Betting
12/21/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 Betting Preview: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Patriots (3-11) at Broncos (7-7)
Spread: Broncos -6.5
Total: 34.5
Weather: Chance for snow
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has moved from Broncos -6 to Broncos -6.5. The total has stayed adjacent to 34.5 points through Thursday morning.
Broncos Offense vs. Patriots Defense
The Denver Broncos score 21.7 points per game, which is 16th in the league. The New England Patriots allow 21.4 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
Russell Wilson has thrown for fewer than 200 passing yards in eight of his 14 games. Courtland Sutton leads Denver in receptions (58), receiving yards (770), target share (22.3 percent) and receiving touchdowns (10). Jerry Jeudy is second on the team in receptions (45), receiving yards (581) and target share (20.3 percent). The Patriots allow the 15th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Javonte Williams is 15th in the league in carries, but he’s only exceeded 80 rushing yards in two games this season. Williams is averaging 52 rushing yards per game, the 24th in the league. Williams is 33rd among running backs in receiving yards, but Samaje Perine is seventh. New England has given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards but the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs.
Patriots Offense vs. Broncos Defense
New England has played musical chairs at quarterback this season, scoring a league-worst 13.3 points per game. The offense has been better with Bailey Zappe starting in the past two weeks.
The Broncos are giving up 25.1 points per game, the third-worst in the league. That number is a little misleading, as 112 of the 351 points Denver has allowed this same came in two games. Denver allows 19.9 points per game in its other 12 contests, which would be tied for the eighth-best in the league.
No Patriots pass catcher has reached 500 receiving yards this season. Rookie Demario Douglas leads the group with 443 receiving yards. Douglas has at least seven targets in four of his last five games. The Broncos are allowing the 18th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
TE Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in receptions (42) and receiving touchdowns (6). He’s second in receiving yards with 419. Henry’s 13.3 percent target share is fourth on the team. Denver is giving up the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Ezekiel Elliott has taken on a bell cow role the past two weeks with 33 carries and 14 targets. The Broncos give up the most rushing yards and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs.
What You’re Betting On
Denver’s defense has driven most of its success during their 6-2 run. If you’re betting on Denver, you expect its defense to bounce back after giving up 42 points in Detroit last week. Denver is still in the wild-card race, so the Broncos are a highly motivated team. Quarterback is a big edge for Denver in this matchup. While Wilson doesn’t technically face Zappe, Wilson gives the Broncos offense a higher ceiling.
If you’re betting on New England, you are banking on Bill Belichick’s defense shutting down Wilson’s offense. You’re also counting on Belichick to keep his team motivated despite having nothing to play for but pride. Offensively, if you’re a Patriots bettor, you’re hoping for an effort that resembles their 21-18 win over Pittsburgh.
Score Prediction: Broncos 16, Patriots 10
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 40-35
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 26-25
