Analysis
9/14/23
10 min read
NFL Week 2 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Josh Allen Rush Yard Prop
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our free Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll also link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that might have another betting pick.
T.J. Hockenson OVER 4.5 Receptions
Best Odds: -122 on FanDuel
T.J. Hockenson has played at least 50 percent of the snaps in 10 games for the Minnesota Vikings and has at least five receptions in eight of those 10 games.
The Philadelphia Eagles generally have been a softer defense against tight ends, as they invest more in the defensive line than the linebackers.
In Week 1, Hunter Henry had five catches vs. the Eagles, and Mike Gesicki added three more. Hockenson had eight receptions in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Bet by: Larky, Vanek
Note: This has moved to -190 odds on most books and should not be taken at that current price. Make sure to join our free Discord to get alerts whenever we make an official play.
Travis Etienne 75+ Rushing Yards
Best Odds: +215 on DraftKings
Travis Etienne has reached 75 rushing yards in eight of his past 13 games (62 percent). However, +215 implies we only need a 32 percent chance of this hitting to break even long-term. For fantasy football, Tank Bigsby was annoying involved, handling both of the team's goal line carries.
Still, Etienne had 18 carries to Bigsby's seven in Week 1 and carries near the goal line are low yards per carry attempts anyway. The Kansas City Chiefs defense gets DT Chris Jones back, but it had him all of last year, and still gave up 4.3 yards per carry to running backs (18th).
This is a roughly average matchup for Etienne. Rather than a straight bet on his 55.5 rushing yards line, we'd rather bet on a couple of longer runs at plus odds. Play this up to +175
Bet by: Larky
Josh Allen OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings, -110 on Bet365
This is already 37.5 yards on FanDuel and should continue to rise. Since 2021, Josh Allen has played 34 games, topping this number in 23 (68 percent). Play this up to 37.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky
Harrison Smith OVER 5.5 tackles + assists
Best Odds: +120 DraftKings
The Philadelphia Eagles allowed the 2nd most tackles/game to opposing safeties last season. Harrison Smith went over this total in 9 of 14 games played last year, one of which was a 13-tackle game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Harrison Smith's week 1 usage included 20 box snaps, seven snaps on the defensive line, and 19 in the slot. He only played 28 percent of his snaps deep.
Personally, only went 0.5 unit on this play and used DraftKings 50 percent TNF boost.
Bet by: Patrick H.
Jamaal Williams OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Jamaal Williams saw 18 carries in Week 1 but only had 45 yards last week against a high-end Titans defense. The Carolina Panthers run defense is more middle of the pack, and the New Orleans Saints are favored against a rebuilding, banged-up Panthers team. Backup RB Tony Jones only had one carry last week. This backfield belongs to Williams until Alvin Kamara comes back.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky, Wolby
Christian Kirk Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Kansas City Chiefs struggled against the slot last season, and Christian Kirk has a slot-heavy role. Kirk had 105 and 52 yards against the Chiefs last year. He also had 16 receptions on 26 targets in those games. The main concern is Kirk only saw 22 routes last week while Zay Jones had 29.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
James Cook Over 51.5 rushing yards
Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM
The rush attempts number is 12.5 on DraftKings. Last week, James Cook had 12 carries for 46 yards against a much better defense on the road. I thought he looked fast on opening night. The other Buffalo Bills running backs had just three total carries. The Bills are -9.5 favorites, in an obvious correction spot. The Las Vegas Raiders allowed the 11th most rushing yards to running backs last season. Our data scientist, Ben Wolby, has him at 66 rushing yards in his projections.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky, Wolby
Justin Herbert OVER 277.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings, -110 on Bet365
In 50 career games, Justin Herbert is over this number in 29 (58 percent). Last year, no team allowed more passing yards than the Titans (290 per game). In Week 1 of this year, they allowed Derek Carr to throw for 305 yards. Austin Ekeler probably misses this game, and we expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be very pass-heavy, given the Tennessee Titans are also a pass funnel defense with a good ability to stop the run. I'd play this up to 285.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Mike Williams 100+ Receiving Yards
Best Odds: +500 on Bet365, +450 on DraftKings
+500 implies a 16.7 percent chance, and +450 implies an 18 percent chance. Mike Williams has reached 100 yards in eight of 30 games (27 percent) since 2021, and as mentioned above, the Chargers have the perfect matchup in Week 2. I think this should be closer to +350 for more fair odds.
Bet by: Larky
Justin Fields OVER 169.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
This is 175.5 on DraftKings, for context. Justin Fields attempted 37 passes for 216 yards in Week 1, when his season-high from last year was only 28 attempts. We're also taking the alt passing line of Fields 200+ Passing Yards at +205 on FanDuel. Fields only topped 216 passing yards in one game last year, so even though DJ Moore didn't do much in Week 1, bringing him in, and having a healthy Darnell Mooney again, were both factors in his encouraging Week 1 for passing yardage.
Fields still looked like a generally bad passer who holds the ball too long in Week 1, but 169.5 yards is an incredibly low line for a quarterback, and getting 200+ passing yards at implied odds of hitting at about 33 percent is too good to pass up, as well. Fields faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who just gave up 344 passing yards on 44 attempts to Kirk Cousins. The Buccaneers also kept Alexander Mattison to 3.1 yards per carry, so they look, at least early on, like a potential pass funnel defense. We'd play this line up to 180 passing yards.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Courtland Sutton UNDER 49.5 RecYds
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Washington Commanders have an above-average pass defense, and the game total is just 39 points. Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is down at just 224.5 yards. Turning to Courtland Sutton, he’s been UNDER this number in 19 of 33 games since 2021 (58 percent). WR Jerry Jeudy was a full participant in practice yesterday, and in 23 games playing with Jeudy since 2021, Sutton is UNDER in 16 of 23 (70 percent).
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Geno Smith's Longest Rush over 8.5
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Detroit has allowed the most quarterback rushes of nine yards or more since 2022. Five of those rushes came from Fields, another four from Jalen Hurts, but three came from Geno Smith, who had an 11, 13, and 17-yard rush last season. Just last week, Patrick Mahomes had six rushes, and three of them were longer than this line.
As for Smith, he had nineteen, the seventh-most rushes of nine or more last season. He averages 14 yards per rush. Seattle's offensive line is banged up a good bit, but what does that mean for Smith? Getting pressured, rolling out, using his legs. My model has this at 67 percent probability of going over.
Bet by Wolby
Jimmy Garoppolo Pass Yds under 234.5
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 220 passing yards per game in 2022 and was helped out a TON in San Francisco. In games he started and finished, his receivers averaged 142 yards after the catch (YAC) per game, which ranked 3rd.
The San Francisco 49ers led the NFL in YAC per reception last year. Garoppolo’s passing yards weren’t earned – he got them from the YAC of Deebo Samuel (who led wide receivers in YAC/Reception) George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk.
Last week, the Raiders had 62 yards after the catch, the third-fewest in Week 1. Just 31 percent of Garoppolo's yards came from YAC. That's fewer than any game he had last year.
Buffalo's secondary is decent, definitely above average. Since Week 1 2022, they've allowed the 11th fewest YAC.
My model says about 63 percent under. It’ll be a sweat, but I’m taking it.
Bet by: Wolby
Daniel Jones' longest completion under 33.5
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Daniel Jones only had seven completions of 34+ yards last season (ranked 22nd).
In Week 1, Jones had no such completions. His longest attempt was an incomplete 27 air-yard pass to Darius Slayton, and his longest completion was just 24 yards. Jones simply isn't a gunslinger and the deep-ball threat Jalin Hyatt saw just one target.
Meanwhile, there just isn't a need to take deep shots against this defense. They were one of two teams not to allow a single 21+ air-yard attempt in Week 1 and only allowed nine (the fourth fewest) completions of 34+ in 2022. Jones will beat Arizona underneath and won’t need to air the ball out.
Bet by: Wolby
Julian Love OVER 5.5 tackles + assists
Best Odds: +105 Barstool, +100 Bet365, +100 MGM
Julian Love went over this total in 12 out of 16 last season with the New York Giants. In week 1, his first game with the Seattle Seahawks, he totaled nine tackles against the Los Angeles Rams, who ranked last just a season ago in tackles allowed to the safety position.
Love's opponent this week, the Detroit Lions, gave up the 12th-most tackles/game to safeties a season ago while allowing tackles to the position at a 4.7 percent rate higher than the league average. Last week, against the Lions, both starting safeties for the Chiefs went over this total with six tackles each. With Jamal Adams ruled out again, Love should see a similar alignment to week 1 where he played 40 percent of the snaps in the box, 15 percent in the slot and six percent on the defensive line. My model has this going over ~66 percent of the time so I'll gladly take the plus odds here.
Bet By: Patrick H
Jayron Kearse OVER 4.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: +105 on Barstool, +100 on DraftKings
Jayron Kearse went over this total in 10 out of 14 games played last season. In two of the games he missed, he played less than 80 percent of the snaps. He only played 76 percent of the snaps last week because the game was a blowout, as he wore the green dot in that game.
Donovan Wilson is also doubtful for this game further ensuring Kearse stays on the field. The New York Jets gave up tackles at a rate four percent higher than the league average last season. Zach Wilson made nine starts last season and at least one safety went over this total in eight of those games.
Last week, Zach Wilson played 93 percent of the game, and both Buffalo Bills starting safeties went over this number as well. My model has this going over about 75 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
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