Betting

9/8/22

5 min read

Matchups: Bears vs. 49ers

By Ryan Reynolds

Wide Receiver Contracts

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers

Spread: Bears +7.

Game Total: 40.5.

Team Totals: Bears (16.75), 49ers (23.75).

Weather: Outdoors, no significant concerns as of Thursday.

The Line Report

  • The current consensus spread is Bears +7, with a few Bears +6.5 options available.
  • This line opened as Bears +6.5.
  • This line has fluctuated between Bears +6.5 to Bears +7.5 throughout this summer.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bears +7.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bears +7.
  • The current consensus total is 40.5, although there are both 40 and 41 options available.
  • The total opened between 42 and 43 points. The peak was 43 points, while the total has fluctuated as low as 40 points.

Notable Injuries

Bears: WR Velus Jones (Questionable)

49ers: S Jimmie Ward (IR), TE George Kittle (Questionable/may be trending towards doubtful), LB Dre Greenlaw (Questionable)

The Bears Offense vs. the 49ers Defense

The Bears have an uphill battle here against a San Francisco defense that drove the 49ers trip to last year’s NFC Championship game. San Francisco’s premium front four against Chicago’s unreliable offensive line is a potentially game-derailing matchup. Chicago’s best shot to mitigate that matchup edge is by using Justin Fields' mobility to move the pocket, while deploying quick-hitter pass play designs. If the 49ers take a commanding lead that forces Chicago to be more pass-centric and aggressive on offense, that would be problematic for the Bears.

Notes and Observations

  • The Bears were 6-11 against the spread in 2021.
  • There Bears were 7-10 on overs in 2021.
  • The Bears were 2-7 against playoff teams in 2021.
  • One of those losses came at home to the 49ers, with a 33-22 score.
  • Per the Edge, the 49ers defense gave up the 8th-most rushing yards to QBs last season.
  • Per The Edge, Justin Fields was 6th in rushing attempts and 5th in rushing yards per game last season.
  • During last year’s matchup with the 49ers, Fields ran for 103 yards and a score on 10 carries. 

The 49ers Offense vs. Bears Defense

Chicago’s defense lost EDGE Khalil Mack and DT Akiem Hicks this offseason. EDGE Robert Quinn, who is coming off a career year, remains as the Bears' only significant disruptor. The 49ers offensive line is an average unit with an elite left tackle in Trent Williams. However, they have an edge in pass protection and the run game against the Bears in this matchup.

Notes and Observations

  • The 49ers were 9-8 against the spread in 2021.
  • San Francisco were 8-8-1 on overs 2021.
  • The 49ers were 6-3 against non-playoff teams in 2021.
  • One of those wins came against the Bears, with a 33-22 final.
  • In his two starts last season, Trey Lance averaged 12 carries in those contests. That would have led all quarterbacks, even narrowly edging out Lamar Jackson, on a per game basis.
  • The Bears' defense lost significant talent this offseason and they have a new coaching staff. However, Chicago allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks last season.
  • Per The Edge, Chicago allowed the seventh most rushing yards to running backs last season.
  • 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell ran for 137 yards and a score against Chicago last season.
  • With Jimmy Garoppolo under center, Deebo Samuel torched the Bears last year for 171 yards while catching 6-of-9 targets.

This is What You’re Betting On in Bears vs. 49ers

A bet on the Bears is a bet on a home underdog covering a 7-point spread on opening day. In order to do that, Chicago will have to help Justin Fields manage the 49ers premium pass rush through scheme. The Bears defense, led by linebacker Roquan Smith, has to deal with a mobile quarterback and a high-quality group of pass catchers, all while facing a disadvantage in the trenches. If you’re betting on the Bears in this spot, you are betting on the Bears defense playing above expectations. You’re also directly betting against Trey Lance if you’re betting on Chicago.

A bet on the 49ers is a bet on a championship caliber roster, backed by one of the best offensive strategists in the league in Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has a line play advantage on both sides of the ball, but their defensive front has a huge edge against the Bears unreliable offensive line. A bet on San Francisco is a bet on the 49ers taking advantage of those line play matchups. Your biggest concern if you’re betting on the 49ers is that we still can’t be sure of who Trey Lance is as a quarterback entering just his third professional start.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: The 49ers are a very strong option in standard winner pools, regardless of size. The 49ers warrant consideration as a top three option in your weekly confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: In pools where you pick every game my current lean is towards the 49ers side. I currently lean towards avoiding this game in tournaments, as I prefer to not take road teams that are favored by seven points or more.

Survivor: The 49ers are a very viable survivor option this week. They will also be among the more popular survivor options on this slate. Uncertainty related to who Trey Lance is as a professional quarterback is the primary downside case for taking the 49ers in survivor.

Tags: 2022 NFL season, Betting, Chicago Bears See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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