Analysis
11/2/22
6 min read
Eagles vs. Texans TNF DFS Showdown
The Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated and have won in many different ways. They are an elite team in all phases of the game, and the one area that stands out most is their +14 turnover differential. They are massive favorites on the road, but this Houston Texans defense will play them much differently than the Pittsburgh Steelers did last week.
Texans coach Lovie Smith sticks to his Tampa-2 coverage and attempts to prevent teams from throwing it down the field. Unfortunately, Houston's front seven is playing poorly, resulting in four running backs rushing for more than 140 yards. The Texans are one of six teams giving up five yards per carry, and last weekend they gave up 314 yards on the ground to the Tennessee Titans. On a short week against an undefeated team, the Texans will be hard to implement adjustments.
Vegas Line: Eagles -13
Over/Under: 44
Notable Injuries:
Eagles: IR: Edge Derek Barnett. OUT: DT Jordan Davis.
Texans: IR: Edge Jonathan Greenard, WR Nico Collins, WR Brandin Cooks. Questionable: DT Maliek Collins, LB Christian Harris.
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Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Eagles Offense vs. Texans Defense
- Eagles QB Jalen Hurts averages 8.5 yards per attempt, 7.3 air yards per attempt and a 4.7% pass touchdown rate.
- Week 8 was the time Hurts didn’t have at least nine rushing attempts.
- Hurts has been blitzed at a more than 40% rate in each of the last three games.
- The Texans haven’t blitzed at a more than 30% rate in any game this season.
- The Texans run zone coverage at a high rate. Their primary coverage is cover two.
- Hurts averages 7.8 yards per attempt against cover two this season.
- The primary target has been WR A.J. Brown, who has six targets on 25 routes against cover two.
- The three players running more than 80% of the routes on the season are Brown, WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert.
- All three players are averaging more than 1.7 yards per route run.
- WRs Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal occasionally work in when Browns and Smith need a rest.
- Against zone coverage, it’s close to an even target share between Smith, Brown and Goedert.
- The Texans are giving up 1.9 yards per route run to outside wide receivers and teams have checked down to their running backs at a high rate.
- Brown and Smith frequently line up wide, with Brown out-targeting Smith by 21 out wide.
- RB Miles Sanders is the lead back with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott working in.
- The Texans are the worst run defense in the NFL.
- Sanders has one game with more than 20 carries this year, and only had nine attempts in Week 8.
- If the Texans stick to what they have done all season, Sanders will have plenty of room to make plays in the rushing game.
- The problem is Hurts leads the team in rushing attempts in the red zone and on the goal line.
- In garbage time last weekend, Scott saw touches over Gainwell.
Texans Offense vs. Eagles Defense
- Houston QB Davis Mills averages 6.4 yards per attempt, 7.0 air yards per attempt and a 3.4% pass touchdown rate.
- The Eagles are a zone-heavy scheme and blitz at a low rate.
- When he’s not blitzed, Mills averages 5.9 yards per attempt, ranking in the bottom five of starting quarterbacks.
- Against zone coverage, Mills averages 6.4 yards per attempt, ranking in the bottom five of starting quarterbacks.
- The Eagles haven’t allowed more than 250 yards passing in a game this season.
- The Texans will be without Brandin Cooks.
- Cooks is the only Texans' player with a more than 20% target share against man coverage, zone coverage and the blitz.
- The other two WRs who will run enough routes to be relevant are Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore.
- WR Tyron Johnson is also likely to see an increase in routes.
- The Eagles have struggled against tight ends this season.
- The Texans have three tight ends that see routes in their offense between Brevin Jordan, OJ Howard and Jordan Akins.
- Howard leads the team in routes from the tight end position and has the most production from it.
- In the running back room, Dameon Pierce, Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale all run routes.
- Burkhead leads the group in targets, but in recent weeks, Pierce has taken the primary pass-catching role.
- The Eagles have struggled against the run giving up 4.9 yards per carry.
- Pierce averages 4.5 yards per carry and has the majority of the red zone work.
Eagles vs. Texans DFS Overall Thoughts
The Texans can keep this close by leading into their running game with Dameon Pierce. The Eagles haven’t had the strongest run defense in the NFL, so it's the area of the field Houston needs to win. This opens the door for play-action passes to the tight ends, as they have been the weakest point of the Eagles' defense all season. However, the Eagles' offense will be difficult to stop, especially in the first half where they've scored 19 touchdowns this season. That is five more than any other team. They have also played one less game than most teams in the league.
The Eagles' run game is the key to the slate, and it will be the spot where the majority of points come from in this game. Sanders is well-rested after only having nine attempts in the previous week, but Hurts has been the leading red zone rusher. In the passing game, the Texans' coverage attempts to take away the big plays, and they haven’t shown any signs of stopping the run game.
Eagles vs. Texans DFS Multiplier Pool
- QB Jalen Hurts
- RB Miles Sanders
- RB Dameon Pierce
Eagles vs. Texans DFS FLEX Pool
- WR A.J. Brown
- QB Davis Mills
- WR DeVonta Smith
- TE Dallas Goedert
- RB Kenneth Gainwell
- K Jake Elliott
- RB Rex Burkhead
- K Ka’imi Fairbairn
- RB Boston Scott
- TE OJ Howard
- WR Phillip Dorsett
- TE Brevin Jordan
- TE Jordan Akins
- WR Tyron Johnson
WATCH MORE: A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith in DFS?
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