Analysis
12/28/22
9 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Cowboys vs. Titans
Cowboys (11-4) at Titans (7-8)
Opening Spread: Titans +9.5
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Titans (16.5) Cowboys (26)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
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The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans +9.5
- This line has moved to Titans +10.5
- This total opened 42.5 points
- This total has moved down to 40.5 points
Notable Injuries
Titans: Out: QB Ryan Tannehill. Doubtful: RB Derrick Henry. Questionable: LG Aaron Brewer, RT Nicholas Petit-Frere, DL Jeffery Simmons, DL Denico Autry, Edge Bud Dupree, LB Zach Cunningham, CB Kristian Fulton, S Amani Hooker.
Cowboys: Questionable: RB Tony Pollard, Edge DeMarcus Lawrence, LB Leighton Vander-Esch, LB Micah Parsons, S Jayron Kearse.
Titans Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
I have the Titans ranked as a bottom-tier offensive line. I have the Cowboys as a borderline top-five defensive front. Dallas has a potentially game-derailing trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 8-6-1 against the spread this season
- Tennessee is 5-10 on overs this season
- Malik Willis is 4-3-1 against the spread in his career
- Willis is 2-6 on overs in his career
- Mike Vrabel is 41-37-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Vrabel is 43-36-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Titans Offense
- Tennessee is scoring 17.9 points per game, which is 27th in the league
- The Titans are 29th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing
- Tennessee is passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Willis is set to make his fourth start this season. Willis has dynamic rushing ability, but he’s failed to breach 100 yards passing in any of his starts
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is second in the league in yards rushing with 1,429, and he’s second in rushing touchdowns with 13. Henry is eighth among running backs in yards receiving
- Since this contest has no bearing on the Titans' ability to make the playoffs, Henry could miss this contest
- If Henry sits, Hassan Haskins is positioned to be the primary ball carrier with Julius Chestnut mixing in
- Treylon Burks returned to action last week, seeing only two targets during the Titans' loss to the Texans
- Robert Woods has breached 50 yards receiving twice in his 15 games this season
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has breached 50 yards receiving three times in his 13 games this season
- Westbrook-Ikhine has been held below five yards receiving in four contests
- After seeing at least five targets and 35 yards receiving or more in four straight games, Chigoziem Okonkwo had one catch on two targets last week
- Per TruMedia, Burks has played 223 snaps on the perimeter and 52 in the slot
- Woods has played 468 snaps on the perimeter and 184 in the slot
- Westbrook-Ikhine has played 348 snaps on the perimeter and 308 in the slot
Cowboys Defense
- Dallas has allowed 20.2 points per game, which is sixth in the league
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing per game and the 27th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Dallas has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Cowboys have given up the third-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
- Dallas has allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
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Cowboys Offense vs. Titans Defense
I have the Cowboys tiered as a top-10 offensive line. I have the Titans' defensive front tiered as a top-ten unit. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where neither side has a notable advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 9-6 against the spread this season
- Dallas is 9-6 on overs this season
- Dak Prescott is 53-39-3 against the spread in his career
- Prescott is 48-47 on overs in his career
- Mike McCarthy is 139-108-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- McCarthy is 139-111-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Cowboys Offense
- Dallas is scoring 28.9 points per game, which is third in the league
- The Cowboys are 20th in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Cowboys are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of their plays
- Per the Edge, Tony Pollard is ninth in the league in yards rushing with 988. Pollard is 10th among running backs in yards receiving
- Ezekiel Elliott is 17th in the league in yards rushing with 829, and he’s tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns with 11
- CeeDee Lamb is sixth in the league in receptions (91), eighth in yards receiving (1,207), fifth in receiving touchdowns (8), eighth in target share (29%), and 13th in air yards share (36.7%)
- Michael Gallup has six or more targets in four of his last five games
- After a Week 15 spike game against the Jaguars, Noah Brown saw only two targets last week
- Dalton Schultz has four or more targets in every game he’s played with Prescott
- Per TruMedia, CeeDee Lamb has played 415 snaps on the perimeter and 429 in the slot
- Michael Gallup has played 553 snaps on the perimeter and 36 in the slot
- Noah Brown has played 376 snaps on the perimeter and 322 in the slot
- Dalton Schultz has played 444 snaps as an inline tight end, 54 on the perimeter and 160 in the slot
Titans Defense
- Tennessee has allowed 20.8 points per game, which is 11th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the 13th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Tennessee has given up the third-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Titans have given up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth-most to those in the slot.
- Tennessee has allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On
There is considerable concern the Titans will rest various players this week, as this contest has no bearing on Tennessee’s playoff status. Regardless of this week's outcome, the Titans will face the Jaguars in the season finale with the division on the line. Another abnormal wrinkle in this contest is both Tennessee and Dallas have already played on Thursday night this season.
If You’re Betting on the Titans
Ryan Tannehill is out, and it would be no surprise if Henry were held out of this contest. Any bet on the Titans is built around their defense playing well against a strong opponent. The Titans have lost five straight, but they have held three of those opponents to 20 points or less. Two of those outputs came against Joe Burrow’s Bengals and Justin Herbert’s Chargers. Mike Vrabel’s defense has the capacity to keep the Cowboys offense in that relative range. You have two core concerns as a Titans bettor. The first is that Tennessee holds out multiple starters on offense and defense, giving Dallas a tremendous talent advantage in this matchup.
The second is that if Tannehill is out and the Titans keep Henry sidelined, the offense is almost entirely on Willis’s shoulders. Willis is a dynamic athlete with a fascinating ceiling as a prospect, but through three starts, he has simply not been an NFL-caliber passer to this point. Leaning on a Haskins-led running game, with a developmental quarterback like Willis against a highly-talented Cowboys defense gives this Titans offense a limited ceiling with a floor of zero.
If You’re Betting on the Cowboys
Dallas has a better roster than the Titans, even without Tennessee holding out any starters. Offensively Prescott draws a Titans defense that has been shredded through the air all season. The strength of the Titans' defense is their front, and the Cowboys' offensive line is well-positioned to mitigate that group. If you’re betting on Dallas, you expect their offense to at least meet expectations. In Willis’s three starts this season, the Titans have leaned heavily on Henry. If Henry sits out this contest, Willis faces a Dallas defense with a significant trench advantage and a secondary capable of shutting down Tennessee’s very average group of pass catchers.
If you’re betting on Dallas, the Cowboys' defense could realistically hold the Titans' offense near, if not below, 10 points. The Cowboys’ defense has played three subpar games in a row, making this a potential get-right spot for that group. Your primary concern as a Cowboys bettor is that they play down on the road in a short week against a tough, physical Titans team.
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons is a Defensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I plan to play the Cowboys in all of my winner pools this week. I expect to be right in line with consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: Cowboys -10.5 is a good line for this contest, with the expectation that the Titans will at least hold out some key players this week. If Derrick Henry is officially ruled out, I’d lean Cowboys in pick-every-game-spread pools, but I will not bet this game directly at Cowboys -10.5.
Survivor Pool: You should have already used the Cowboys in survivor pools this week, but if you haven’t, they are a reasonable option this late in the season.
Ryan’s Recent betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
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