Analysis
10/23/21
5 min read
33rd Team DFS and Betting Roundup: Week 7
I’m a total degenerate. I used to love sports, now I just love making money from sports. If you’re like me, The 33rd Team has you covered. Our staff of football experts including current and former executives and coaches offers insight you won’t find anywhere else. While I’m no expert, I do know how to connect the dots between those insights and turning a profit. Each week, I’ll be taking some highlights from the site, and translating them into actionable steps you can use to win your DFS contests, and cash some bets.
This piece will be covering the non-DFS specific content on the 33rd team. We also feature content aimed specifically at DFS, check out the excellent work of Matthew Martin, plus my other articles.
Big Play Index (Ben Elsner)
This is a great starting point for DFS tournaments. We need chunk plays to post the kind of scores that can win you a million dollars. This isn’t as actionable for cash games (my favorite), but still could be considered -- we like our cash lineups to have a ceiling too.
Big Play Index: Eagles and 49ers are Positive Regression Candidates
Week 7 Takeaways:
Gambling: I'm all over the Eagles spread this week (+3, after opening 3.5). While I'm not moving off the key number (many NFL games are decided by exactly three points, so the number falling to 2.5 would be a big loss in win probability), Ben thinks I'm on to something here. From the article: "The Philadelphia Eagles are the highest ranked under .500 team. Their plus-18 Big Play Differential is higher than that of the Cardinals, Rams, Buccaneers and Cowboys."
DFS: Similarly, Eagles stacks need to be considered this week. They're a bit under the radar (with so much attention going to Tians vs. Chiefs) but could pay off in a big way. Hurts+Goeddert (with Zach Ertz out of the picture) or Hurts by himself are my favorite plays for tournaments.
Aikman Efficiency Rankings (33rd Team Staff)
Undefeated Cardinals Soar Into No. 1 Spot in Aikman Efficiency Ratings
DFS: There's not a ton here from a speculative standpoint, but I wanted to call to attention some DFS points. Notably, the extreme efficiency of the Cardinals offense. Frequently, we're scared off of quarterbacks who are huge favorites, due to fear they play from in front and don't throw the ball much. However, with the Cardinals efficiency, Kyler can still get it done. Unfortunately, there passing attack is very spread out -- making it hard to target Cards receivers. However, you could consider Rondale Moore, who's still cheap on DraftKings, paired with the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals defense is a strong play (Houston's offense is 29th in the Aikman Efficiency Ratings), and Rondale is the primary kick/punt returner. That means you'd get double touchdown points if Rondale runs one back in Week 7 (points from Rondale and the D/ST)
Rookie Report (Charlie Parkinson)
DFS: Continue to target Jaylen Waddle. Everybody is on Ja'Marr Chase now, but Waddle seems to be overlooked (even with Tua returning.) From the article: "Waddle proved to be a reliable target in London, as he pulled in 10 catches for 70 yards. He added two scores and had a PFF grade of 70.6."
Chuba Hubbard is probably a bit overvalued. Last year, Mike Davis stepped in for CMC, and has a string of top fantasy games. This was largely due to his pass game role, which has been a struggle for Chuba. "Hubbard rushed the ball well, carrying it 16 times for 61 yards. He did not do as well in the pass game, where he caught just one pass and had two meaningful drops. He finished the game with a grade of 60.4"
Gambling: The lines aren't great at the moment, but keep an eye on unders for Chuba receiving props (receptions and/or yards.) There's a lot of variations in player props across books, so your mileage may vary. Under 2.5 catches is probably ok, but I'd feel much better betting under 3.5.
Week 7 Matchups to Watch (Mike Tannenbaum)
Week 7 Takeaways
As always, Tannenbaum covers a lot of ground, so I encourage you to read the full article. Here's what stood out to me:
Gambling:
Tannenbaum highlighted how underrated Cincy's defense is here. While he's been much better so far this season, forcing Lamar Jackson to win through the air is usually a good strategy. The Line in this game has fallen from Bengals (+10) all the way down to +6.5 everywhere I've seen, so the value is gone there. However, you can still find totals as high as 46.5. Given the strength of these defenses, that's not a bad line to bet under.
Tannenbaum took note of the Chief's turnover struggles this year, and how that would be a key factor in their game with the Titans. Turnovers are fairly "random" (in that they're hard to predict when they'll happen, not in that players don't contribute to their occurrence) so it's usually unwise to bet with the assumption that they'll happen.
I personally bet the Titans +5.5 points earlier in the week, but that number isn't there anymore. You can find some Chiefs -4 here, which they should easily cover if they can take care of the ball.
DFS: "Zach Wilson vs. Bill Belichick: Wilson threw 4 INT against the Patriots defense in Week 2. He will need to do better against a Patriots defense that has allowed an average of 378.5 yards passing over the last two weeks. " Great time to buy low(ish) on the Patriots defense. They're cheaper than the Rams, Panthers, and Bucs, but could easily outscore them all.
