NFL Analysis
1/14/24
7 min read
2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs Are Inevitable
Nothing about this year's Kansas City Chiefs felt right.
Patrick Mahomes didn't put up MVP numbers, and Travis Kelce tapered off as the season dragged on. Wide receivers made mistakes seemingly every drive, a far cry from the tidied-up environment we are used to seeing from Andy Reid offenses. The Chiefs were in most games because of their defense rather than in spite of it.
After five years of being a known quantity and king of the sport, the team's entire identity flipped on its head.
Yet here they are again, bludgeoning another 11-win team in the playoffs as if none of those struggles happened. The Chiefs handled the Miami Dolphins 26-7 in frigid conditions with a familiar poise and dominance. While the box score would lie and tell you this was a close game for a long time, it was never out of the Chiefs' control. Mahomes and crew throttled the Dolphins from start to finish, as much as any team can in sub-zero weather.
It's not just that the Chiefs won big or that they did it in tumultuous conditions. The real kicker is both sides of the ball took over. Mahomes and the offense, for the most part, played to the standard they have set for themselves over the years, while the defense nearly skunked an otherwise explosive offense.
Leaning On Mahomes Is Never a Bad Idea
Naturally, it starts with Mahomes. The defense has been a steady force all season, but when the Chiefs are rolling, it's because Mahomes is activated. On Saturday night, he was as lethal as ever.
Mahomes dropped back 43 times in the freezing cold. Snow games are supposed to be tough, hard-nosed affairs that play to the principles of every old-school football coach in America, but the Chiefs asked Mahomes to go out and win the game instead. That alone tells you how much faith this offense has in Mahomes to produce no matter what.
The weather wasn't the only hellish factor in Mahomes' way. Dolphins DC Vic Fangio, down his three best pass-rushers, opted to throw the kitchen sink at Mahomes on passing downs. Blitzing Mahomes has never been a good idea, but Fangio was kind of caught between a rock and a hard place.
Fangio leaned all the way in and blitzed Mahomes on 48.8 percent of his dropbacks, the second-highest mark of his entire career, per NextGenStats.
All of the blitzing was not effective. It never has been against Mahomes; the Dolphins game was no exception. While Mahomes only went 10 of 21 against the blitz, he also threw for 123 yards (5.9 per pass), did not turn the ball over and did not take a single sack, according to NextGenStats. Not only wasn’t Mahomes sacked, but he scrambled for 41 yards and two first downs on his only two tries.
Mahomes had an answer for everything. Neither the freezing conditions, the unrelenting pressure or a cracked helmet could stop Mahomes.
Rashee Rice Delivers in Playoff Debut
That version of Mahomes has been present all year long, though. Whether or not he got enough help to put up the numbers to support it has been another story.
For most of the season, the Chiefs' pass-catchers were a problem. This was a unit built around Kelce with a bunch of young and/or incomplete role players. Kelce turned in his "worst" season as a pro.
Hardly anyone else stepped up to fill the void other than rookie Rashee Rice, but even he was inconsistent for most of the season. The offense still felt like it lacked a true answer outside of "Kelce, please get open somewhere."
Rice might've finally done enough to earn the unwavering faith of Reid and Mahomes.
Not only did the Chiefs turn to Rice on a shallow crosser on their opening script touchdown, but the passing game became entirely about him after a certain point.
Reid started doing all he could to get Rice on the move and unlock his YAC ability. Screens, crossers, slant routes — anything to get Rice rolling with the ball in his hands became the Chiefs' best play.
Chiefs Receiving Breakdown
Rice finished with 12 targets, eight receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown, all tops for any player in this game. He even had a second touchdown on a screen yanked off the board thanks to a Jawaan Taylor penalty.
To the point about his usage, 80 of Rice's yards came after the catch, per NextGenStats. Again, that was most in the game by about double that of anyone else.
Reid put his young receiver in favorable positions, and Mahomes threw at him time and time again. Rice paid them both off with a star receiver performance. For a rookie getting his first taste of playoff football, it was everything you could hope for.
Chiefs Defense Sends Another Message
The Chiefs' defense deserves its flowers as well. A defense that's been suffocating all season long now has the Steve Spagnuolo playoff buff. Usually, that boost only took the Chiefs' defense from bad to serviceable in the postseason, but now it can take them from great to potentially elite.
Holding the Dolphins to seven points in the first round of the playoffs was a good start.
Granted, the weather helped them a good bit. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa did not appear to be an all-weather quarterback and coach Mike McDaniel hardly trusted him with many opportunities to prove it.
The game plan was supposed to be about running the ball and using the passing game to generate short YAC chances, but the run game never got going and the YAC opportunities didn't do enough. Miami's only score came on an underthrown heave to Tyreek Hill, a play that maybe no other receiver in the league scores on.
Weather aside, it became clear how many true impact players this Chiefs defense has.
DT Chris Jones is the ace. Everything the Chiefs do upfront from a pressure perspective runs through Jones. It was Jones' sidekick who took over this game, though. DE George Karlaftis had a mini-breakout game with 1.5 sacks and a slew of plays at the line of scrimmage in run defense. Little by little, Karlaftis continues to come along as a player and put together more of these big-time performances.
The secondary has a pair of stars, too.
CB L'Jarius Sneed was robbed of All-Pro honors if we're being honest. A long, mean cornerback who first caught on as a run defender and press coverage pest, Sneed has fully blossomed into one of the league's best outside cornerbacks.
In the slot, Trent McDuffie has come to personify Spagnuolo's defense. He's quick, versatile, and most importantly, he is unhinged when fitting the run and playing with physicality. He plays with someone who has zero concern for his own body — the mark of all great nickel defenders.
All of those guys have the capacity to take over drives. Jones has a well-documented history of doing so on past versions of this team, but he doesn't have to do it alone anymore. That quartet of stars with Spagnuolo pulling all the strings is more than enough to give any offense trouble.
Victory Reminds What Chiefs Are Capable Of
The Chiefs aren't suddenly the best team in the league again because they won a wild-card game. The non-Rice/Kelce pass-catchers are still a problem. Poor offensive tackle play could crop up again vs. healthier pass-rush units, and there is no guarantee the run game will be stable week to week.
Reid and Mahomes have earned a lot of benefit of the doubt, but not enough to wash away an entire season of sloppy football with a single win.
At the same time, a win like this serves as a reminder of what this version of the Chiefs can be at their best. A Chiefs team firing on all cylinders is still the one team nobody wants to face. It's all a matter of getting them to be that team each and every week.
