Fantasy
9/23/22
6 min read
2022 Week 3 DFS High Stakes Advice from a Milly Maker Winner
It’s already Week 3 of the NFL season; can you believe it? The DFS season is going to fly by, so we’ve got to profit as much as we can before it's over.
Last week, I had a killer lineup with the double stack of Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, while coming back with Rashod Bateman. I put up 202 points and profited a pretty good amount, but I made a serious mistake. I had Antonio Gibson as a one off, flexed Joe Mixon and used the chalky Bengals Defense. Had I put Amon-Ra St. Brown and mini-stacked him with Gibson, I would have profited over $200,000 and secured 3 seats in the Fantasy Football world championship. We talked about this last week, though. You need to have a short memory. Every week is a new opportunity, and we must take advantage.
Contrary to most DFS pros, I don’t usually run 150 lineups or use an optimizer. I hand build one or two of my favorite lineups using my own projections and enter them into multiple tournaments. I typically play all the Milly Makers, a few single-entry contests, and I’ll dabble in the Satellites & Qualifiers. The DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship is in New Orleans this year with a $2.5 million top prize, so I’ll shoot to get a few seats there.
Having a strategy is very important when you’re playing DFS, especially since you’ll be going up against some of the best players in the country. After reading this, you can check out my article Anatomy of Winning a GPP to see my strategy for my Milly Maker lineup in Week 3 of last year.
Foot on the gas. Let’s go.
VALUES
- RB David Montgomery $5,900 – The Chicago Bears have arguably been the worst offense in the NFL through the first 2 games. With that said, I think they turn it around this week, at least running the football. They’ll be facing a Houston Texans defense that’s allowing 4.7 YPC. This is perfect for Montgomery, who will have his fair share of opportunities; he’s top-10 in rushing attempts. The Bears are also at home and favored by a couple of points, so game flow shouldn’t be an issue. His price on DK is very respectable, and you can stack him with the Bears defense at $3,800 to get a little different from the field.
- TE Kyle Pitts $4,800 – Okay, I get it. Kyle Pitts has done nothing so far to warrant any attention. However, this is still a superstar-caliber player at a weak position that you’re spending under 10% of your salary on. This week, he gets a bad Seahawks secondary and it’s a great time to attack. Ownership projections across the industry are projecting Pitts to be more of an afterthought compared to some other guys. You’ve got to take some calculated risks to win big, and this is a perfect spot to do it. The Pitts breakout week will be this Sunday in Seattle.
- WR Allen Robinson $5,700 – After a horrific debut for the Rams, Allen Robinson played well last Sunday. He finished with 4 receptions, 53 yards and a touchdown. While those numbers are not eye popping, he was also robbed of another touchdown because someone from the press box spotted a potentially injured defender on the field. This game could be a shootout and is worth a look at a double stack with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and A-Rob. Robinson could be in line for a ton of work on Sunday, especially if the Arizona offense can keep up. The Cardinals' defense has been horrific through 2 weeks, allowing 77 touchdowns with no interceptions and 7.85 YPA. They also have just one sack and are getting absolutely no pressure on the quarterback. The Rams are clearly in a smash spot.
Honorable Mention
- RB Miles Sanders $5,500
- TE Irv Smith $3,100
- WR Curtis Samuel $5,100
STUDS
- WR Stefon Diggs $7,700 - Stefon Diggs leads all WRs in points through two weeks. He’s already caught 20 balls for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns. Those are ridiculous numbers. Diggs is still just the 5th-most expensive receiver on DraftKings. This week, he’s in a game with the highest O/U on the slate at 54. Miami and Baltimore were in an absolute shootout last week. This week against the Bills, it should be no different. He will be very popular, however, so I do prefer him in a stack with Josh Allen and coming back with one of those electric receivers on the Dolphins. It’s expensive but could pay massive returns.
- WR Davante Adams $8,400 – The more I evaluate this slate, the more I find that you’ll want to spend up at WR with all the great values at other positions. Davante Adams is priced right where he should be at $8,400. The Titans' secondary has been shaky the first couple of weeks allowing 6 touchdowns with only one interception and 8.28 YPA. Factor in that Hunter Renfrow might not play because of a concussion, and we may see Adams get targeted 15+ times, just like we saw in Week 1. I bet he won’t be as popular as he was last week either since he didn’t produce to the level that everyone thought he would.
- QB Jalen Hurts $7,600 – Where are the Jalen Hurts haters at? They’ve been hiding since he put up 25 points on the Lions, even without throwing a touchdown. His floor/ceiling combo is as good as anybody on the slate, including Josh Allen. This week, the Eagles face the Washington Commanders defense, who have been unimpressive without Chase Young. When you’re spending up at QB, you need that rushing ability; he has 28 rushing attempts for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns through 3 weeks. Pair him up with a receiver of your choice, as the Commanders have been torched by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian Kirk in back-to-back weeks.
Punts
- TE Juwan Johnson $2,900
- WR Ashton Dulin $3,900
- WR Mack Hollins $3,300
Favorite Game Stacks
- Buffalo @ Miami
- Detroit @ Minnesota
- Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona
- Philadelphia @ Washington
- Jacksonville @ Los Angeles Chargers
Reach out to me via Twitter if you have any questions or just need some DFS advice! Good luck!
