Fantasy

11/6/22

23 min read

Josh Larky's Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

By Josh Larky

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Below you’ll find my Week 9 fantasy rankings for PPR/Half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-26 QB Rankings, top-39 RB Rankings, top-46 WR Rankings, and top-19 TE Rankings.

For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup, and implied team total, according to Vegas. For example, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions have a Vegas game total of 50, with the Packers favored by 3.5 points (26.75 points implied for the Packers, 23.25 points implied for the Lions). Seeing the implied point totals can help you understand which games are projected to be the highest scoring.

xPPR (expected PPR points) is a new stat added in Week 4. Think of this as each player’s average expected fantasy points per game based on their underlying usage.

Teams coming off a Week 8 bye: Chiefs, Chargers

Teams on Week 9 bye: Browns, 49ers, Cowboys, Steelers, Giants, Broncos

Detailed player write-ups appear beneath each position group to add more context to these rankings.

Top-26 Quarterbacks

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• With Josh Allen, it's really not particularly close each week. Screenshot from our free and flagship tool, The Edge.

• The Titans allow the seventh most passing yards per attempt (7.5) to opposing QBs, via The Edge. The Titans allow the ninth most passing yards per game overall, but the fourth fewest rushing yards per game. Patrick Mahomes is tee'd up to smash in Week 9, and I'm anticipating a 300+ yard performance from him, especially with shiny new toy Kadarius Toney likely to see some snaps in this contest.
• Kyler Murray was held below 7.0 yards per attempt in his first six games of the season. He's been over that number the past two games with DeAndre Hopkins back. Kyler faces a middle of the road Seahawks pass defense, and he's also running more in the red zone recently. After one red zone carry through his first three weeks, Kyler has run ten times in the five games since, including three times at the goal line.
• Ranking Lamar Jackson at QB5 *could* be seen as fading him against the Saints. I'm concerned about him missing Rashod Bateman (foot) in this game, along with Mark Andrews' status up in the air. The Saints had generally been a defense to target in fantasy - prior to them shutting out the Raiders in Week 9 - but if Lamar has Kenyan Drake in the backfield and Devin Duvernay as his top target, I will be justifiably concerned.
• MIN-WAS is a matchup between two bottom-10 pass defenses. This is the type of game I'll always target in fantasy, and you'll notice both Kirk Cousins and Taylor Heinicke are elevated in this week's rankings.
• Justin Herbert has been disappointing for fantasy this season, and he'll now be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this Sunday against Atlanta. The Falcons, who allow a league-high 318 passing yards per game to opposing QBs, are the cake matchup Herbert needs to remain fantasy relevant in Week 9.
• The Detroit Lions allow over 275 passing yards per game to opposing QBs, and because they cannot stop anyone near the red zone, Detroit also allows the second most fantasy points per game to the position. Aaron Rodgers is a strong start in Week 9, as five of seven QBs have scored over 20 fantasy points against Detroit.
• Joe Burrow struggled in Week 8 against the Browns, his first game without Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers are the 27th ranked pass defense via Football Outsiders' DVOA, and the Bengals' game plan should be more cohesive after getting embarrassed on prime time. Expect a bounce back from this entire passing offense.
• Justin Fields is now an every week starter in 12-team leagues, after compiling 17 or more fantasy points each of the past four games, and 24 or more in the past two. He’s averaging 10 rush attempts and 69 rushing yards per game in this four game stretch, along with a healthy 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He now gets a MIA defense that’s struggled this season.
• Geno Smith faces a Cardinals defense allowing 20.7 fantasy points to opposing QBs, sixth most in the NFL. The Cardinals' It all shapes up for a healthy dose of Geno, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett in Week 9.
• Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt this season. No other QB is averaging more than 8.5 (Jalen Hurts). The Bears have not been a great matchup to target for QBs this year, but I want to keep betting on a passing offense that has been incredibly effective at getting the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, allowing them to make plays. The Bears play a unique style of football, so while Tua should be started in all 12-team formats, there is some downside risk I want to acknowledge. Only 1 QB has thrown more than 32 times against the Bears (Cousins), and he was the only QB to top 250 passing yards against CHI (42 pass attempts in that Week 5 game).

• Tom Brady is probably in a bad mental space, as he goes through his divorce. You cannot start him in fantasy currently, as he doesn't look like his usual self. He has thrown for more than one TD pass in just a single game this year, and has only topped 18 fantasy points in one game on the season.
• Malik Willis is starting in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill. In his first career start in Week 8, he threw ten times, completing six for 55 yards. He also rushed five times for 12 yards. I'd expect a significant improvement from that stat line, as TEN was able to control the clock and secure a win last week against Houston. Facing the Chiefs in Week 9, Willis will be forced to throw more, as well as use his legs. I'd anticipate closer to 20 pass attempts and around ten rush attempts, though he should remain highly inefficient once again. I would not recommend streaming Malik Willis.

Top-39 Running Backs

• Alvin Kamara is my RB1 for Week 9, as he's averaging 18 rush attempts and 8.5 targets per game the past four games. The role is outrageous and he's averaging 26 PPR points per game during this span. Baltimore has a well below average run defense, and they're allowing the seventh most receiving yards per game to RBs this year. Giddy up!
• Rhamondre Stevenson is likely to play without Damien Harris splitting carries, as Harris is doubtful due to illness. In three games (Weeks 5-7) where Harris played under 20% of the snaps, Rhamondre is averaging 22.8 PPR points per game, with at least 19.5 points in all three contests. While the Colts are stingy on the ground, they do allow the fifth most receiving yards per game to opposing backs, via The Edge.
• Travis Etienne cracks the Top-6 for the first time this season. He has at least 108 total yards in each of his past four games, and as the starter the past two weeks, he has 10 red zone carries, five of those at the goal line. My expected fantasy points model loves his usage the past couple weeks, giving him over 21 expected fantasy points in each one.
• Aaron Jones is in line for a great fantasy performance in Week 9. Despite an up-and-down season, Jones ranks 11th in fantasy points per game, and now faces a DET defense allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
• Miles Sanders faces the Houston Texans, who have allowed an opposing runner to rack up more than 27 fantasy points in five of seven games this season. Overall, HOU allows 33.9 PPR points per game to opposing backs - no other team is even allowing 30 per game.
• Deon Jackson draws his second start with Jonathan Taylor ruled OUT with an ankle injury. In his first start, Jackson brought in all ten of his targets for 79 yards receiving, while also carrying 12 times. Matt Ryan was his QB for that contest, but I'm still expecting a heavy dose of Jackson targets from Sam Ehlinger, as the Patriots defense should shut down the rookie QB in this contest. I wouldn't expect too much on the ground, but Jackson should deliver in fantasy through the air once again.
• James Conner is a true game-time decision for Week 9, but draws a tantalizing matchup against a Seahawks defense that invites checkdowns to the RB position. Conner should see 12-15 carries and four to eight targets in this contest, should he suit up. If he's inactive, slot Eno Benjamin in as a Top-15 fantasy option.
• I'll be monitoring D'Andre Swift's health status for Week 9, after he sat out of Wednesday's practice. He'd be a Top-8 option this week if I knew he was fully healthy with no restrictions. Even with around ten touches, he's still capable of an RB1 performance thanks to his pass-catching and explosiveness. Swift out-snapped Jamaal Williams 29-22 in Week 8, with Jamaal getting twice as many carries (ten to five), while Swift ran nearly twice as many routes (21-12) and commanded five targets to Williams' three. Jamaal was also the goal line back in Week 8. If you want floor, Jamaal is a near lock for 10-15 touches in this contest. If you want ceiling, Swift had 14 fantasy points in Week 8 on only ten touches, and any increase in his workload could lead to the overall RB1 performance on the week. Right now, I'd lean Jamaal over Swift due to more workload certainty for Jamaal as the healthier option. The Packers have been a defense to target for running backs, as they cede 5.1 yards per carry on the ground, via The Edge.
• Cordarrelle Patterson is set to return in Week 9, and has the dream matchup - the Chargers defense. The Chargers allow 6.1 yards per carry to opposing backs, most in the NFL, via The Edge. Patterson's return should bolster the entire offense, and the Chargers allow 27 points per game to opponents, second-most in the NFL (behind only Detroit).
• Chuba Hubbard has been ruled OUT for Week 9, and D'Onta Foreman has 118 rushing yards in back-to-back games. He should garner 20 touches against a tough Bengals defense in Week 9.
• Raheem Mostert faces a Chicago team allowing 4.9 yards per carry to opposing backs. However, the team traded for Jeff Wilson at the deadline, and MIA Head Coach Mike McDaniel has familiarity with Wilson from his time in SF. Wilson is most likely an upgrade from the inefficient Chase Edmonds, and poses more of a threat to Mostert's touches moving forward.
• Antonio Gibson has 14 combined carries/targets in back-to-back games, and received the two red zone carries over Brian Robinson in Week 8. Gibson has a nice floor, as he's slid into the JD McKissic pass-catching role - while also splitting carries with Robinson.
• AJ Dillon has been disappointing in fantasy, tallying under ten fantasy points in each of his past seven games. However, he's still touching the ball, with double digit touches in all but two games on the season. In Week 6, AJ Dillon out-carried and out-targeted Aaron Jones. Fast-forward three weeks, and Jones is now coming off a 20 carry performance in Week 8, his biggest workload of the season, so there's a chance the team leans more heavily on AJ Dillon in a game they're favored to lead in and win. Additionally, Detroit has given up double digit fantasy performances to ten RBs (in seven games), and three of them had ten or fewer total touches. The Detroit Lions also allow over 32 points to opposing teams (second place is LAC at 27 points allowed for context), so AJ Dillon has a great chance of finding the end zone in this contest.
• Kenyan Drake should operate as a workhorse for Baltimore in Week 9, with Gus Edwards (hamstring) unlikely to suit up. Drake has at least 16 fantasy points and a TD in two of the past three weeks, and projects for 10-15 carries and one to four targets in an above average offense. Because there are six teams on bye, Drake finds himself as a Top-24 option this week.
• Devin Singletary has single digit fantasy points in every Buffalo blowout win, and this week's game against NYJ projects for this type of game flow.
• David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert find themselves back-to-back in my Week 9 rankings. The two are splitting touches fairly evenly the past two weeks, with a decent edge in snaps and red zone work to Montgomery. Herbert has been more explosive with his touches though, keeping them neck and neck this week. Overall, both have double digit fantasy points each of the past two weeks, and MIA is a slightly above average fantasy matchup for backs in 2022.
• I'd prefer not to start any KC RB in Week 9, after Week 7 was a true three way committee, and Week 8 was their bye. It's tough to get a good read on the situation, but I expect all three to remain involved in a tough Week 9 matchup against Tennessee.
• Michael Carter dominated the snaps and touches in Week 8, though it's clear the team does not view him similarly to Breece Hall. Carter was only given seven carries in Week 8, though he salvaged his fantasy day with seven targets, catching four of them. James Robinson should be even more involved in Week 9, and Buffalo is a smothering run defense.
• Nyheim Hines was just traded to Buffalo, and I think he takes over this passing game sooner rather than later.

Nyheim Hines is the #1 waiver wire add this week now that he’s been traded to BUF

BUF clearly wants a receiving back to be a major part of this offense

This year already, they

-Tried unsuccessfully to sign JD McKissic
-Drafted a pass-catching RB in Round 2 of the Draft

(1/2)

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 1, 2022

• Cam Akers was a full practice participant on Thursday, and I'd expect him active in Week 9. This is a backfield to avoid for fantasy purposes, and I wouldn't feel confident starting any of them against Tampa Bay.

Top-46 Wide Receivers

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• DeAndre Hopkins is my overall WR1 for Week 9. He’s had at least 13 targets and a 30% or better target share in both games, topping 100 yards in each contest. Seattle’s average secondary is going to have fits trying to guard him.
• The Texans have a perfectly average pass defense, and are not actually a matchup to target for WRs (contrary to public perception). The floor with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith is lower than usual this week, as PHI may run all over HOU in Week 9.
• Chris Olave is averaging 8.5 targets, 70 yards, 106 air yards, and 15 fantasy points per game with Andy Dalton the past four games. He's had three red zone (two end zone) targets in this span, too. The Ravens also happen to allow 266 passing yards per game, fifth most in the NFL.
• DK Metcalf suffered a patella tendon injury in Week 7 that usually comes with a multi-week recovery. He may be an alien, as he had a team-high ten targets in Week 8, bringing in six for 55 yards and a TD. In eight games this season, there have only been three individual occurrences (out of 16) where either Metcalf or Tyler Lockett commanded under 20% of the team’s targets. Both continue to be weekly top-24 fantasy options.
• While Gabe Davis had under six fantasy points in Week 8, it was arguably his best usage of the season. He set season-highs in both targets (seven) and target share (28%), so confidently fire him up again this week.
• Stay patient with Christian Kirk. He had a 25% target share in Week 8, and has been at 20% or higher in all but one game this season. The Raiders allow the eighth most passing yards per game to opponents.
• DJ Moore is averaging 10 targets, 110 receiving yards, and 23.5 PPR points per game the past two weeks, now that CMC and Robbie Anderson are elsewhere. This is still not an offense to get excited about, but there's a case for him to be a Top-15 option this week based on volume alone.
• Terry McLaurin is averaging eight targets, 93 yards, 100 air yards, and 17.5 fantasy points per game this season with Taylor Heinicke. The Vikings have a well below average pass defense, allowing nearly four pass plays of 20+ yards per game.
• Josh Palmer is a strong start in Week 9, with Mike Williams OUT and Keenan Allen most likely missing Week 9, as well. Palmer has at least six targets in four of six games, and at least eight targets in three of six. He's topped 13 fantasy points in three games, too. The Falcons are a defense to target for WRs, as they're the only team allowing more than 300 passing yards per game to opponents. DeAndre Carter will be playing a full snap share too, and he's a viable fantasy starter against Atlanta. While he has only one game with double digit fantasy points, he has at least five targets in back-to-back games, and was targeted in the end zone in Week 7 before their bye. I'd expect six to eight targets and around 40 or 50 receiving yards.
• Romeo Doubs is a strong start in Week 9 if Allen Lazard sits. Lazard is a true game-time decision after practicing in a limited fashion all week. The Lions allow 8.4 yards per attempt to opposing passers, highest in the NFL. Doubs has averaged seven targets per game over the past six weeks, and returned to Aaron Rodgers’ good graces in Week 8, making a spectacular TD grab. He should get seven to ten targets against the NFL’s worst secondary in Week 9 should Lazard sit. If active, Lazard has a nice combination of floor and upside, as he has at least ten fantasy points in every game from Week 3 onward.
• The Jets passed 42 times (compared to only 14 RB rush attempts) in Week 8, their first game without Breece Hall. I'm expecting another pass-heavy game plan against Buffalo, and Garrett Wilson is the clear volume play, with Corey Davis (MCL) and Elijah Moore (personal/trade) unlikely to contribute much.
• Rondale Moore has at least eight targets in three of his past four games, though his average depth of target was below five in all three. He needs volume to produce in this role, and has gotten said volume recently. ARI-SEA should be a fairly high-scoring game, and both Kyler Murray (32.3 seconds/play) and Geno Smith (33.9 seconds/play) are Top-4 in pace, via The Edge.

• Josh Reynolds is doubtful, and Kalif Raymond should see extra run in this game. He has at least seven targets or 75 yards in each of his past three games, tallying at least 9.5 PPR points in all of them. He's mainly a floor play, as GB's secondary is very strong on paper, and Raymond is at his best when he's the WR3 in an offense. However, TJ Hockenson is now a Viking, so I'd be surprised if Raymond wasn't second on this team in targets behind Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 9.
• This is the first week I'm ranking Mack Hollins ahead of Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow still has the massive track record advantage, but Hollins is commanding the more valuable downfield targets in this offense. Their per game stats are shown below.

• Kadarius Toney was traded to KC prior to their Week 8 bye. He should make his Chiefs debut in Week 9 against TEN.

🚨 Kadarius Toney was TRADED to KC

Trust me, his rookie season was BETTER than you remember pic.twitter.com/s5OhvKcMHb

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 27, 2022

• Jarvis Landry is on track to suit up on Monday Night Football against the Saints. I wouldn't expect too much from him for fantasy purposes, but you can flex him in a pinch with six teams on bye. I'd expect five to eight targets at a low average depth of target.
• Chase Claypool was traded to CHI at the deadline, and this likely hurts him rest of season due to Chicago's tremendously low pass volume compared to PIT (37 for PIT, 20 for CHI).

Top-19 Tight Ends

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• Dallas Goedert has at least 60 receiving yards in five of seven games this season.
• Gerald Everett has at least six targets in five of seven games this year. He has a red zone target in all but one game, too. If Keenan Allen can't go in Week 9, I'd rank Everett ahead of Dallas Goedert, though PHI will play on TNF, making this purely an interesting hypothetical.
• Mark Andrews is doubtful for Monday night, and when he went out early in Week 8 with a shoulder injury, Isaiah Likely filled in smoothly, with six catches for 77 yards and a TD. Likely will be competing for targets with Devin Duvernay and not much else in Week 9, and the athletic rookie should be a featured weapon in the passing game. This is a TE-centric offense, and I want to be aggressive with where I'm ranking Likely.
• The Falcons finally passed the ball, with Mariota attempting 28 passes in Week 8, after 14 or fewer in the prior two games. Kyle Pitts was the primary beneficiary on Sunday, with a team-leading nine targets (32% share, two end zone targets), bringing in five for 80 yards and a TD.
• Mike Gesicki has four end zone targets over his past three games, topping 12 fantasy points in two of his past three. He's on the higher end of the boom/bust TEs that need to find the end zone to be fantasy relevant.
• Evan Engram has at least six targets and nine fantasy points in four straight games.
• Robert Tonyan is averaging six targets, five receptions, and 40 yards per game the past six weeks. Detroit is an elite defense to target for all skill position players, and Tonyan should see a nice target floor with both Allen Lazard and Christian Watson likely to miss Week 9.
• Tyler Conklin had ten targets, catching six for 79 yards and a pair of TDs. He also had a whopping four end zone targets in Week 8, too. The Jets should pass early/often against BUF, and he may be the de facto No. 2 option in the pass game behind Garrett Wilson with the injury to Corey Davis and the personal issues with Elijah Moore.
• Foster Moreau filled in admirably for Darren Waller in Week 8, leading the team with nine targets, catching six for 31 yards. Waller is slated to miss Week 9 due to injury.
• TJ Hockenson was traded to MIN at the deadline, and should take on a larger role in this offense than Irv Smith. How much larger is to be determined, but I think he slots in ahead of KJ Osborn, but behind Adam Thielen, either this week or next week.

These Week 9 fantasy rankings will be updated throughout the week. Make sure to check this post each day throughout the week as the news hits.

Watch More: Chase Claypool Trade Reaction

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.