Analysis

9/5/23

6 min read

Fantasy Football: 2023 NFL Week 1 Projections Have Surprise QB1

By Ben Wolbransky

Week 1 is so close you can taste it. I spent the offseason building a projection model using machine learning to better formulate opinions about which players to start in fantasy in a given week.

The 2023 NFL season is sure to bring many surprises, and as we learn what's new, these weekly projections will adjust accordingly. 

Quarterbacks

Team Player Att Comp Yds TDs Rush Rush Yds Rush TDs FFPTs Rank
Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson 30 20 215 2.0 10 65 0.5 26.0 1
Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 41 27 318 2.3 3 18 0.1 25.1 2
Buffalo Bills Josh Allen 34 22 255 2.1 7 41 0.3 24.8 3
Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts 31 20 242 1.5 10 45 0.6 23.9 4
Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert 40 27 292 2.5 4 10 0.1 22.9 5
Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow 37 25 283 2.1 4 15 0.2 22.6 6
Chicago Bears Justin Fields 30 19 209 1.5 8 55 0.4 22.4 7
Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence 38 25 274 1.9 3 15 0.3 22.2 8
New York Giants Daniel Jones 32 21 221 1.4 7 43 0.5 21.5 9
Denver Broncos Russell Wilson 34 22 249 1.9 4 22 0.2 21.2 10
Seattle Seahawks Geno Smith 35 23 252 2.0 5 25 0.1 21.2 11
Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson 32 21 233 1.6 6 35 0.3 20.9 12
Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa 35 23 272 2.1 2 6 0.1 20.6 13
Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins 36 24 249 2.3 1 4 0.2 20.5 14
Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott 36 24 254 2.0 2 10 0.2 20.4 15
Detroit Lions Jared Goff 38 24 284 1.8 2 6 0.1 19.5 16
New York Jets Aaron Rodgers 35 24 261 1.9 2 5 0.1 18.9 17
Indianapolis Colts Anthony Richardson 27 16 172 1.2 6 44 0.3 18.2 18
Los Angeles Rams Matthew Stafford 35 23 252 1.8 3 2 0.1 17.9 19
Green Bay Packers Jordan Love 31 20 228 1.5 2 12 0.2 17.4 20
New Orleans Saints Derek Carr 33 20 239 1.7 1 6 0.1 17.4 21
Pittsburgh Steelers Kenny Pickett 32 20 230 1.3 4 17 0.2 17.4 22
Las Vegas Raiders Jimmy Garoppolo 34 22 245 1.5 3 9 0.1 17.3 23
Washington Commanders Sam Howell 29 17 206 1.4 4 25 0.1 17.3 24
San Francisco 49ers Brock Purdy 30 21 231 1.4 2 3 0.1 16.1 25
Houston Texans CJ Stroud 32 20 212 1.3 3 17 0.1 16.0 26
Atlanta Falcons Desmond Ridder 28 18 188 1.3 4 20 0.2 15.9 27
New England Patriots Mac Jones 30 20 210 1.5 4 9 0.1 15.8 28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baker Mayfield 32 18 206 1.6 2 7 0.1 15.8 29
Tennessee Titans Ryan Tannehill 28 18 213 1.3 2 6 0.1 15.3 30
Carolina Panthers Bryce Young 32 20 210 1.2 2 13 0.1 15.3 31
Arizona Cardinals Clayton Tune 31 18 193 0.9 1 4 0.1 12.6 32

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have the highest team total in what is projected to be a shootout for opening night. Patrick Mahomes had originally been ranked as the QB1, but given TE Travis Kelce’s status (doubtful), he falls just behind Lamar Jackson.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert is the projected QB5. He led all active quarterbacks in attempts per game last season. Now with a completely healthy wide receiver core, the Los Angeles Chargers have the second-highest implied team total for Week 1. 

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Justin Fields is projected for 30 attempts, more than he had in any game in 2022. Reports say the Chicago Bears are hoping to pass more in 2023.

Wide Receivers 

Name Targ. Rcpt. Rec. Yds Rec. TDs FFPTS Rank
Justin Jefferson 11 8 102 0.8 19.4 1
Amon-Ra St. Brown 12 8 94 0.7 18.7 2
Tyreek Hill 11 7 100 0.6 17.8 3
Ja'Marr Chase 10 7 95 0.7 17.8 4
CeeDee Lamb 10 7 89 0.7 17.1 5
Chris Olave 10 7 92 0.6 16.0 6
Stefon Diggs 10 7 85 0.6 15.6 7
Jaylen Waddle 9 6 88 0.5 15.3 8
Calvin Ridley 10 7 87 0.5 15.3 9
A.J. Brown 9 6 85 0.6 14.7 10
DK Metcalf 9 6 76 0.6 14.3 11
Garrett Wilson 9 6 75 0.6 14.2 12
Keenan Allen 9 6 73 0.6 14.0 13
Davante Adams 9 5 72 0.6 14.0 14
Christian Watson 8 5 66 0.6 13.4 15
Amari Cooper 8 5 71 0.6 13.4 16
Terry McLaurin 8 5 68 0.5 12.7 17
Skyy Moore 8 5 66 0.5 12.6 18
Chris Godwin 9 5 58 0.5 12.4 19
Christian Kirk 8 6 63 0.5 12.3 20
Van Jefferson 9 6 64 0.5 12.2 21
DJ Moore 8 5 67 0.4 11.9 22
DeAndre Hopkins 8 5 64 0.5 11.9 23
DeVonta Smith 8 5 67 0.4 11.8 24
Mike Evans 8 5 59 0.6 11.8 25
Tyler Lockett 8 5 59 0.6 11.8 26
Tee Higgins 8 5 68 0.4 11.6 27
Drake London 8 5 63 0.5 11.6 28
Mike Williams 7 5 61 0.5 11.5 29
Jahan Dotson 7 5 52 0.4 11.5 30
Courtland Sutton 9 5 62 0.4 11.1 31
Diontae Johnson 8 5 62 0.3 11.0 32
Deebo Samuel 7 4 48 0.3 10.8 33
Michael Pittman Jr. 7 4 57 0.3 10.8 34
Gabe Davis 7 4 59 0.4 10.4 35
Marquise Brown 8 5 58 0.3 10.1 36
Treylon Burks 7 4 51 0.4 10.0 37
Brandon Aiyuk 6 4 48 0.4 9.8 38
George Pickens 6 4 52 0.3 9.7 39
Nico Collins 7 4 58 0.3 9.5 40
Elijah Moore 6 4 58 0.2 9.5 41
Michael Thomas 8 5 53 0.2 9.1 42
Zay Jones 7 4 44 0.3 9.1 43
Brandin Cooks 6 4 43 0.3 8.5 44
Jordan Addison 6 4 43 0.4 8.3 45
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6 4 46 0.3 8.3 46
JuJu Smith-Schuster 6 4 44 0.3 8.2 47
Allen Lazard 5 3 42 0.3 8.2 48
Quentin Johnston 6 4 48 0.2 8.1 49
Jakobi Meyers 5 3 43 0.2 7.9 50
Tyler Boyd 5 4 42 0.3 7.8 51
Rashod Bateman 5 3 44 0.3 7.8 52
Adam Thielen 5 4 41 0.3 7.6 53
Donovan Peoples-Jones 6 4 44 0.2 7.5 54
Romeo Doubs 5 3 35 0.4 7.3 55
Odell Beckham Jr. 5 3 37 0.3 7.2 56
Alec Pierce 5 3 42 0.2 7.0 57
Zay Flowers 5 3 37 0.2 6.8 58
Michael Gallup 5 3 37 0.3 6.7 59
Darnell Mooney 5 3 38 0.2 6.7 60
Rashid Shaheed 4 2 33 0.2 6.6 61
Jayden Reed 5 4 46 0.0 6.6 62
Isaiah Hodgins 4 3 34 0.3 6.5 63
Robert Woods 6 3 34 0.2 6.5 64
Marvin Mims Jr. 5 3 31 0.3 6.3 65
Jonathan Mingo 4 3 35 0.2 6.2 66
Darius Slayton 4 3 35 0.2 6.1 67
Josh Reynolds 5 3 36 0.2 6.1 68
John Metchie III 4 3 34 0.2 6.1 69
DJ Chark 4 3 34 0.2 5.9 70
Kendrick Bourne 3 2 24 0.2 5.9 71
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 4 2 29 0.3 5.8 72
DeVante Parker 4 2 33 0.2 5.7 73
K.J. Osborn 4 2 21 0.3 5.5 74
Ben Skowronek 4 2 29 0.2 5.4 75
Tyquan Thornton 2 1 25 0.2 5.1 76
Rondale Moore 4 2 26 0.1 4.9 77
Mecole Hardman Jr. 3 2 22 0.2 4.8 78
Puka Nacua 4 2 26 0.2 4.8 79
Chase Claypool 3 2 22 0.2 4.8 80

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

My model projected the Detroit Lions as the fifth-highest-scoring offense in 2023. With Jameson Williams suspended, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected to lead all wide receivers in targets in Week 1 with 12, finishing just behind Justin Jefferson in fantasy points.

Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams

With Cooper Kupp sidelined due to a hamstring injury, Van Jefferson’s target share skyrockets about 10 percent, putting him with nine targets and 12.2 fantasy points, finishing as the WR20. 

Dynamic Duos

The Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill (WR3) and Jaylen Waddle (WR8) are expected to finish in the top 12.

The Jacksonville Jaguars' Calvin Ridley (WR9) and Christian Kirk (WR19) are expected to finish in the top 24.

The Philadelphia Eagles' A.J. Brown (WR10) and DaVonte Smith (WR23) are expected to finish in the top 24.

Running Backs

Name Rushes Rush Yards Rush TDs Targ. Rcpt. Rec. Yds Rec. TDs FFPTS Rank
Christian McCaffrey 16 73 0.6 6 4 36 0.3 18.1 1
Bijan Robinson 15 75 0.7 4 3 27 0.3 17.8 2
Austin Ekeler 13 56 0.7 7 5 33 0.3 17.4 3
Derrick Henry 21 88 0.7 3 3 24 0.1 17.4 4
Saquon Barkley 19 84 0.7 4 3 22 0.2 16.9 5
Nick Chubb 17 78 0.8 3 2 16 0.1 15.6 6
Tony Pollard 13 60 0.3 5 3 32 0.3 14.4 7
Rhamondre Stevenson 13 61 0.3 6 4 32 0.1 13.8 8
J.K. Dobbins 11 62 0.6 4 3 20 0.1 13.4 9
David Montgomery 13 52 0.6 4 3 27 0.1 13.4 10
Najee Harris 15 61 0.6 3 2 15 0.1 13.3 11
Josh Jacobs 16 66 0.6 3 2 18 0.0 13.2 12
Kenneth Walker III 13 55 0.9 2 2 15 0.0 13.1 13
Travis Etienne 13 53 0.5 4 3 24 0.2 13.1 14
Cam Akers 11 48 0.6 3 3 22 0.2 12.9 15
Joe Mixon 13 51 0.4 5 4 27 0.1 12.9 16
Javonte Williams 12 50 0.5 4 3 25 0.2 12.9 17
James Conner 14 57 0.4 5 3 22 0.1 12.8 18
Aaron Jones 14 60 0.3 5 3 24 0.2 12.7 19
Jahmyr Gibbs 9 38 0.4 5 4 35 0.2 12.7 20
Alexander Mattison 15 64 0.5 3 2 13 0.1 12.6 21
Isiah Pacheco 10 45 0.3 5 3 32 0.2 12.6 22
Breece Hall 10 50 0.3 4 3 30 0.2 12.6 23
Rachaad White 13 49 0.4 5 3 25 0.2 12.5 24
Dameon Pierce 14 59 0.5 4 2 21 0.1 12.4 25
Jamaal Williams 16 65 0.5 3 2 15 0.1 12.2 26
Samaje Perine 10 42 0.3 5 4 30 0.1 12.0 27
Brian Robinson Jr. 15 60 0.6 2 1 12 0.1 12.0 28
Antonio Gibson 10 38 0.4 4 3 27 0.3 11.8 29
James Cook 8 40 0.2 4 3 33 0.2 11.3 30
A.J. Dillon 11 46 0.6 2 2 13 0.1 10.7 31
Miles Sanders 15 67 0.5 2 1 4 0.0 10.6 32
Khalil Herbert 11 54 0.4 2 1 12 0.0 9.6 33
Raheem Mostert 9 44 0.3 3 2 17 0.1 9.3 34
Dalvin Cook 10 45 0.3 3 2 11 0.1 9.1 35
D'Andre Swift 7 33 0.2 3 2 21 0.2 8.6 36
Ezekiel Elliott 10 39 0.4 2 1 12 0.0 8.6 37
Devin Singletary 8 37 0.2 3 2 18 0.1 8.6 38
Zack Moss 10 46 0.3 1 1 7 0.0 7.9 39
Rashaad Penny 12 50 0.4 1 1 3 0.0 7.8 40
Tyler Allgeier 10 46 0.3 1 1 7 0.0 7.8 41
Damien Harris 8 37 0.4 1 1 10 0.0 7.7 42
Jerick McKinnon 3 12 0.2 4 3 23 0.2 7.6 43
Elijah Mitchell 8 42 0.3 1 1 8 0.0 7.2 44
Jeff Wilson Jr. 8 41 0.1 2 1 8 0.2 7.1 45
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5 19 0.2 3 2 21 0.2 7.1 46
Jaylen Warren 10 40 0.2 2 1 10 0.0 7.0 47
Deon Jackson 8 30 0.3 2 2 13 0.0 6.9 48
Chuba Hubbard 6 30 0.2 2 2 15 0.0 6.7 49
Evan Hull 8 32 0.3 2 1 9 0.0 6.6 50
Pierre Strong Jr. 6 23 0.1 3 2 17 0.1 6.6 51
Devon Achane 7 32 0.1 2 2 13 0.1 6.6 52
Tank Bigsby 7 30 0.2 2 1 11 0.1 6.5 53
Roschon Johnson 7 31 0.2 2 2 13 0.0 6.4 54
Chris Evans 4 18 0.2 2 2 20 0.1 6.2 55
Kyren Williams 6 25 0.1 2 2 15 0.1 5.9 56
Ty Chandler 6 23 0.1 3 2 12 0.1 5.8 57
Sean Tucker 5 21 0.1 2 1 10 0.1 4.8 58
Kenneth Gainwell 3 14 0.1 2 2 13 0.1 4.8 59
Zach Charbonnet 7 0 0.2 3 2 18 0.1 4.8 60
Keaontay Ingram 8 32 0.2 0 0 2 0.0 4.7 61

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson figures to have a heavy workload for the Atlanta Falcons given his draft capital. He is projected as the RB2 for Week 1.

Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery

This is the only duo with both ball carriers projected in the top 24. Jahmyr Gibbs is projected for receiving work (four receptions, eight rushes), while David Montgomery is projected for rushing work (two receptions, 13 rushes). Montgomery’s rushing role is expected to look similar to Jamaal Williams’ last season.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs is projected for the sixth-most running back touches in Week 1 but still is expected to finish outside of the top 12 due to inefficiency. The season-long projections have him finishing outside the top 12 running backs given his 2022 usage and the dropoff that happens the next season.

Tight Ends

Name Targ. Rcpt. Rec. Yds Rec. TDs FFPTS Rank
T.J. Hockenson 9 6 56 0.6 12.5 1
Mark Andrews 7 5 58 0.7 12.3 2
Tyler Higbee 8 6 62 0.3 10.9 3
Kyle Pitts 7 5 57 0.4 10.5 4
Darren Waller 7 5 56 0.3 9.8 5
George Kittle 6 4 56 0.3 9.4 6
Pat Freiermuth 6 4 47 0.4 9.3 7
Greg Dulcich 6 4 45 0.5 9.1 8
Evan Engram 7 5 41 0.4 8.9 9
David Njoku 6 4 38 0.4 8.1 10
Noah Gray 6 4 47 0.1 7.4 11
Dallas Goedert 6 3 43 0.2 7.3 12
Juwan Johnson 5 3 37 0.3 7.3 13
Dalton Schultz 6 3 35 0.3 7.2 14
Sam LaPorta 5 3 35 0.3 7.1 15
Taysom Hill 2 1 13 0.2 6.8 16
Tyler Conklin 5 4 38 0.2 6.6 17
Gerald Everett 5 3 35 0.2 6.5 18
Cole Kmet 5 3 27 0.4 6.4 19
Dalton Kincaid 4 3 36 0.2 6.4 20
Noah Fant 5 3 30 0.3 6.2 21
Dawson Knox 3 2 24 0.4 6.1 22
Chigoziem Okonkwo 5 3 33 0.2 6.0 23
Hayden Hurst 5 3 32 0.2 5.9 24
Hunter Henry 4 2 29 0.3 5.7 25
Jake Ferguson 5 3 24 0.3 5.6 26
Michael Mayer 4 3 29 0.2 5.3 27
Cade Otton 5 3 27 0.2 5.2 28
Luke Musgrave 4 3 28 0.1 4.9 29
Austin Hooper 4 2 25 0.1 4.4 30
Zach Ertz 4 2 26 0.1 4.4 31

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Like Jefferson, Tyler Higbee’s usage is expected to skyrocket 10 percent with Kupp out for the Rams. Higbee projects as the TE4 with eight targets.

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

Greg Dulcich projects as the TE9 and to have six targets for the Denver Broncos with WR Jerry Jeudy expected to miss Week 1.

Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs

Originally ranked outside the top 30, Noah Gray’s projection skyrockets with three increased targets because Kelce likely will miss Week 1.

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Ben Wolbransky

Ben Wolbransky is a data scientist with a passion for sports analytics. Wolbransky is also a featured writer for BettingPros.

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