Fantasy
1/25/24
22 min read
Predicting the Early Rounds of 2024 Fantasy Drafts
Here are my way too early 2024 redraft fantasy rankings for the first three rounds. You’ll find 36 ranked players for 12-team leagues, along with a bonus player at the end.
Players are divided into tiers to help drafters understand what draft slots they should begin targeting for 2024.
Top 2024 Fantasy Football Players
Tier 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers 
Christian McCaffrey averaged 24.5 PPR fantasy points per game, more than three points above Kyren Williams (21.3), who only played in 12 games due to injuries related to his workload. Third-highest was Alvin Kamara at 17.9 per game.
McCaffrey is a fantasy cheat code who separates himself from the rest of the league's running backs with authority. He turns 28 this summer but hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, rushing for a career-high 1,459 yards in 2023. He should be the 1.01 in 2024 fantasy drafts.
2. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
No player had more than CeeDee Lamb’s 135 receptions in 2023, and his 1,749 receiving yards were only bested by Tyreek Hill. Lamb will be 25 next year, so he’s in his athletic prime. Target competition should be minimal once again, as he’ll likely compete with veteran Brandin Cooks and possession tight end Jake Ferguson for looks from MVP-candidate Dak Prescott.
Expect another season with a target share hovering around 30 percent for Lamb, who just led all receivers with 23.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both free agents, and Ja’Marr Chase could have Joe Burrow all to himself in 2024. Prior to Burrow’s injury, Chase was on pace for 187 targets, 130 receptions, 1,551 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s been frustrating for fantasy managers the past two seasons, but when we zoom out, we’re looking at a top-three talent at the position, paired with an elite quarterback and minimal target competition.
4. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson falls below Chase in these rankings primarily due to quarterback uncertainty. His target competition should be stiffer than Lamb's and Chase's, because Jefferson will play all of 2024 alongside Jordan Addison and the second-half of the season with post-ACL tear T.J. Hockenson.
If Kirk Cousins re-signs with the Minnesota Vikings, Jefferson has a case to go 1.02. Despite Jefferson leaving Week 14’s contest after only 13 snaps (a hospital ball from QB Josh Dobbs), he still managed to set a career-high with 107.4 receiving yards per game. Like Lamb, Jefferson will be playing in his age 25 season.
5. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill became the first player in NFL history to have multiple seasons with at least 1,700 receiving yards, and he had them in back-to-back seasons. Before his Week 14 ankle sprain, Hill was on pace for 2,098 yards, 17 touchdowns and a league-leading 26.1 PPR fantasy points per game.
The biggest issue here is his age, as Hill turns 30 on March 1. This past season, we saw Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp experience sharp declines as they hit age 30. Lamb, Chase and Jefferson will all be 25 or younger in 2024. They are the safer picks with similar enough fantasy upside at receiver.
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Tier 2
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
After having 106 receptions, 1,161 yards and six touchdowns in 2022, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 119 receptions, 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns in an identical number of games in 2023. In addition to the pure volume increase, his average depth of target increased from 6.1 to 7.6 yards downfield. Not only did he operate farther downfield, St. Brown improved his effectiveness on the perimeter, showcasing his versatility.
In 2022, 12 percent of his routes were out wide, and he averaged just 1.9 yards per route run (YPRR). This past season, St. Brown lined up on the outside 17 percent of the time and posted an impressive 2.4 YPRR. He’s a slight cut below the first five options, but deserves to headline this tier.
7. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
If any running back challenges McCaffrey for RB1 overall, it’ll be Breece Hall with Aaron Rodgers. Hall has the size, speed, pass-catching chops and goal-line role in his favor. A competent offense should help him surpass 20 fantasy points per game — he still crested 17 per game lining up behind three different backup quarterbacks in 2023.
8. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs started slowly during his rookie season, averaging 45 rushing yards, 17.5 receiving yards and just under 14 touches per game over the first month. After missing Weeks 5 and 6 due to injury, Gibbs went on a tear over the final 11 games of the regular season. He averaged 13 carries, 4.8 targets, 92 total yards, one touchdown and 18.5 fantasy points per game from Week 7 onward.
After the Detroit Lions' Week 9 bye, Gibbs averaged 2.7 red zone carries and 0.9 goal line attempt per game, while David Montgomery was at 2.9 and 1.5, respectively. Gibbs is in the Alvin Kamara role — if Kamara also had elite breakaway speed.
9. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Some fantasy managers will never forgive Bijan Robinson for the Week 7 headache game, where he carried the ball once for three yards on 11 total snaps. If we pin that game on now-fired head coach Arthur Smith’s antics, we start to see a different picture of Robinson’s rookie season. In those other 16 games, Robinson averaged 13.3 carries, 5.4 targets, 91.2 total yards, 0.4 touchdown and 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game.
Among 30 running backs with at least 15 combined opportunities (carries plus targets) per game, Robinson’s touchdowns per touch ranked 24th. Much of that was due to Smith’s questionable play-calling and personnel packages, as Tyler Allgeier averaged 1.8 red zone carries and 0.4 goal line carry per game (excluding Week 7) to Robinson’s 1.4 and 0.2, respectively.
Expect the high-value opportunities to go the way of the generational talent in 2024 with a new coach in town.
10. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Garrett Wilson has great speed, high draft capital and back-to-back seasons with at least 147 targets, 83 receptions and 1,000 yards to begin his career. He also finished fifth in the NFL with a 30 percent target share in 2023. Ultimately, he was held back by quarterback play, as the New York Jets rotated through three quarterbacks after Rodgers went down.
When looking at yards per route run among Jets wide receivers, Wilson’s 1.6 was at least double that of every other wideout on the team. We are looking at an elite talent, with elite peripherals, who could give us a 2023 Lamb season with improved play at quarterback.
11. Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua set the rookie receiving record with 1,486 yards on 105 receptions. He also chipped in 89 rushing yards on 12 attempts. Including the postseason, Nacua and Kupp overlapped for 13 games. Nacua’s 86.5 receiving yards per game dwarfed Kupp’s 58.8 per game in those contests. Assuming Matthew Stafford remains in Los Angeles, Nacua should once again get peppered with targets from the future Hall of Famer.
12. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The Anthony Richardson sneak peak we received to begin 2023 was promising, and Jonathan Taylor caught fire after being eased in to start the season. After he split touches with Zack Moss in Weeks 5 and 6, Taylor averaged 19.4 carries, two targets, 99 total yards and 17.6 fantasy points per game from then on.
The Indianapolis Colts' season featured multiple injuries and backup quarterback play, so there’s optimism we get another difference-making fantasy performance from Taylor in 2024. However, he either needs a massive touchdown spike or more than two targets per game to get close to 20 fantasy points per game.
13. Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams put on his best McCaffrey impersonation this season, averaging 19 carries, four targets and 112.5 total yards per game. He did miss four games midseason to injury, and his draft capital was the fifth round of the 2022 draft. However, in 2023, only McCaffrey scored more fantasy points per game at the position than Williams.
There’s inherent risk with taking a player this early when his 2024 role isn’t fully secure, but the Los Angeles Rams (a playoff team) traded away Cam Akers and cut Darrell Henderson during the season. Williams also ranked 10th in Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards above expectation per attempt (0.45 yards).
Depending how the NFL Draft and free agency go, Williams at the end of Round 1 will either look like a steal or a sunken fantasy draft pick.
Tier 3
14. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
After 88 receptions for 1,496 yards in 2022, A.J. Brown gave us 106 receptions for 1,456 yards in 2023. His 29.8 percent target share, 2.8 YPRR and 17 PPR fantasy points per game all ranked eighth at the position, despite him only scoring seven touchdowns, his second-lowest output of his five-year career. The Philadelphia Eagles' pass defense is in shambles, and that likely carries over to next season, too. Jalen Hurts will likely need to pass often in 2024 to keep pace with opponents, which is great news for Brown, Hurts' No. 1 option.
15. Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
After 13 carries and two receptions per game last season, Travis Etienne greatly improved on those marks this season, averaging nearly 16 carries and 3.4 receptions per game. His touchdown numbers also rebounded, going from five to 12.
Unfortunately, the Jacksonville Jaguars' offensive line was problematic all season, and Etienne had fewer rushing yards in 2023 despite the much larger workload. When zooming out, he’s the bell cow back in an offense we have faith in — with breakaway speed. He is one of the few NFL running backs with true job security, making him a safe pick early in 2024 redraft/best ball season.
16. Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Second-round rookie Rashee Rice was efficient all season, but he didn’t get full-time route-running opportunities until Week 12. From Week 12 through the divisional round of the playoffs (eight games), Rice averaged nine targets, 6.9 receptions, 87 yards and 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game. Travis Kelce will be 35 for most of the 2024 campaign, and he has already shown signs of slowing down.
Rice’s 2.5 YPRR was first on the Chiefs, with Kelce a distant second at 2.1 YPRR. Overall, just nine receivers finished with better efficiency than Rice, who could make a Year 2 leap after a strong initial campaign. Patrick Mahomes’ new top option should be taken in Round 2 of fantasy drafts.
17. De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
De'Von Achane played at least 25 snaps in nine games his rookie season, averaging 11 carries, 88 rushing yards, 3.9 targets, 21 receiving yards, 1.2 touchdowns and 21 fantasy points per game. That would have ranked third behind Kyren Williams.
Raheem Mostert turns 32 in April and scored 21 total touchdowns in 2023. Achane might struggle to stay healthy at his size, and it’s unclear what the Miami Dolphins plan to do at running back in 2024, but Achane has shown he can succeed in fantasy on limited opportunities with his speed and Miami’s explosive offense.
18. Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Nico Collins might be the least talented wide receiver on this list, but he’s in the perfect situation — catching passes from C.J. Stroud. Collins averaged 17.4 PPR fantasy points per game (seventh), despite barely playing in two games due to injury. His 3.3 YPRR was a number only bested by Hill, and there’s potential for the Stroud-Collins connection to grow in their second season together. The Houston Texans' pass attack is one to bet on in 2024 fantasy drafts.
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Tier 4
19. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Only five receivers had more games with at least 90 receiving yards in 2023 than Chris Olave (seven). In his first year playing with Derek Carr, Olave slightly improved upon his impressive rookie campaign. He has averaged 70 receiving yards per game in back-to-back seasons, and he doesn’t turn 24 until late June.
Olave’s 25 percent target share and 111 air yards per game are a formidable duo for expected fantasy points. If Carr didn’t suffer multiple injuries in 2023, Olave’s fantasy season would have been even better. It’s hard to imagine the speedy receiver scoring only five touchdowns again on 87 receptions.
20. Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Sam LaPorta had the best fantasy season ever by a rookie tight end, averaging more than 14 fantasy points per game. Natural improvement in Year 2 should more than offset his 10 touchdowns — expect closer to seven in 2024, and the only tight ends to out-score him in 2023 are either injured (Hockenson, ACL) or soon to be 35 years old (Kelce).
LaPorta's floor is high given his rookie season, and his ceiling is unknown (in a good way) because we just witnessed him set the rookie tight end fantasy record. With three Lions skill players going so early, there’s a good chance one of them fails to meet ADP. However, it’s rare to have three mega producers who are all 24 years old or younger. Detroit could still be an ascending offense heading into 2024.
21. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk tied with Collins for second in the NFL with 3.3 YPRR, and Aiyuk put up those numbers on an average depth of target 30 percent higher than Hill and Collins. Aiyuk had a unique downfield role in 2023, one he excelled in. Aiyuk’s profile is an ascending one, as he has increased his receiving yardage in all four NFL seasons, finishing with 1,342 yards in 16 games this past year.
His 16.2 PPR fantasy points per game during the fantasy season ranked 13th at the position, yet his 6.7 targets per game ranked just 36th. There’s natural regression coming to Brock Purdy’s league-leading 9.6 yards per pass attempt, which resulted in fewer than 28 passes per game (35th among quarterbacks with at least five games played).
As the hyper-efficient top target in an elite offense, Aiyuk should have similar yardage with more receptions (PPR value) in 2024.
22. DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
DJ Moore had a career-year in 2023, catching 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. His 16.9 PPR fantasy points per game ranked ninth at the position, but his 8.1 targets per game came in slightly lower at 15th. The Chicago Bears likely move on from Justin Fields this offseason, so Moore probably plays 2024 with a very talented rookie passer.
There are some moving parts here, but Moore putting up a career-best season in his first year in Chicago shows that the team wants him to be the featured offensive weapon.
23. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman Jr. had the fourth-highest target share this season, taking another leap forward in Year 4. His 109 receptions were also fourth among wide receivers, but his 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game ranked just 14th.
The concern here is that his average depth of target resembled St. Brown’s, yet unlike St. Brown, the Colts probably pass much less than the Lions with the mobile Richardson returning under center. Touchdowns could be hard to come by for Pittman, too, with both Richardson and Taylor near the goal line. Still, Pittman showcased target-earning ability in 2023 that put him in elite company.
24. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Saquon Barkley will be 27 heading into his seventh NFL season in 2024. It’s unclear where he’ll land, now that he’s a free agent, and while he did average 20.6 total touches per game (fourth), his 2.9 receptions per game was the lowest mark of his career. He has the potential to rise in the rankings if he lands on a team such as the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals or Texans.
However, it’s still unclear if NFL teams view Barkley as a bell cow like the New York Giants did. He finished 13th in Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expectation per attempt, which is strong but not overly impressive for someone taken at Pick 2 in the draft. Injuries appeared to zap some of his explosiveness and change-of-direction ability.
25. Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
Tank Dell was off to a historic start to his NFL career prior to suffering a broken leg. He was a fantasy WR1 at the time of his injury, averaging 16 fantasy points per game. He'll immediately slot in alongside Collins in two-receiver sets once again next year, and we should think of this Texans team like Burrow’s Bengals, where Chase and Higgins could flirt with fantasy WR1 production at once.
The concern with Dell is his size, as very few 165-pound receivers have had lasting careers — think Marquise Brown and his injury history.
26. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Marvin Harrison Jr. has the Hall-of-Fame pedigree with his father, and as a prospect, Harrison Jr. is well ahead of him (his father was taken 19th overall in 1996, while Harrison Jr. will be gone within the first five picks).
It might seem ludicrous to rank a rookie this high, but he’s really the perfect prospect, and we’ve seen other high-end rookie receivers produce immediately during their rookie seasons. He’s tall with elite speed and route-running ability and put up 1,200 yards and 14 receiving touchdowns in his sophomore and junior seasons. His yards per reception was above 16 both years — Harrison should step right into the big-play-type rookie season Chase did.
Harrison might take a few weeks to truly get going, but we’ve had recent fantasy WR1 rookie seasons from Jefferson, Chase, Nacua and Dell. Many mock drafts have Harrison Jr. landing with the Cardinals at Pick 4, and it’s easy to see him becoming an absolute fantasy force with Kyler Murray.
27. Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White finished as the RB10 in PPR fantasy points per game with 15.8, but it was his touch domination that really cements him as a top option for 2024. White averaged 16 carries and 3.8 receptions per game, and his 19.8 touches per game ranked fifth in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense were able to sustain drives better than expected, and as strange as it sounds, Mayfield’s return would probably benefit White’s fantasy outlook for 2024. There is some risk the team drafts a running back, but with White entering just his third season — and with his third-round draft capital — he’s a relatively good bet to escape the draft and free agency relatively unscathed.
28. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen set the single-season record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 15. Hurts will head into 2024 with the top-flight trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as pass-catchers, but the Eagles' offensive line will have more question marks with center Jason Kelce’s presumed retirement.
Even in a (relative) down year, Hurts still averaged 22 fantasy points per game, and nagging injuries likely contributed to his late-season struggles. The reason Hurts is currently QB1 for 2024 is due to his rushing ability, supporting cast and the Eagles’ problematic pass defense. There should be numerous shootouts for this team next season.
29. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is ranked just below Hurts due to more uncertainty with his supporting cast. Stefon Diggs began to fall off a cliff in the second-half of the season and will be 31 next year. Dalton Kincaid is a great piece, but he’s unlikely to operate as the consistent go-to in this offense.
In 2023, Allen scored two more fantasy points per game than the fantasy QB2 (Hurts). Allen's supporting cast could start to resemble Mahomes’ 2023 options, where Allen is forced to create more on his own, which has a chance to suppress his fantasy output. He's mobile, but all his elite fantasy seasons have coincided with Diggs’ prime.
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Tier 5
30. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen will be 32 next season, but he did just lead all players in receptions per game (8.3 per game, a 141-per-season pace). Mike Williams will be coming off an ACL tear, Austin Ekeler will probably be on another team and Quentin Johnston looks like a colossal bust. Things seem to be setting up for another high-usage season for the veteran Allen.
The reason Allen — who averaged more fantasy points per game than everyone not named Lamb or Hill — isn’t ranked higher is age concerns. He appeared to lose a step during his age 30 season before rebounding nicely last season. There’s some chance Allen’s 2024 season resembles Diggs’ 2023 one.
31. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans has at least 1,000 yards in all 10 of his NFL campaigns, and his 79 catch, 1,255 yard, 13 touchdown effort in 2023 ranks among his best seasons. He’ll turn 31 right before the 2024 season starts, so there are age-related concerns with him, but his age 30 season was arguably his best output since his age 25 season in 2018.
With Evans a free agent, he’ll get to choose his destination, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll leave Tampa Bay unless he'll play with someone such as Mahomes, Allen or Justin Herbert. Mayfield and Evans clearly had a strong connection, and there’s potential for them to be on the same page even more often in 2024.
32. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams is one of the toughest players to rank for 2024. On one hand, he’s a 31-year-old coming off his lowest receiving yardage since 2019. On the other hand, he just led the NFL with a 33 percent target share.
No wide receiver other than maybe Garrett Wilson suffered more from poor quarterback play than Adams, but it’s still unclear what his situation will look like in 2024. He has the chance to be a big riser if his quarterback outlook dramatically improves because his talent is still there. However, if he’s still on the Las Vegas Raiders catching passes from a rookie in 2024, he should probably get drafted in Round 5 or 6.
33. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara will likely be tied to the New Orleans Saints once again in 2024 ($18.9 million in dead cap if cut after 2023). This season, he was handed some of the more outrageous usage of his career. His 13.8 carries per game were his third-highest mark, and his 5.8 receptions per game were tied for the highest of his career.
Only McCaffrey and Kyren Williams scored more than Kamara’s 17.9 PPR fantasy points per game, but Kamara’s 3.9 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per reception were both incredibly inefficient marks. He’ll be 29 for all of the 2024 season, and second-year back Kendre Miller will likely push for a bigger role in Year 2.
Kamara carries risk as a potential dead zone running back, but his pass-catching chops should at least give him a reasonable floor.
34. Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
When Trey McBride took over as the starter for the injured Zach Ertz in Week 8, he averaged 8.5 targets, 6.6 receptions, 66 yards and 14.9 PPR fantasy points per game during that 10-week stretch. That mark would have led all tight ends in fantasy points for 2023.
He was taken in Round 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft, so the pedigree is there. The reason McBride isn’t ranked higher is due to target competition. The Cardinals are likely drafting Harrison Jr. or turning to free agency to add another wideout, so McBride's target volume should drop slightly compared with his late-season heroics.
35. James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
From Weeks 11-15 (four games due to the Buffalo Bills' Week 13 bye), James Cook averaged 17 carries, 88 rushing yards, 4.8 targets, 53 receiving yards and 24 PPR fantasy points per game — nearly McCaffrey-esque. In his other 13 games — including the postseason — he averaged 13.7 carries, 61 rushing yards, 2.9 targets, 17 receiving yards and 11 PPR fantasy points per game (Gus Edwards-esque).
Cook reached 15 fantasy points just twice in those other 13 games, too. He was taken out at the goal line for much of the season in favor of Latavius Murray or Allen. Cook does everything except score touchdowns, and unfortunately in fantasy football, he’ll need more goal-line work to justify an early draft position.
36. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle now has at least 72 receptions and 1,014 receiving yards in all three of his NFL seasons, and while 2023 felt disappointing, Waddle was still on pace for over 1,200 receiving yards in a 17-game season. He dealt with injuries on multiple occasions, and with Hill turning 30 in March, there’s some chance Waddle takes on a larger share of the Dolphins' offense.
Additionally, with major injuries to both Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips on defense, Miami's pass rush will be diminished for most of 2024. That could lead to more shootout game environments, which would benefit Waddle.
(Bonus) Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce’s 66 yards per game were his lowest number since 2015. He dealt with injuries throughout 2023 and didn’t look nearly as explosive as he had in past years. However, he still led all tight ends with 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game, and his 2.1 YPRR were second behind only George Kittle’s 2.5.
If the Chiefs add another receiver in free agency or the draft, Kelce will tumble further down these rankings. Should the team stay put with Rice and Kelce as the headliners, this ranking might be too low for the veteran.
