Fantasy
10/8/22
6 min read
Bengals vs. Ravens: Sunday Night DFS Showdown
The Bengals, off of ten days of rest, travel to Baltimore as three-and-a-half-point underdogs. I was shocked to see that the Ravens were the favorites considering how last year went for them in this matchup. Vegas isn’t always right, but they are historically the best when it comes to game predictions.
Vegas Line: Ravens -3.5
Over/Under: 48
Notable Injuries:
Bengals: WR Tee Higgins (Questionable), TE Hayden Hurst (Questionable), TE Devin Asiasi (Questionable)
Ravens: WR Rashod Bateman (Out), RB Justice Hill (Out), OT Ronnie Stanley (Questionable), G Ben Cleveland (Out), OLB Justin Houston (Out), CB Marcus Peters (Questionable)
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Bengals Offense vs. Ravens Defense
- The Ravens Defense is running Zone coverage at a 68% rate and blitzing on 25% of dropbacks.
- Quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards in three of the four weeks against the Ravens, and ironically only Josh Allen was unable to do so.
- Joe Burrow, on the season, has averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, 7.3 air yards per attempt, and a 5.1% touchdown pass rate.
- Burrow had his most efficient game as a passer last weekend, averaging over 9.3 yards per attempt, 9.8 air yards per attempt, and a 6.5% touchdown pass rate. This aligns with being sacked on 2.9% of dropbacks and getting man coverage on 48.5% of plays.
- The number one receiver in this Bengals offense, off-key metrics, has been Tee Higgins.
- Higgins averages 2.5 yards per route run overall and 2.7 yards per route run vs. zone coverage.
- Higgins is getting targeted on 22.2% of his routes run vs. zone coverage.
- Ja’Marr Chase averages 1.6 yards per route run overall and against zone coverage.
- Chase is getting targeted on 20.8% of his routes run vs. zone coverage.
- Tyler Boyd has been effective vs. teams that play man coverage and blitz, which is not the case in this matchup.
- Joe Mixon has a ton of volume to begin the year, and last week was able to find the endzone for the first time.
- Mixon will dominate the touches and will be the first time the Ravens see a workhorse running back.
- Mixon is averaging 2.7 yards a carry, but the Ravens are giving up 4.8 yards per carry to running backs this year.
- The stat to know for Mixon is that he has been targeted on 23.7% of his routes vs. zone coverage and will likely see a good target share against the Ravens' defense.
Ravens Offense vs. Bengals Defense
- The Bengals Defense is running zone coverage at a 69% rate and blitzing on just 19% of dropbacks.
- This will be the first matchup for the Bengals vs. an elite quarterback, as they have played Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush, and Joe Flacco. Against Miami, their quarterbacks combined for 300 yards passing, averaging over nine air yards per attempt.
- Lamar Jackson is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, 9.3 air yards per attempt, and a 9.4% touchdown passing rate.
- Jackson is not in a favorable passing matchup because Rashod Bateman is out, and he will not get blitzed or man coverage.
- Jackson has also not thrown for over 300 yards against the Bengals in his career but has run for over 60 yards in five of his six starts.
- Without Bateman, Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay, and Demarcus Robinson become the three wide receivers that will need to make plays down the field.
- Andrews will always be the main receiver with Jackson, as he has been targeted on 28.4% of his routes and averages 2.1 yards per route run.
- Duvernay and Robinson only get targeted on 15% of their routes run, but both of their route trees feature plenty of down-the-field routes.
- The one thing quarterbacks have done against this Cincinnati defense is target players down the field, with three quarterbacks averaging over nine air yards per attempt.
- In the running back room, JK Dobbins will be the lead back, with either Kenyan Drake or Mike Davis being the backup.
- Dobbins has only averaged 3.2 yards per carry this season, and the Bengals have been one of the best run defenses in football.
- The best thing Dobbins has is that he gets targeted on 22.2% of his routes run vs. zone coverage, and with the linebackers staying home against Jackson, Dobbins will have space on the outside.
Multiplier Pool
- Lamar Jackson
- This is a game where I expect Jackson to utilize his legs, opening up the door for deep shots down the field.
- I don’t anticipate a big passing day from Jackson, but I believe he can get the 100-yard rushing bonus.
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Chase destroyed this Ravens' secondary last year, and they have given up plenty of big plays this season.
- Tee Higgins
- Higgins will be one of the most popular plays this week because of his price compared to Chase.
- J.K. Dobbins
- Dobbins will likely see a majority of the work in this backfield and is getting better as a player each week.
- Devin Duvernay
- Duvernay isn’t going to be popular at the multiplier spot, but I believe that the way teams have attacked the Bengals and the emphasis on stopping Jackson as a runner will result in a big play opportunity for Duvernay or Robinson.
- Demarcus Robinson
- Robinson will get an elevated role and scored against this Bengals secondary with the Chiefs in Week 17 last year.
FLEX Pool
- Joe Burrow
- The playcalling of this offense leads me to keep Burrow out of the multiplier category. I expect Burrow to start slow because of the run-heavy style they have right now, but in the second half come out strong when they stop running it.
- Mark Andrews
- Andrews will see plenty of targets, but I believe the attention he brings opens the door for the other pass catchers.
- Ravens DST
- There will be a high sack opportunity after stopping Mixon in the running game, and as a home favorite, I like the Ravens' defense.
- Justin Tucker
- Tucker is automatic from any distance, and I expect Harbaugh to be less aggressive than last weekend.
- Evan McPherson
- With the Ravens' defense getting sacks, it opens the door for long McPherson field goals.
- Isaiah Likely
- With Bateman out, Likely could see more snaps and has been schemed up touches this year.
- Pat Ricard
- Ricard has a catch in three of the four games to begin the year. He had three receptions against the Bills' heavy zone scheme last weekend.
WATCH MORE: Rod Woodson: Ravens DBs vs Chase, Higgins Matchup of the Week
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