NFL Analysis
10/9/24
12 min read
5 Bold Predictions For 2024 NFL Trade Deadline
We’re less than one month from the 2024 NFL trade deadline (Nov. 5). The chatter has begun on contending teams who may be looking for help and struggling teams ready to gain future draft picks by trading players who are disgruntled or that they are likely to lose in free agency next March.
There have been many players moved at the trade deadline in recent years who have made a big impact on their new teams, including Montez Sweat as a Pro Bowler and leading sacker last season for the Chicago Bears and in 2022, Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers), T.J. Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings) and Roquan Smith (Baltimore Ravens) helped their teams to playoff berths while having Pro Bowl seasons.
NFL Trade Deadline Predictions
Here are five players who are solid candidates to be traded in the next four weeks and their projected destination:
Davante Adams, WR, From Raiders to Jets
The Jets and their fan base have high expectations after acquiring Aaron Rodgers last year, along with some fine skill position players on offense and a top-five defense. Rodgers’ Achilles injury derailed the 2023 season. This season is off to a shaky 2-3 start, with the second-ranked defense playing well.
However, the offense is struggling to protect Rodgers, whose play has been uneven, including three interceptions in last Sunday’s loss to the Vikings. There’s been little production from the running game and excessive penalties, and Robert Saleh took the fall with his firing this week.
Next on Owner Woody Johnson’s chopping block will be GM Joe Douglas if the team doesn’t reach the playoffs. As the old saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures. I expect Douglas to send the Raiders a second or third-round pick for the 31-year-old Adams, who has caught more than 100 passes in the past four seasons in Green Bay and Las Vegas. He had 103 receptions for 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns last season.
Adams had 18 catches for 209 yards and one touchdown in the first three games before being sidelined the last two weeks with a hamstring injury (that is nearly healed). He’s reportedly asked to be traded, and he’d love to rejoin Rodgers, with whom he had great success in Green Bay, or Derek Carr, his college quarterback at Fresno State, who he played with in 2022 at the Raiders before Carr joined the Saints.
The Jets have the salary cap room to absorb Adams’ $16.89 million base salary that would be prorated over the remaining weeks of the season, while the Saints would have to free up significant cap money to bring Adams aboard. The Jets also have an extra third-round pick in 2025 and their second-rounder.
Rodgers is surely lobbying Johnson and Douglas to trade for the six-time Pro Bowler, where he and Garrett Wilson would make a dynamic pair. Adams would be a clear upgrade over Allen Lazard or Mike Williams (who has only 10 catches for 145 yards and no touchdowns as he comes off an ACL injury).
Adams should easily transition into the Jets' offense, which is similar to what he and Rodgers ran in Green Bay. Even if they add Adams, the offensive line and running game must improve to balance the offense and better protect Rodgers.
Haason Reddick, Edge/DE, From Jets to Lions
Here we go with the Jets again, who have been unable to get Haason Reddick to report after trading a conditional third-round pick in 2026 to the Eagles in April. The 30-year-old Reddick wants his $15 million per year contract extended after five straight double-digit sack seasons (including 11 last year in Philadelphia). He’s been a Pro Bowl player for the past two seasons and is a former first-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals.
Plenty of teams need help rushing the passer, including the Lions, who have Super Bowl aspirations. However, the pass defense could be their undoing, as it was last season. Detroit ranks 27th in pass defense and has only 11 sacks (tied for 19th) through five games. Aidan Hutchinson has 6.5 sacks, and no other Lion has reached two sacks.
The Lions signed DE Marcus Davenport in free agency, but he’s out once again for the year (with a triceps injury). Reddick has been a durable player during his seven-year career.
A better pass rush will help the young corners, like first-rounder Terrion Arnold.
The Lions have plenty of cap room this year ( more than $40 million) and in 2025 to take on Reddick’s $14.25 million base salary and extend his contract. They are missing a third-round pick in next year’s draft, but it may only take a fourth or fifth-rounder to get Reddick from the Jets, who probably want to rid themselves of his contract drama.
GM Brad Holmes and Coach Dan Campbell have brought in and developed many talented players in recent years to turn the Lions into the defending NFC North champs.
They face a tough challenge to repeat in the league’s best division, currently led by the unbeaten Vikings. I think they’ll see Reddick as a difference-maker who would significantly improve their pass rush.
Russell Wilson, QB, From Steelers to Dolphins
The Steelers are in the enviable position of having nine-time Pro Bowler and past Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson on a one-year, $1.21 million contract (the Broncos paid him $38 million this year after unloading him).
Wilson lost the starting job to Justin Fields when a calf injury sidelined him in training camp. He is back at practice this week and is expected to back up Fields who helped the Steelers get off to a 3-0 start before close losses the past two weeks to Indianapolis and Dallas.
Fields’ performance has been solid, with five TD passes, only one interception, a 67.6 percent completion rate, and a 97.1 passer rating (ranking 11th) while rushing for 172 yards and three touchdowns. Fields did have only 131 passing yards against the Cowboys.
Fields was the Bears' No. 11 pick in the 2021 draft. He was a three-year starter in Chicago before being traded to Pittsburgh for a sixth-round pick in 2025 that can become a fourth-rounder based on playtime. Before this season, the Steelers declined Fields’ fifth-year option so he could be a free agent next March.
It stands to reason that Pittsburgh GM Omar Kahn and Coach Mike Tomlin want Fields to be their long-term starter if the team continues on their current path toward a playoff spot while challenging the Ravens for the AFC North title. Tomlin also would prefer to avoid the drama of a season-long quarterback controversy between Fields and Wilson. He dealt with that enough in the offseason.
It’s unlikely the team will choose the 35-year-old Wilson over Fields, who is 10 years younger and playing well enough, especially considering Wilson’s three losing seasons from 2021-2023 in Seattle and Denver.
Miami is 2-3 after entering the season, expecting to wrestle the AFC East title from Buffalo, which lost several starters in free agency. The Dolphins don’t want their hopes to ride on the return of Tua Tagovailoa from his most recent concussion. Tagovailoa is seeing “top experts” to diagnose his susceptibility to concussions, which doesn’t sound promising, although he is reportedly expected to return to the team in a couple of weeks.
The Steelers are at the Raiders this week and then home against the Jets and Giants before the trade deadline. Fields should be able to get two or three wins from this stretch, which would make the Steelers comfortable with trading Wilson and having seven-year vet Kyle Allen as the No. 2 quarterback, which has been his role with Wilson sidelined.
If the Steelers can get a later-round draft pick for a player they invested so little in, I think they’ll jump on it. Miami is the most likely destination, considering Tagovailoa’s tenuous situation, and Wilson is a clear upgrade over Tyler Huntley or Skylar Thompson.
Tee Higgins, WR, From Bengals to Chiefs
The Bengals placed the franchise tag on Tee Higgins for $21.816 million this season. With an estimated $35 million per year long-term deal on the horizon for Ja’Marr Chase, it’s obvious Higgins will be moving on when he hits free agency in March.
The Bengals are in the midst of a disappointing season at 1-4 after a tough home loss in overtime to the Ravens. Higgins publicly questioned Coach Zac Taylor’s decision to run the ball three straight times in OT before a missed 54-yard field goal, which can’t please the Cincinnati brass.
If they don’t get on a winning streak over the next couple of weeks, I can see the team deciding to trade Higgins at the trade deadline as long as they can get a higher pick than what a compensatory pick in 2025 would bring (which would be a late third-rounder at best depending on other free agent moves the Bengals make).
Higgins is a talented receiver who was Cincinnati’s second-round pick in 2020. He has dealt with several injuries during his career, including a hamstring injury that cost him the first two games this season.
He held out of the offseason program, requested a trade, and was the only player hit with the franchise tag this year who did not get a new long-term deal. That’s largely because of the money being paid to QB Joe Burrow ($55 million per year) and Chase’s projected deal.
The Chiefs are missing starting wide receivers Rashee Rice (LCL injury) and Marquise Brown (shoulder surgery), neither of whom is expected back this season. The team has the opportunity to be the first to win three straight Super Bowls, and they have to be thinking of adding a top receiver to pair with first-round pick Xavier Worthy for their superstar QB Patrick Mahomes.
The 25-year-old Higgins is younger than some of the other candidates, such as Amari Cooper of the Browns and DeAndre Hopkins of the Titans. He’s a two-time thousand-yard receiver who was a key player on the successful Bengals teams that made deep playoff runs in 2021 and 2022. He has 18 catches for 182 yards and two TDs in his three games played this season.
Kansas City has the draft picks to swing a deal, but there’s minimal cap room, so they would have to free up some cap space to take on Higgins’ salary this season. However, GM Brett Veach and Coach Andy Reid have managed to keep a championship team mostly intact, and they’ll find a way to add a top receiver such as Higgins.
Budda Baker, S, From Cardinals to Eagles
Budda Baker is a six-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro who has had a tumultuous relationship with the Cardinals front office over his contract in recent years.
He signed a four-year, $59 million extension in 2020 that made him the league’s highest-paid safety at the time, but he was unhappy with the deal after a couple of seasons. He was given a pay raise without an extension for the 2023 and 2024 seasons and will hit free agency next March if he’s not extended.
Baker is off to a fine start this season with 52 tackles (fourth-most in the league), but he had no interceptions, forced fumbles, or fumble recoveries last season or through five games in 2024.
He’s a former second-round pick of the Cardinals who, at 28 years old, has plenty of quality seasons left. He’s an attractive potential trade target for teams looking for help on defense as long as they can handle his $14.2 million base salary this season and his future demands.
Arizona is coming off an upset win in San Francisco and, at 2-3, could be a playoff contender in the NFC. Their defense is not great (25th ranked, even with Baker). They may decide to hang onto their leading tackler, but if they think he’s headed out the door in 2025 free agency (which is likely) and the team is still below .500 at the trade deadline, a good offer may entice them to trade Baker.
Eagles GM Howie Roseman has never been shy about adding talented players. The Eagles are treading water at 2-2 but are in the mix in the NFC East race and have a stretch of winnable games before the trade deadline (Browns, Giants, Bengals, and Jaguars, after which they have Dallas and Washington back-to-back).
Philadelphia’s defense was second-ranked in 2022 when they were a Super Bowl team, but they took a big dip to 26th last season in a season that ended badly with losses in six of their last seven games, including a playoff blowout at Tampa Bay, who then beat them again 33-16 two weeks ago before their bye. The Eagles D currently ranks No. 27 and Baker would be an obvious upgrade over starting safeties Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
The Eagles have the cap space and the draft capital (probably a second-round pick would be required) to swing a deal for Baker. I think doing so would be a positive step for an Eagles defense that could use an impact player like Baker.
