Analysis
10/14/23
12 min read
2023 NFL Week 6 Betting Preview for Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments and survivor and winner pools are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I treat various situations in each format. I’ll also provide updates on line movement and notes on every game every week. I’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
In this column, the Circa Sports Million V Pro Football Contest will be referred to as Circa and DraftKings Pick'Em as DraftKings. In addition to the current market consensus lines, I’ll provide spreads from both contests so you don’t have to research disparities.
Be sure to check out Ari Meirov’s Injury Report Tracker.
Ravens at Titans (London)
Spread: Titans +4
Total: 42
The spread for this contest has bounced between Titans +4 and Titans +4.5 throughout the week. Circa has Titans +4, while DraftKings has Titans +4.5. The total has gradually risen from 40.5 to its current mark of 42 points.
Expect the Baltimore Ravens to be used in roughly 80 percent of winner pools this week. My exposure to Baltimore will be a little higher in that format. I’m completely avoiding this matchup in survivor.
Notes
- The Ravens are getting back a number of injured starters this week.
- The Tennessee Titans have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
49ers at Browns
Spread: Browns +10
Total: 36.5
The spread for this contest opened as Browns +4. It’s since moved to Browns +10 due to Deshaun Watson being ruled out. Circa has Browns +7.5, while DraftKings has Browns +5.5. Major tournaments like these rarely have options with this much value versus the current line. The total has moved down from 37.5 to 36.5 points.
Expect the San Francisco 49ers to be used in nearly 95 percent of winner pools this week. I intended to have nearly equal exposure to both teams in this format if Watson was playing. In that scenario, I wanted to use Cleveland as a leverage play. Now that PJ Walker will take over at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, I’ll be even with the field in this format. I will save San Francisco for later in the year, but they are a perfectly reasonable survivor option.
Notes
- The Browns are coming off their bye.
- San Francisco has scored more than 30 points in every game this year.
Panthers at Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -14
Total: 47.5
The spread for this contest opened at Dolphins -14, where it’s returned after a mid-week stint at Dolphins -13.5. Both Circa and DraftKings have this line set as Dolphins -13.5. The total is down from 48.5 to its current mark of 47.5.
Expect the Miami Dolphins to be used in nearly all winner pool entries this week. The Carolina Panthers are a desperate, winless team heading into this matchup. I think they get their first win after their Week 7 bye, but I will use Carolina in at least one of my winner pools as leverage. Miami is one of the two top options in survivor this week. I will use them in a number of spots where I used Detroit last week.
Notes
- Both teams have a number of notable players on the injury report.
- The Panthers have allowed the third-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Raheem Mostert is in line for considerable usage this week.
Colts at Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -4
Total: 44.5 (Down from 45.5)
The spread for this game has stayed at Jaguars -4 while the total has dipped slightly from 44.5 to 44 points. Circa has Jaguars -4, while DraftKings has Jaguars -4.5.
Expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be used in roughly 85 percent of winner pool entries this week. That high a percentage makes the Indianapolis Colts a solid leverage play in that format. I won’t be very aggressive there, but my ratio will be closer to Jaguars 80 percent and Colts 20 percent. I'd stick with the Jaguars if I had just one winner pool entry. I’m avoiding this matchup in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Jaguars are coming off back-to-back London games.
- Gardner Minshew will start at quarterback for the Colts.
- The Colts have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Indianapolis has given up the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Jaguars have given up the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- The Colts have given up the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Vikings at Bears
Spread: Bears +3
Total: 43.5
The spread for this matchup has bounced between Bears +2.5 and Bears +3. Circa has Bears +3, while DraftKings has Bears +2.5. Weather concerns have moved the total down from 44.5 to 43 points.
Expect the Minnesota Vikings to be used in roughly 55 percent of winner pools this week. This game will likely be my strongest stance in the format, as I will take the Chicago Bears in approximately 75 percent of my winner pools. If I were in just one winner pool, I would take the Bears. I’m completely avoiding this matchup in survivor pools.
Notes
- Justin Jefferson will miss this contest.
- There are some weather concerns for this matchup.
- The Vikings have allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Bears have given up the 10th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Seahawks at Bengals
Spread: Bengals -3
Total: 44.5
The spread has stayed at Bengals -3 throughout the week, with a few dips down to Bengals -2.5. Both Circa and DraftKings set this line as Bengals -2.5. The total has moved down from 45.5 to its current mark of 44.5 points.
Expect Cincinnati to be used in roughly 70 percent of winner pool entries. Seattle has a better roster, and they are coming off their bye. The Cincinnati Bengals, however, are the far more desperate team at 2-3 with games against the Bills and 49ers up next. I will treat this contest as more of a coin flip in winner pools, with a slight lean to the Bengals. I’ll avoid this game entirely in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Seattle Seahawks are coming off their bye.
- The Bengals have given up the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Seattle has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Saints at Texans
Spread: Texans +1.5
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has ranged from Texans +2.5 to Texans +1. Circa has Texans +2, while DraftKings has Texans +1.5. The total spent most of the week at 42.5 before moving slightly down to 42 on Friday afternoon.
Expect the New Orleans Saints to be used in roughly 65 percent of winner pools this week. I liked a number of underdogs in Week 5, so I did very well in winner pools last week. I do not like many underdogs on this slate, especially with Watson out. Getting the coin flip-type games right in those weeks is very important. I hoped this matchup would be pretty even in winner pools so I could be very Saints-heavy. I will still be Saints heavy, but that stance won’t be an edge like I had hoped. I’m avoiding this game in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Houston Texans have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Houston has allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends.
Commanders at Falcons
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Total: 42
The spread for this contest has stayed at Falcons -2.5 with a few fluctuations to Falcons -3. Both Circa and DraftKings have this line set as Falcons -2.5. The total spent most of the week at 42.5 points before slightly moving down to 42 points on Friday.
Expect the Atlanta Falcons to be used in roughly 75 percent of winner pool entries this week. Given that very high number, I will use these teams in a Falcons 55 percent to Commanders 45 percent type ratio. If I were in only one winner pool, I’d strongly consider taking Washington as a differentiator option. I’m going to avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Washington Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Falcons have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Patriots at Raiders
Spread: Raiders -3 (Up from Raiders -2.5)
Total: 41
The spread for this contest moved up from Raiders -2.5 to Raiders -3. Circa has Raiders -3, while DraftKings has Raiders -3.5. DraftKings only uses half points, so there are no ties, but the decision to give the Raiders the hook is noteworthy. The total has moved down slightly from 41.5 to 41 points.
Expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be used in nearly 80 percent of winner pools this week. This is another game where I hoped these teams would be used in a near-even split. In that scenario, being Raiders-heavy would be a leverage play. Given this very high number, my ratio will be closer to Raiders 65 percent to Patriots 35 percent in winner pools. If you play a lot of volume in survivor, taking a chance with the Raiders on one entry has some merit, but only if you play major volume.
Notes
- The Raiders have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- The New England Patriots have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to running backs.
Eagles at Jets
Spread: Jets +6.5
Total: 40.5
The spread for this matchup has fluctuated between Jets +6.5 and Jets +7. Circa has Jets +7, while DraftKings has Jets +6.5. The total has moved down from 41 to 40.5 points.
Expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be used in nearly 90 percent of winner pool entries. Jalen Carter and Darius Slay could both miss this contest, which reduces my Eagles’ enthusiasm for this matchup. Still, I don’t have a ton of interest in backing Zach Wilson to win outright. My winner pool exposure will be nearly equal to the field. Similar to the 49ers, the Eagles aren’t an unreasonable play in survivor. I may use them in one entry to differentiate, but in general, I will save Philadelphia.
Notes
- The New York Jets have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and the second-most receiving yards to running backs.
- The Eagles have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- New York has given up the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Lions at Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers +3
Total: 42
The spread for this contest has stabilized at Buccaneers +3 throughout the week, with a few fluctuations to Buccaneers +3.5. Both Circa and DraftKings have this line set as Buccaneers +3.5. The total has fallen from 43.5 down to 42 points.
Expect the Detroit Lions to be used in nearly 80 percent of winner pool entries. I’m not a Baker Mayfield guy, so I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this spot. That said, they are a strong leverage play as 3-point home underdogs coming off their bye. I won’t take a big stance here, as my ratio will be right around Lions 75 percent to Buccaneers 25 percent. This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Buccaneers are coming off their bye.
- Detroit has a number of starters on the injury report.
- The Lions have allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Cardinals at Rams
Spread: Rams -7
Total: 49
The spread for this contest has moved up from Rams -6 to Rams -7. Circa has Rams -7, while DraftKings has Rams -6.5. The total has moved up slightly from 48.5 to 49 points.
Expect the Los Angeles Rams to be used in nearly 90 percent of winner pool entries. The Arizona Cardinals looked like the talent-poor team we were expecting last week. They are among the best leverage plays on this slate if they play more like they did through the first four weeks. Despite that notion, I expect to be close to even with the field on this matchup. The Rams will be popular in survivor pools this week. At some point in survivor, you have to play some imperfect teams in that format, which makes the Rams a viable option.
Notes
- The Cardinals have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards and eighth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Rams have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Sunday Night Football: Giants at Bills
Spread: Bills -15
Total: 44
The spread for this contest has moved from Bills -14 to Bills -15. Both Circa and DraftKings have Bills -14.5. The total has moved slightly down from 44.5 to 44 points.
Expect the Buffalo Bills to be used in nearly all winner pool entries this week. It’s going to take a catastrophe for Buffalo to lose this game. I will use them in all of my winner pools and in a number of my survivor pool entries.
Notes
- Buffalo is coming off a game in London.
- The New York Giants have allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs.
- The Bills have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs.
Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Chargers
Spread: Chargers +2.5
Total: 50.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Chargers +1.5 to Chargers +2.5. Circa has Chargers +2.5, while DraftKings has Chargers +1.5. The total has moved up slightly from 50.5 to 51 points.
Expect the Dallas Cowboys to be used in roughly 60 percent of winner pool entries. The Monday night game is often the tiebreaker, meaning I’m less likely to be contrarian on Mondays. That said, I view this game as more of a coin flip than oddsmakers, so that’s how I’ll treat it in winner pools. This matchup should be avoided in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off their bye.
- The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
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Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
