Betting
10/14/22
8 min read
Matchups Week 6: Ravens vs. Giants
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (4-1)
Opening Spread: Giants +5.5.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Team Totals: Giants (19), Ravens (24.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants +5.5.
- This line remains at Giants +5.5 as of Wednesday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants +4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants +5.5.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 45.5 points as of Wednesday evening.
Notable Injuries
Giants: IR: CB Aaron Robinson. Questionable: RB Saquon Barkley, FB Chris Myarick, WR Kadarius Toney, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, Edge Azeez Ojulari, DL Leonard Williams, CB Adoree’ Jackson.
Ravens: IR: NT Michael Pierce, CB Kyle Fuller, S Marcus Williams. Questionable: RB Justice Hill, WR Rashod Bateman, LT Ronnie Stanley, Edge Justin Houston.
The Giants Offense vs. the Ravens Defense
I have both the Ravens front four and the Giants offensive line as units that are on the average to below average fringe. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense.
Betting Notes
- The Giants are 4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 23-19 against the spread in his career.
- Daniel Jones is 16-24-2 on overs in his career.
- Brian Daboll is 4-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brian Daboll is 2-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Giants Offense
- The Giants are scoring 20.6 points per game, good for 19th in the league.
- New York is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Daniel Jones is 28th in the league in yards passing, he’s 32nd in yards per attempt, and he’s 40th in air yards per attempt.
- Among quarterbacks, Jones has the third-most yards rushing (230).
- Saquon Barkley is second in the league in yards rushing (533), and he’s seventh among running backs in yards receiving (143).
- The Giants' wide receiver corps has been ravaged by injuries, leaving them with replacement-level talent at the position over the last several weeks. However, speedster Darius Slayton caught six-of-seven targets for 79 yards receiving against Green Bay last week. Until Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson return, Slayton has the most upside out of the rest of the Giants' wide receivers.
- Tight end Daniel Bellinger has had between three and five targets in each of the last three games.
- Per TruMedia, Darius Slayton has played 75 snaps on the perimeter and only nine in the slot.
- Bellinger is seventh in the league in snaps as an inline tight end with 160. Bellinger has played 12 snaps on the perimeter and 15 from the slot.
Ravens Defense
- The Ravens have allowed 23.4 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing and the fifth-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the second-most yards receiving on the most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has given up the sixth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers and the second-most to wide receivers lined up in the slot.
- The Ravens have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving on the 19th-most receptions this season.
- The Ravens have allowed the sixth-most PPR points to tight ends in the slot.
The Ravens Offense vs. the Giants Defense
The Giants front four has yet to play a game this season at full strength. Once they get to that point, the Giants have a fringe top-ten front that could easily find themselves within the top 10 given how well defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is playing. Ravens left tackle Ronnie Staley has recently returned to action, making Baltimore a fringe top-10 offensive line. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense, while Lamar Jackson’s evasion abilities serve as an asset for the Ravens in pass protection and in the run game.
Betting Notes
- The Ravens are 3-2 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Lamar Jackson is 30-23-1 against the spread in his career.
- Lamar Jackson is 27-27 on overs in his career.
- John Harbaugh is 116-105-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- John Harbaugh is 112-117 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Ravens Offense
- The Ravens are scoring 27.6 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- Baltimore is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge Lamar Jackson is 18th in the league in yards passing, he’s 19th in yards per attempt, and he’s seventh in air yards per attempt.
- Jackson leads all quarterbacks in yards rushing with 374, which would be ninth in the league overall.
- After returning from injury in Week 3, J.K. Dobbins saw a bit of an opportunity spike in Week 4, where he saw 13 carries and four targets. Last Sunday night against the Bengals stout run defense, Dobbins only had eight carries with no targets.
- Rashod Bateman missed Sunday Night Football against the Bengals last week. Through the first four games, Bateman has had four receptions or less in all of them.
- Devin Duvernay had four receptions against Buffalo in Week 4 and five against the Bengals last week while Bateman was sidelined.
- Among all pass catchers, Mark Andrews is ninth in the league in receptions (32), 15th in yards receiving (349), and he’s tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (four). Andrews is third in the league in target share (32.9%) and 19th in air yards share (35.4%).
- Andrews is a legit WR1 that plays tight end.
- Per TruMedia, Andrews has played 63 snaps as an inline tight end, 58 on the perimeter, and 137 from the slot.
Giants Defense
- The Giants have allowed 18.6 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the eighth-most yards rushing and the 28th-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- New York has given up the 29th-most yards receiving on the 29th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- The Giants have given up the 17th-most yards receiving on the 12th-most receptions to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Ravens vs. Giants
A bet on the Giants is a bet on Daboll’s coaching staff continuing to get the absolute most out of their team on both sides of the ball. If you’re taking the Giants, you’re taking Jones to continue playing ultra-conservative but effective football while Saquon Barkley continues to be the best running back in the league.
You also need the Giants defense to continue playing like a top-ten group. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale called the defense in Baltimore for years, so he’s very familiar with the Ravens' roster and coaching staff. You have two obvious concerns with a Giants bet. The first is that Lamar Jackson is a historically unique player that routinely carries his offense. The second is New York is coming off an emotional, improbable upset win in London last week. It’s an obvious letdown spot against a more talented team, but that was the case last week against Green Bay as well.
A bet on the Ravens is a bet on Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP-caliber level. Tight end Mark Andrews is the only reliable, difference-making skill position player that Jackson has. A bet on the Ravens is a bet on Jackson carrying this offense as he often does. This could be a get-well spot for Baltimore’s underachieving secondary, especially if Kadarius Toney sits out this contest. Something to consider with a Ravens bet is that they’ve played in three one-score games in their last four contests.
Your biggest concern with a Ravens bet is that the Giants are getting the most out of their limited roster every week. Giants defensive coordinator Martindale is very familiar with Baltimore, having served as their defensive coordinator for years. That also means that Baltimore is very familiar with Martindale.
Ravens vs. Giants Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Lamar Jackson is an MVP contender. Barkley is the Comeback Player of the Year favorite. Daboll is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking the Ravens in winner pools this week, though the Giants are an interesting differentiator option in larger field pools with weekly payouts. In confidence pools, I expect that I will have the Ravens ranked slightly higher than the consensus.
Spread Pool: I have no current intentions to play this game against the spread in tournaments. However, it would not surprise me if the Giants came back down to earth a little in this spot.
Survivor Pool: Baltimore is not an automatic cross-off as a 6-point road favorite on a difficult survivor pool slate.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
Watch More: Chris Johnson on Which Offense He'd Fit Best in Today
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