Betting
10/17/24
6 min read
5 Best PrizePicks More-Less Picks To Smash in NFL Week 7
The slate of games for NFL Week 7 is so intriguing that it's the perfect time to make some PrizePicks.
Week 7's primetime schedule features a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers in the late afternoon slate. Meanwhile, there's a Monday night doubleheader with a pair of intriguing matchups in Ravens-Buccaneers and Chargers-Cardinals.
There's even a showdown between two of the league's top young quarterbacks, Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, as the Houston Texans take on the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field.
With so many exciting matchups to keep an eye on this week, let's dive into the best more or less PrizePicks to make.
Jordan Love 252.5 Passing Yards: Over
The Packers are starting to hit their stride, and a healthy Jordan Love should scare the rest of the league.
Despite missing two games, Love is tied for second in the league with 12 passing touchdowns. While he's still had to shake off some rust, he's gotten more and more comfortable airing it out. In fact, he's surpassed the 252.5 passing yard mark in three of four games he's played this season.
The Texans' defense is second-ranked by DVOA, but they will be missing some key starters on Sunday. Cornerback Kamari Lassiter and safety Jimmie Ward are both expected to miss Sunday's game. Meanwhile, the first practice report of the week listed linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Herny To'oTo'o as not practicing.
A depleted Texans defense, a healthy Love, and a Packers wide receiver group that's finally getting healthy is the perfect recipe for the Green Bay quarterback to put up big numbers on Sunday.
Justin Jefferson 7 Receptions: LEss
Seven catches is a lot, even for a superstar like Justin Jefferson.
There hasn't been a single game this season where Jefferson has had more than six catches. Opponents are focused on finding ways to limit his production, even if he's making the most out of his limited opportunities with 450 yards and four touchdowns.
The Lions have rank fourth in defensive DVOA this season, and top safety play from Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch is a big reason for that. The two have combined for seven interceptions in five games, baiting quarterbacks into throwing deep and taking advantage of it.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will likely shade safety help over Jefferson to allow his cornerbacks to be more aggressive and handle anything underneath. That should keep Jefferson in check, at least regarding the number of opportunities he gets to make a play.
J.K. Dobbins 73.5 Rushing Yards: More
There's a path to J.K. Dobbins becoming Comeback Player of the Year, with good value in betting markets to do so. Monday night is another opportunity to solidify his case.
After years of battling injuries, Dobbins is suddenly sixth in the NFL with 438 rushing yards, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry. He's thrived in the team's wins, averaging 120.7 rushing yards per game in their three victories.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have one of the worst run defenses in the league. They're giving up the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL, with 153.0 rushing yards allowed per game. FTN Fantasy is just as low on their run defense, with Arizona 28th in run defense by DVOA.
Dobbins has been one of the most unexpected breakout stars of the 2024 season, and he has an ideal matchup this Sunday to put up over 100 yards.
Spencer Rattler 29 Pass Attempts: Less
The New Orleans Saints let Spencer Rattler cook last Sunday in a spirited attempt against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But they might be a bit more conservative with their rookie quarterback on Thursday night football.
Along with a short week, Rattler will be throwing to a completely different group of receivers on Thursday. While Chris Olave is out with a concussion, vertical speedster Rashid Shaheed could miss the rest of the season with a meniscus injury.
That means Bub Means, Cedrick Wilson, and Mason Tipton will be New Orleans' starting receivers on Thursday night.
Even with Patrick Surtain II out for the Broncos, Denver's defense has enough talent that it could make airing it out a nightmare for Rattler and his unproven receivers. Expect a much more balanced offensive approach this week, with an emphasis on the run game to keep Rattler from getting rattled.
A.J. Brown 70.5 Receiving Yards: More
The Philadelphia Eagles sorely missed A.J. Brown's presence in the passing game, and Jalen Hurts should keep targeting him this week.
Brown has missed most of the season due to a nagging hamstring injury but returned in full force on Sunday. He caught six passes on nine targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles didn't waste any time putting him in at 100 percent utilization, either, as his Next Gen Stats chart shows a lot of deep shots.
Brown has surpassed 116 yards in each of his two games this season, showing how much Hurts wants to get him involved as much as possible.
The star wideout has another favorable matchup this week, as the New York Giants rank 27th in DVOA when covering No. 1 receivers. That will mean plenty of opportunities for Brown to get the ball and quickly surpass 70.5 receiving yards.
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