Analysis

10/11/23

9 min read

2023 Fantasy Football Week 6 Projections: Jordan Addison Moves Up

By Ben Wolbransky

Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 6 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and projected rank.

Two or three write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.

Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. A great example of this was Puka Nacua after Week 1. In Week 2, the model projected him for a 30 percent target share, but the final step of the model is to regress him back to an average wide receiver until he proves Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. After doing it again in Week 2, Nacua was then projected as a top-five wide receiver.

Quarterbacks

Player Att. Comp. PsYds PsTD Rush RshYds RshTDs FFPTs Rank
Josh Allen 37 26 297 2.6 4 31 0.4 25.5 1
Patrick Mahomes 39 25 328 2.5 3 21 0.1 24.0 2
Tua Tagovailoa 35 25 317 2.7 2 8 0.1 23.4 3
Justin Herbert 38 26 295 2.3 3 11 0.1 20.6 4
Jalen Hurts 30 20 205 1.5 9 43 0.6 20.5 5
Justin Fields 31 20 221 1.4 8 33 0.7 20.3 6
Lamar Jackson 28 20 221 1.2 9 47 0.5 19.9 7
Trevor Lawrence 37 24 255 1.8 5 26 0.3 19.8 8
Matthew Stafford 38 23 292 2.3 2 1 0.1 19.2 9
Dak Prescott 34 23 250 1.9 2 6 0.3 18.1 10
Joe Burrow 36 23 254 2.1 2 6 0.2 18.0 11
Kirk Cousins 35 24 275 1.9 2 5 0.1 17.8 12
Jared Goff 36 25 262 1.7 2 4 0.1 16.5 13
Russell Wilson 32 21 208 1.7 4 24 0.1 16.2 14
Geno Smith 32 22 227 1.7 2 12 0.1 15.8 15
C.J. Stroud 36 22 233 1.5 3 15 0.1 15.5 16
Brock Purdy 30 21 231 1.8 2 2 0.1 15.5 17
Mac Jones 39 25 236 1.7 3 6 0.1 15.1 18
Desmond Ridder 31 20 219 1.4 3 13 0.2 15.1 19
Jimmy Garoppolo 30 21 208 1.7 3 9 0.1 15.0 20
Baker Mayfield 33 23 210 1.6 4 12 0.1 14.7 21
Joshua Dobbs 31 21 199 1.4 3 20 0.2 14.7 22
Daniel Jones 34 22 217 1.0 5 29 0.1 14.4 23
Sam Howell 31 21 194 1.2 3 21 0.2 14.2 24
Gardner Minshew 35 24 242 1.3 1 8 0.1 14.1 25
Bryce Young 37 23 221 1.3 2 12 0.1 13.7 26
Derek Carr 33 22 209 1.6 0 2 0.1 13.7 27
Deshaun Watson 34 21 187 1.2 3 16 0.2 13.0 28
Zach Wilson 29 19 174 1.2 2 8 0.1 11.7 29
Ryan Tannehill 29 18 167 1.1 2 5 0.1 10.9 30

Justin Herbert (QB4)

Only half a point per game behind Josh Allen, Justin Herbert finds himself scoring the second-most fantasy points per game at the quarterback position. The Dallas Cowboys have a notable defense; they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and totaled the third most interceptions (seven). Still, the caliber of quarterbacks this defense has faced is almost laughable: Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Josh Dobbs and Brock Purdy. Those five may have only combined for 59 fantasy points, but Herbert has been better than them all this season.

The Cowboys’ defense is allowing slightly above-average yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Herbert ranks sixth in yards per attempt (YPA) and has only thrown one interception. Given the matchup, the fact that Trevon Diggs is out for the season and the Chargers are returning from a bye week, Herbert has the potential to finish as this week's overall QB1.

Justin Fields (QB6)

There's a chance we can trust Justin Fields again. Fields found himself in back-to-back solid matchups and now faces a bottom-tier secondary in the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have been solid against rushing quarterbacks, holding opposing quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest yards per carry despite facing Jalen Hurts, Herbert and Bryce Young.

Fields will have to do it through the air this week – so I suppose it’s a good thing he is averaging the third most YPA over the past two weeks (9.6). This Minnesota secondary is among the worst in the NFL and allows 10 percent more yards per game than average. 

Joe Burrow (QB11)

After being drafted as a top-five quarterback, Joe Burrow finds himself as the QB25. He hasn’t been particularly great, but last week, he showed flashes of why he’s the second-highest-paid player in the NFL, finishing as the QB8. His success in Week 5 can be attributed to feeding (arguably) the league's best wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, who had a career-high 19 targets.

Burrow can be trusted in your fantasy lineups as long as Chase is force-fed the ball. The Seattle Seahawks don’t have a particularly notable pass defense, which means Chase and Burrow should be primed for another solid week.

Wide Receivers

Player Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR PPR Rank
Tyreek Hill 11 8 126 1.1 22.9 27.0 1
Stefon Diggs 11 8 103 0.8 18.9 23.0 2
Keenan Allen 13 8 103 0.6 18.0 22.1 3
Amon-Ra St. Brown 10 7 91 0.6 16.7 20.3 4
Cooper Kupp 11 7 93 0.6 16.3 19.9 5
Ja'Marr Chase 11 7 79 0.7 16.1 19.9 6
Davante Adams 10 7 77 0.5 14.6 18.0 7
A.J. Brown 9 6 82 0.5 14.5 17.6 8
CeeDee Lamb 7 5 78 0.5 14.4 17.1 9
Mike Evans 9 6 80 0.5 14.4 17.6 10
DJ Moore 9 6 81 0.5 13.8 16.6 11
Marquise Brown 9 6 67 0.7 13.7 16.6 12
Jaylen Waddle 8 5 72 0.7 13.7 16.3 13
Puka Nacua 10 7 77 0.4 13.6 16.9 14
Jordan Addison 8 5 74 0.5 12.9 15.5 15
DK Metcalf 7 5 71 0.5 12.6 15.0 16
Michael Pittman Jr. 10 7 68 0.3 12.6 15.9 17
Brandon Aiyuk 6 4 64 0.5 12.1 14.3 18
Nico Collins 8 5 72 0.4 11.9 14.5 19
Chris Olave 9 6 62 0.4 11.8 14.8 20
Christian Kirk 8 6 59 0.4 11.5 14.3 21
Chris Godwin 8 5 56 0.4 11.5 14.1 22
Deebo Samuel 7 5 59 0.3 11.4 13.7 23
Tyler Boyd 8 5 52 0.5 11.1 13.7 24
Calvin Ridley 7 5 62 0.4 11.0 13.2 25
Josh Downs 8 7 64 0.2 11.0 14.2 26
Jakobi Meyers 8 6 54 0.4 11.0 13.8 27
Garrett Wilson 9 5 56 0.4 10.8 13.4 28
Courtland Sutton 8 5 55 0.4 10.7 13.3 29
K.J. Osborn 7 5 56 0.4 10.7 13.0 30
Adam Thielen 9 6 60 0.3 10.6 13.4 31
DeAndre Hopkins 9 5 55 0.4 10.5 13.1 32
Gabe Davis 6 4 59 0.5 10.5 12.4 33
Josh Palmer 7 4 56 0.4 10.5 12.7 34
Tyler Lockett 8 5 51 0.5 10.4 12.9 35
DeVonta Smith 6 4 50 0.5 9.9 12.0 36
Amari Cooper 8 5 51 0.4 9.8 12.3 37
Kendrick Bourne 8 4 52 0.4 9.7 11.8 38
Drake London 6 4 53 0.4 9.3 11.3 39
Tank Dell 6 4 54 0.3 9.2 11.2 40
Robert Woods 8 5 50 0.3 9.2 11.7 41
Zay Flowers 6 5 51 0.3 9.1 11.3 42
Skyy Moore 5 3 45 0.3 9.0 10.6 43
Jerry Jeudy 6 4 42 0.4 8.5 10.4 44
Quentin Johnston 6 4 49 0.3 8.5 10.5 45
Elijah Moore 8 4 45 0.2 8.5 10.7 46
Terry McLaurin 6 4 46 0.2 8.1 10.2 47
Josh Reynolds 5 4 49 0.2 7.9 9.7 48
Michael Wilson 6 4 57 0.0 7.7 9.8 49
Tutu Atwell 5 3 34 0.3 7.4 8.9 50
Michael Thomas 5 4 34 0.3 7.1 8.9 51
Rashid Shaheed 4 3 37 0.2 7.0 8.4 52
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 6 3 34 0.3 6.9 8.6 53
Darius Slayton 5 3 40 0.2 6.8 8.4 54
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 4 34 0.2 6.6 8.4 55
DeVante Parker 5 3 32 0.3 6.6 8.1 56
Rondale Moore 4 2 23 0.2 6.6 7.8 57
Wan'Dale Robinson 6 4 34 0.2 6.5 8.5 58
Zay Jones 4 2 27 0.3 6.4 7.7 59
Curtis Samuel 5 3 36 0.2 6.3 8.0 60
Jahan Dotson 6 3 32 0.2 6.3 8.0 61
Rashee Rice 5 3 34 0.2 6.2 7.6 62
Jonathan Mingo 5 3 31 0.2 6.2 7.8 63
Michael Gallup 5 3 32 0.2 6.1 7.5 64
Allen Lazard 5 3 31 0.2 6.0 7.4 65
Darnell Mooney 5 3 32 0.2 6.0 7.4 66
Parris Campbell 5 3 27 0.1 5.4 6.9 67
Terrace Marshall Jr. 5 3 29 0.1 5.2 6.7 68
JuJu Smith-Schuster 5 3 21 0.3 5.2 6.6 69
DJ Chark 4 2 31 0.1 5.1 6.2 70
Mack Hollins 4 2 35 0.1 5.1 6.1 71

Marquise Brown (WR12)

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has quietly had a solid start to the season. Brown ranks 12th in team target share and 21st in fantasy points per game. He’s without a doubt been the Arizona Cardinals’ most prolific option through the air. With RB James Conner on IR, my model projects Brown for a slightly higher target share.

Arizona faces off against the Los Angeles Rams, who are allowing the fifth-most yards per reception and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Brown is a screaming buy, especially if this offense keeps rolling ahead of Kyler Murray’s return. 

Jordan Addison (WR15)

Justin Jefferson is heading to IR with a hamstring injury, and Jordan Addison looks to be the immediate beneficiary. Addison projects to be second in Minnesota targets during Jefferson’s absence, but he’s still projected to see a large uptick from 14.6 percent to 23 percent (T.J. Hockenson is projected for 24.2 percent). If Addison can seamlessly play all over the field, WR15 is way too low of a projection.

He was touted during the offseason as the second-best wide receiver in the NFL draft, and he has the opportunity to prove why. Addison’s WR15 projection is a baseline. I’d imagine he finishes with either a massive Week 6 or an absolutely disappointing one. Consider your risk factors, and start Addison accordingly. I’ll be starting him where I have him.

Christian Kirk (WR21), Calvin Ridley (WR25)

In the past four weeks, Christian Kirk has twice as many receptions per game (7.25) as Calvin Ridley (3.50). Even Evan Engram is seeing more targets and receptions than Ridley. Ridley has stayed afloat with his 15.1 yards per reception (16th among receivers with more than 10 receptions) and two touchdowns to Kirk’s one.

Still, until Ridley starts seeing a higher target share, Kirk will be my model’s favorite Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver. That’s not to say you should bench Ridley — he has weekly top-12 upside — but he’s more of a boom/bust WR2, whereas Kirk is a trusty WR2. 

Running Backs

Player Rushes RushYards RushTDs Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR PPR Rank
Christian McCaffrey 18 76 0.7 5 4 31 0.3 18.5 20.5 1
Bijan Robinson 14 75 0.6 5 4 29 0.3 17.7 19.6 2
Tony Pollard 17 72 0.6 4 3 22 0.3 16.2 17.9 3
Travis Etienne 18 70 0.6 4 3 21 0.1 14.9 16.5 4
Kyren Williams 16 60 0.7 4 2 22 0.2 14.9 16.1 5
Alvin Kamara 15 60 0.4 6 5 26 0.2 14.9 17.3 6
Kenneth Walker III 16 81 0.7 3 2 18 0.0 14.8 15.8 7
David Montgomery 19 74 0.7 3 2 15 0.1 14.7 15.7 8
Saquon Barkley 16 86 0.3 4 3 18 0.1 14.4 15.8 9
James Cook 14 73 0.2 4 3 30 0.2 14.0 15.6 10
Raheem Mostert 13 71 0.6 3 2 16 0.1 14.0 15.0 11
D'Andre Swift 14 75 0.4 3 3 17 0.1 13.7 15.1 12
Josh Jacobs 16 51 0.6 4 3 20 0.2 13.3 14.6 13
Derrick Henry 17 61 0.7 3 2 17 0.1 13.3 14.3 14
Isiah Pacheco 13 76 0.4 2 2 13 0.2 13.2 14.0 15
Breece Hall 16 69 0.5 3 2 16 0.1 13.2 14.2 16
Austin Ekeler 11 45 0.4 3 2 33 0.2 12.7 13.9 17
Joe Mixon 16 58 0.4 4 3 20 0.2 12.4 13.8 18
Jonathan Taylor 16 62 0.6 2 1 11 0.1 12.4 13.1 19
Rachaad White 17 52 0.4 4 3 21 0.1 12.4 13.9 20
Rhamondre Stevenson 14 67 0.2 4 3 24 0.1 12.3 13.7 21
Brian Robinson Jr. 18 62 0.5 2 2 14 0.1 12.2 13.0 22
Dameon Pierce 16 55 0.5 3 2 13 0.0 11.0 11.9 23
Tyler Allgeier 11 52 0.5 2 2 13 0.1 10.8 11.6 24
Alexander Mattison 12 43 0.5 4 2 16 0.1 10.5 11.7 25
Miles Sanders 13 43 0.4 5 3 12 0.1 10.3 11.9 26
Emari Demercado 13 56 0.6 1 0 2 0.0 9.5 9.8 27
Jerome Ford 13 44 0.3 3 2 14 0.1 9.3 10.3 28
Zack Moss 11 43 0.5 2 1 9 0.0 8.8 9.5 29
Roschon Johnson 11 40 0.5 2 1 7 0.1 8.7 9.4 30
Ezekiel Elliott 9 35 0.3 3 2 13 0.1 8.3 9.3 31
Cam Akers 8 30 0.2 4 3 18 0.1 8.1 9.5 32
Javonte Williams 8 32 0.2 3 2 15 0.2 8.0 9.0 33
Jeff Wilson Jr. 10 40 0.4 1 1 8 0.1 7.9 8.4 34
Justice Hill 8 30 0.5 2 1 10 0.0 7.6 8.3 35
Kenneth Gainwell 8 37 0.2 2 1 10 0.1 7.2 7.9 36
Tyjae Spears 6 25 0.2 4 3 18 0.0 7.1 8.4 37
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5 27 0.3 2 1 13 0.1 7.1 7.7 38
Gus Edwards 11 47 0.3 1 0 2 0.0 7.1 7.3 39
Chuba Hubbard 7 30 0.2 3 2 11 0.1 6.7 7.7 40
Zach Charbonnet 5 27 0.2 2 2 14 0.1 6.4 7.3 41
Samaje Perine 4 15 0.1 3 3 23 0.1 6.4 7.8 42
Jaleel McLaughlin 7 32 0.2 1 1 8 0.1 6.2 6.7 43
Kareem Hunt 6 19 0.2 3 2 16 0.1 6.1 7.0 44
Dalvin Cook 6 20 0.3 3 2 9 0.1 6.1 7.0 45
Antonio Gibson 4 14 0.2 3 2 17 0.1 6.0 7.0 46
Jerick McKinnon 2 8 0.2 3 2 17 0.2 5.9 6.9 47
Damien Harris 5 24 0.3 1 1 7 0.0 5.3 5.6 48
Rico Dowdle 5 20 0.2 2 1 11 0.0 5.0 5.7 49

Alvin Kamara (RB6)

Since returning from his suspension, Alvin Kamara ranks as fantasy’s RB15, including an RB6 finish in Week 5. Kamara is seeing levels of usage he’s never seen before. Through two weeks, Kamara is seeing 24.5 touches per game; his previous career-high was 22.1. While those will likely regress once RB Jamaal Williams returns from IR, Kamara is a massive beneficiary of Derek Carr’s banged-up AC joint.

Kamara has been available for short dump-offs and is seeing 59 percent of carries, which ranks 13th since his return. Though rookie RB Kendre Miller is working in, Kamara is the primary back facing a Houston Texans team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and fourth-most touchdowns to running backs. His workload in the ground game and through the air makes him one of the best Week 6 options.

Derrick Henry (RB14)

It’s time to panic on Derrick Henry. When I saw my model had him at RB14, I panicked. Henry only saw three more snaps than rookie Tyjae Spears in Week 5 and is being out-snapped by Spears altogether in the past three weeks. Yes, Henry is one of the GOAT running backs, but the Tennessee Titans are bottom-10 in rushing EPA, and this offense hasn’t put together a good game yet this season.

If you have Henry on your fantasy team, you’re starting him, but if you’re struggling, it could be time to trade him on name value alone. His coming matchup against the Baltimore Ravens doesn’t look good on paper, especially when you consider Baltimore is allowing the third-fewest EPA per rush play.

Jonathan Taylor (RB24)

RB24 is way too low for Jonathan Taylor, but in his first game back he was out-touched by Zack Moss, 25 to seven. Not only that, but Moss had an astonishing 7.2 yards per carry and two touchdowns. My model will be harsh on Taylor — but who is to say this is his backfield and his backfield alone?

Taylor just signed a three-year, $42 million extension, but it’s possible Moss’ success makes this a running back-by-committee until further notice. 

Tight Ends

Player Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR FPPR Rank
Travis Kelce 9 6 72 0.7 14.8 18.0 1
T.J. Hockenson 9 6 47 0.5 10.8 13.7 2
Mark Andrews 7 5 54 0.4 10.1 12.5 3
Sam LaPorta 8 5 51 0.4 9.9 12.5 4
Cole Kmet 8 5 45 0.4 9.4 12.1 5
George Kittle 5 4 45 0.4 8.8 10.8 6
Kyle Pitts 6 4 51 0.3 8.7 10.6 7
Evan Engram 7 5 41 0.3 8.4 10.7 8
Jake Ferguson 6 4 35 0.4 8.2 10.2 9
Darren Waller 7 4 46 0.2 7.9 10.1 10
Dallas Goedert 5 4 29 0.4 7.6 9.7 11
Gerald Everett 5 4 38 0.3 7.6 9.3 12
Durham Smythe 5 3 29 0.5 7.4 9.0 13
Zach Ertz 7 4 33 0.3 7.2 9.4 14
Hunter Henry 5 3 35 0.3 7.1 8.8 15
Dawson Knox 4 3 27 0.5 7.1 8.5 16
Jonnu Smith 5 3 39 0.2 6.6 8.1 17
Dalton Kincaid 5 3 35 0.2 6.6 8.3 18
Tyler Conklin 5 3 40 0.1 6.4 8.1 19
Logan Thomas 5 3 30 0.2 6.0 7.6 20
Dalton Schultz 5 3 26 0.2 5.4 7.1 21
Mike Gesicki 4 3 25 0.2 5.0 6.3 22
Tyler Higbee 3 2 22 0.3 4.9 6.0 23
Cade Otton 4 3 20 0.2 4.9 6.3 24
Chigoziem Okonkwo 4 3 23 0.2 4.8 6.1 25
Taysom Hill 2 1 7 0.1 4.7 5.2 26

 T.J. Hockenson (TE2)

Hockenson could begin to enter Travis Kelce's levels of production with Jefferson sidelined for at least the next four games. He has the second-highest tight end target projected share behind just Kelce. Hockenson is, without a doubt, the most likely player to score a receiving touchdown on the Vikings. 

Dallas Goedert (TE11)

Dallas Goedert returns to top-12 status after scoring his first touchdown of the season and finishing as the Week 5 TE2 with eight receptions, 117 receiving yards and 21.7 fantasy points. Prior to last week, Goedert was fantasy football’s TE32.

After his first solid game of the year, Goedert gets to face the New York Jets, who are allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends. They’ve allowed a tight end to score in four of their five games this season.

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Tags: Alvin Kamara, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk See More

Ben Wolbransky

Ben Wolbransky is a data scientist with a passion for sports analytics. Wolbransky is also a featured writer for BettingPros.

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