Betting
1/12/23
6 min read
Wild Card Underdog High/Low Picks: 49ers' Top Producers Good Picks vs. Seahawks
Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline 11 Wild-Card Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend's games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.
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Tom Brady HIGHER than 42.5 Pass Attempts - Josh Larky
- Tampa Bay's path to victory comes through the passing game, not the running game.
- Tampa averages the fewest yards per carry in the entire NFL.
- Let's remove Week 18 since Brady played only played one half.
- He had at least 42 pass attempts in 13 of 14 games prior to Week 18.
- Brady averaged 47 attempts per game over that 14-game span, via The Edge.
Brock Purdy HIGHER than 15.95 Fantasy Points - Ben Wolby
- Purdy has more than 15.95 fantasy points in every game he’s started for the 49ers.
- Quarterbacks have averaged 16 fantasy points per game against the Seahawks this year.
- Purdy’s offense has far too much talent to not top this number, as San Francisco leads the NFL in offensive points scored since his takeover in Week 14.
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Rachaad White LOWER than 38.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky
- White has been HIGHER than this number in just three of 17 games.
- Two of those three games were against Seattle and Cleveland, two of the NFL’s absolute worst run defenses.
- White has topped this number just once in the past six weeks.
- It's likely that the team leans more heavily on Leonard Fournette, given his playoff experience.
- Fournette played just three snaps last week and had one touch. The Buccaneers are resting him for Monday night's game against Dallas.
- Dallas is the fifth-best run defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.
Mike Gesicki HIGHER than 17.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby
- Gesicki ran at least 20 routes in back-to-back games for the first time since Week 12, and he has topped this number in three straight.
- Gesicki has been most productive this season with Skylar Thompson at QB. His 2022 statistics with each QB are shown below, courtesy of TruMedia.
| Passer | Routes | Targets (Rec) | Targets per Route Run | Receiving Yards | Target Share |
| S. Thompson | 77 | 12 (7) | 15.6% | 98 | 12.00% |
| T. Bridgewater | 57 | 9 (7) | 15.8% | 67 | 12.00% |
| T. Tagovailoa | 212 | 31 (18) | 14.6% | 197 | 8.00% |
- In both of Skylar Thompson’s starts this year (Weeks 6 and 18), Gesicki has topped this number.
- The Bills are solid against the TE position, but it’s a low enough total that it shouldn’t matter. They’ve allowed the 12th-most receptions to the position in the regular season, and Gesicki should see an uptick in targets given his QB situation.
Trenton Irwin HIGHER than 5.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky
- Irwin has taken snaps in nine games this year.
- He has at least five receiving yards in every game, with eight of nine being at least 12 receiving yards.
Travis Etienne HIGHER than 77.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky
- Etienne has at least 83 rushing yards in six of 11 games since being named the starter.
- He left after five snaps in the Baltimore game, then faced the Titans' elite run defense twice in that span.
- So you *could* say he’s hit this number in six of eight realistic games.
- The Chargers allow a league-high 5.6 YPC to RBs, via The Edge.
George Kittle HIGHER than 3.5 Receptions - Ben Wolby
- He has topped this in all of the games Brock Purdy has started.
- Seattle is the worst team in the NFL at guarding TEs.
- Seattle allowed the second-most receiving yards to TEs overall.
- Kittle should be a big part of the 49ers' gameplan.
- Seattle runs the second-highest amount of zone defense in the NFL.
- Kittle's targets per route run rate goes from 16% against man coverage to 20% against zone coverage, via The Edge.
Christian McCaffrey LOWER than 16.5 Rushing Attempts + Elijah Mitchell HIGHER than 38.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky
- Pair these heavily correlated lines together on Underdog.
- McCaffrey has fewer than 16.5 rush attempts in 12 of 17 games.
- In four games where McCaffrey and Mitchell have overlapped this year, McCaffrey has 14 or fewer carries in all of them.
- Mitchell has at least 41 rushing yards in four of five games.
- He was LOWER than 38.5 rushing yards against the Saints, when he was hurt after seven carries and 35 yards (5.0 YPC).
- The Seahawks allow 4.7 yards per carry to RBs, ninth-most in the NFL, via The Edge.
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Tyler Boyd HIGHER than 35.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby
- In games where Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins start, Tyler Boyd averages just below 60 yards per game.
- The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most yards to WR through the regular season, per The Edge.
- Boyd had 51 yards last week against the Ravens.
Keenan Allen HIGHER than 76.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky
- Since returning from injury in Week 11, Allen’s played eight games.
- He has at least 86 receiving yards in six of those eight.
- Mike Williams is questionable (back), and if he even plays, he’s likely not 100%.
- The Jaguars allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the slot during the regular season, via The Edge, so Allen has a plus matchup.
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We hope you enjoyed reading through these Wild Card Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.
WATCH: Matchups to Target in Sunday Wild-Card Games
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