Fantasy
10/8/22
11 min read
Week 5 DFS Main Slate Tournament Games
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage and Lineup Construction.
Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, be sure to ask them on our The 33rd Team Discord.
Double Stacks
Stack: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, and TE Quintin Morris
Runback: WR George Pickens
The Bills have one of the highest implied point totals of the week, and they are not a team that stops throwing the ball with the lead. The Steelers slowed down the Bills' offense in their Week 1 victory last season. However, Pittsburgh is without T.J. Watt and has other key players on the injury report. This will make shutting down the Bills' offense again much harder.
Allen has had more than 30 DraftKings points in three of four games this year, and he would have 30-point outputs in every game this season if his wide receivers held onto the ball in the rain last week. Without Jamison Crowder, Dawson Knox and possibly Isiah McKenzie, Diggs and Gabe Davis should get plenty of targets. My reasoning for leaning toward Diggs is because of Davis' lingering ankle injury. With salaries being a factor in lineup construction, I love Morris as the punt option at the tight end position. Morris, at $2,600 on DraftKings, does not need to do much to pay off. With Knox out of the picture, he could see around 60% of routes run with this high-powered offense.
All of the Pittsburgh wide receivers are available to play in this matchup. I'm leaning toward Pickens because he is the best player in contested coverage, and Kenny Pickett showed trust in him during last week's game. Pickens averaged 3.9 yards per route run last week and a 31% target share. The Bills are still missing key players on the backend, and with his talent, he should make plays down the field.
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Stack: QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans
This will likely be the chalkiest double stack I ever write up, and when playing this group, you will need to be different in your builds. This will be a get-right game for the Buccaneers, and I see Brady wanting to find a rhythm with this new-look offense.
I don’t think they stop throwing until the late portion of the game. Since joining Tampa Bay, Brady has thrown for more than 300 yards or had four passing touchdowns in three of the four games against Atlanta. A lot of that production involved now-retired tight end Rob Gronkowski, but Brady still has plenty of weapons this season.
Evans is their healthiest wide receiver and is performing at a high level. Evans is averaging 2.76 yards per route run and gets targeted on 24.7% of his routes. Fournette lost snaps to Rachaad White last weekend, but I expect him to have those back and have a big game against the Falcons. The Falcons are giving up 4.9 yards per carry, and they haven’t faced an offense with the Buccaneers' ability to win through the air and on the ground. This is a situation where I don't need to run it back because the only viable Falcons player is Drake London, and I could see this game being a 35-10 score, which doesn’t create a ceiling game for London.
Stack: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, and WR Robert Woods
Runback: WR Terry McLaurin
When I avoid making the Brady stack I talked about above, I use Ryan Tannehill, who I believe has a great matchup against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have allowed four players to have more than 80 yards receiving this season, and three of them went for more than 100.
Without Treylon Burks (toe), Woods becomes the clear No. 1 pass catcher in this offense and will see plenty of targets. Henry's passing game usage has also increased, which has been by design. The Titans are trying to feature Henry, and the better Henry does, the more it opens the passing game for Tannehill. Wide receiver Kyle Phillips is also a name to note because he will see a lot of the slot snaps, and the Commanders have given up plenty of yardage to slot receivers this season.
The Titans' pass defense has struggled, with Las Vegas' WR Mack Hollins and Bills' WR Stefon Diggs going for more 140 yards against them this season. They've also allowed tight ends to record more than 60 yards in a game twice this season. This is one of the rare occurrences where I am considering running it back with John Bates and McLaurin.
Stack: QB Carson Wentz, McLaurin, and Bates
Runback: Henry
Liking McLaurin and Thomas makes me like Commanders QB Carson Wentz in this matchup. The Titans have given up more than 20 points to the quarterback position for three straight weeks, and all of these players have hit the 300-yard passing bonus before. Wentz leads the league in dropbacks this season, and volume is king in fantasy.
Single Stacks
Stack: QB Jalen Hurts and WR AJ Brown
Runback: TE Zach Ertz
The Eagles-Cardinals game will be one of the most popular games on the slate. Hurts has been amazing this year and hasn't had to do much in the second half of games because the Eagles are ahead. The Cardinals have switched from a man scheme to a zone scheme, and as a result, they have improved their ability to defend receivers. The problem will be keeping Brown from making plays after the catch because he has had more than 100 yards this season after the catch against zone coverage. If I were double-stacking Hurts, it would be with Dallas Goedert and making the lineup unique by being a double-tight-end build.
On the Cardinals side, I will be utilizing Ertz as my primary runback because he's gotten six receptions in three straight games. The Eagles have also struggled against tight ends this season from a routes run perspective. They are giving up 1.68 yards per route run to tight ends, and if Vikings' tight end Irv Smith held onto the pass he dropped in Week 1, that number would be much higher.
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Mini-Stacks
Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots
WR Josh Reynolds and RB Rhamondre Stevenson
If Amon-Ra St.Brown (ankle) cannot go, this will be another big spot for Reynolds, who has put up more than 80 yards receiving in back-to-back weeks. Reynolds and tight end T.J. Hockenson will carry the passing game, but if safety Patriots' safety Kyle Dugger plays, I will not be trying to get to Hockenson.
With Bailey Zappe likely to see the start at quarterback for New England, I expect a heavy dose of Stevenson and Damien Harris. I lean towards Stevenson because when I was utilizing The 33rd Team's "The EDGE" tool, I saw how the Lions struggled against a gap running scheme, and Stevenson averaged 7.4 yards per carry on gap runs. Harris averages more than five yards per carry on gap scheme runs, but he hasn’t been quite as effective as Stevenson.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
TE Gerald Everett and RB Nick Chubb
Last year, we saw this game go nuclear, and this year I expect a high total again. Early on, the Browns' secondary communication issues led them to give up big plays. Recently, they started playing more man coverage, which has fixed some of those issues. In man coverage this season, Herbert has frequently gone to Mike Williams and Everett. Against man coverage, Williams has a 39.5% target share and Everett has a 23.7% target share. Both are players I would run it back with, but I lean toward Everett when factoring in the price of Chubb.
On the Browns' side, their offensive line dominates everybody they come up against. The Chargers lost Joey Bosa (groin) to injured reserve drastically weakening their front seven, giving Cleveland's line even more of an edge. Chubb is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and the Chargers are giving up 6.1 yards per carry. The only concern for Chubb is having Hunt steal the touchdown work, but as Texans' RB Dameon Pierce proved last week against this Chargers defense, Chubb can score from outside of the red zone.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
WR Tyreek Hill and WR Garrett Wilson
Dolphins QB Teddy Bridgewater came into the game last week against the Bengals and targeted Hill plenty of times. I expect that to continue this weekend when starts in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). Hill has averaged 3.7 yards per route run and has a 30% target share vs. zone and man coverage.
Zach Wilson led the Jets to victory but did not look great as a passer as he only completed 50% of his passes. In mini-stacks with Hill, Garrett Wilson is my favorite player because he was the one heavily targeted, and I don’t believe the Dolphins can contain him in man coverage. Against man coverage, Garrett Wilson is averaging 3.1 yards per route run with a 27% target share, and against the blitz, he has a 29% target share.
One-Offs
Jaguars RB James Robinson
The Texans have allowed three running backs to go for more than 30 DraftKings points this season, and Robinson has been the better back in Jacksonville. Last weekend, he did lose work to Etienne because of the game script, but I don’t see them being down in this one. Robinson has been stuffed at the line of scrimmage many times this season, but he’s also had more attempts with eight or more defenders in the box.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
Jefferson is always in for a massive game, and with the Chicago Bears not blitzing much, he will have plenty of opportunities down the field.
Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | vs PIT | $8,200 | $9,000 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | @ ARI | $8,100 | $8,600 |
| Tom Brady | QB | TB | vs ATL | $6,000 | $7,800 |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | @ WAS | $5,800 | $6,900 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | WAS | vs TEN | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | @ WAS | $8,200 | $8,900 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | vs LAC | $8,000 | $9,400 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | @ CLE | $7,800 | $9,000 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | TB | vs ATL | $6,900 | $7,800 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | vs SEA | $6,600 | $7,000 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | DET | @ NE | $6,500 | $8,300 |
| James Robinson | RB | JAC | vs HOU | $6,300 | $8,000 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | BUF | vs PIT | $6,100 | $6,000 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | CLE | vs LAC | $6,000 | $5,900 |
| Damien Harris | RB | NE | vs DET | $5,600 | $7,200 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | vs DET | $5,500 | $6,000 |
| Travis Etienne | RB | JAC | vs HOU | $5,100 | $5,600 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | vs CHI | $8,900 | $8,800 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | vs PIT | $8,400 | $8,600 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | @ NYJ | $8,000 | $8,400 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | @ NE | $7,600 | $8,200 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | @ ARI | $7,500 | $8,000 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | ARI | vs PHI | $7,200 | $7,800 |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | @ CLE | $7,100 | $7,400 |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | vs ATL | $6,900 | $7,500 |
| Gabriel Davis | WR | BUF | vs PIT | $6,400 | $6,000 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | vs TEN | $6,200 | $6,500 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | @ BUF | $6,100 | $6,700 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | HOU | @ JAC | $6,100 | $6,800 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | @ ARI | $6,000 | $6,600 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | @ TB | $5,900 | $6,200 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | vs ATL | $5,900 | $7,000 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | WAS | vs TEN | $5,800 | $5,800 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | vs SEA | $5,700 | $6,900 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | @ NO | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | vs MIA | $5,200 | $6,000 |
| Robert Woods | WR | TEN | @ WAS | $5,200 | $5,900 |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | DET | @ NE | $4,900 | $6,400 |
| Russell Gage | WR | TB | vs ATL | $4,900 | $6,200 |
| D.J. Chark | WR | DET | @ NE | $4,800 | $5,600 |
| Chase Claypool | WR | PIT | @ BUF | $4,400 | $5,600 |
| George Pickens | WR | PIT | @ BUF | $4,300 | $5,500 |
| Rondale Moore | WR | ARI | vs PHI | $4,100 | $5,200 |
| Kyle Philips | WR | TEN | @ WAS | $3,900 | $5,200 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | vs PIT | $3,200 | $5,000 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | ARI | vs PHI | $4,800 | $5,900 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | @ ARI | $4,700 | $6,100 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | vs DAL | $4,300 | $5,500 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | @ BUF | $4,100 | $5,800 |
| David Njoku | TE | CLE | vs LAC | $3,800 | $5,700 |
| John Bates | TE | WAS | vs TEN | $2,600 | $4,400 |
| Quintin Morris | TE | BUF | vs PIT | $2,600 | $4,200 |
| Jaguars | DST | JAC | vs HOU | $3,400 | $4,600 |
| Dolphins | DST | MIA | @ NYJ | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Titans | DST | TEN | @ WAS | $3,000 | $4,200 |
| Browns | DST | CLE | vs LAC | $2,700 | $4,000 |
| Panthers | DST | CAR | vs SF | $2,600 | $3,600 |
Watch More: Players to Start/Sit in Week 5 | Josh Larky’s Fantasy World
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