Francisco.
The days of Cousins being a top-12 option are probably over, but expect teams still to have plenty of interest if they were to hit the open market.
