NFL Analysis
4/27/24
9 min read
Flurry of NFL Draft Trades Showcases Risk, Reward of Getting Your Guy
The second day of the draft is typically trade-heavy. With teams still trying to get players at the top of their boards, we often see a flurry of deals throughout the second and third rounds.
Trading up is typically pricey, and teams pay a premium to do so. However, the top of the second round can be valuable because of the quality of player still available.
However, trading up can be tricky because the cost is typically a heavy premium over the value of the single pick. That doesn’t mean all trade ups are bad — active teams can move up and down the board to pick their spots and still gain picks and value overall.
Let’s look at each trade during Day 2, of the 2024 NFL Draft, who moved where and how much it cost to do so based on a more modern trade chart.
Value of Every Day 2 Trade
Rams get: No. 39
Rams get: No. 39 Panthers get: No. 52, No. 155, 2025 second-Round Pick
Panthers get: No. 52, No. 155, 2025 second-Round PickPremium: ~190 percent
During the Los Angeles Rams' F-them-picks era, the secret was: the Rams actually valued draft picks and had a high volume of Day 2 and 3 selections even without a first-round pick. The Rams were able to complement their stars with useful mid-round picks who fit into their system with a high success rate.
This move-up was arguably more aggressive than any of those trades that included first-rounders.
Picks Nos. 52 and 155 alone would be worth more than the 39th overall pick, and throwing in a 2025 second-round pick turned this trade from a typical overpay to a deal that cost Los Angeles nearly double what it gave up — and that’s while valuing the 2025 pick as the last in the round. Adding future picks, especially in non-quarterback moves outside of the first round, is the cardinal sin of trading up in the draft.
The Rams moved up for Florida State DT Braden Fiske three picks after the Washington Commanders drafted Jer’Zhan Newton. Los Angeles has a hole on its line next to Kobie Turner after Aaron Donald's retirement. While no one can replace Donald one-for-one, with the price the Rams paid for Fiske, they’ll need to hope he has an immediate impact on the line.
Eagles get: No. 40, No. 78, No. 152
Eagles get: No. 40, No. 78, No. 152 Commanders get: No. 50, No. 53, No. 162
Commanders get: No. 50, No. 53, No. 162Premium: 102 percent
If trading future picks is the cardinal sin of draft day trades, trading up with a pick swap is a best practice. By getting the 78th pick and moving up in the fifth round from pick No. 162 to No. 152, the Philadelphia Eagles came out nearly even in value for this trade up, which is a huge win.
The Eagles are typically one of the most active teams on draft day, and this move preceded a number of other trades that gave them more picks and capital. That allowed them to be aggressive and trade up for a player who was a value based on where he was expected to be drafted.
Philadelphia wanted Cooper DeJean and was able to jump over Green Bay to select the Iowa defensive back. DeJean was widely expected to be a first-round pick but fell to the second round. He has the ability to play both corner and safety, and that versatility should shine in a Vic Fangio defense.
After having one of the oldest defenses in the league last season, especially at cornerback with Darius Slay and James Bradberry, the Eagles used their first two picks to start to reshape that secondary with DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell.
Saints get: No. 41
Saints get: No. 41 Packers get: No. 45, No. 168, No. 190
Packers get: No. 45, No. 168, No. 190Premium: 141 percent
After the Eagles moved up for DeJean, the Green Bay Packers traded back and let the New Orleans Saints jump up for a cornerback as the last in a run of trades and defensive selections.
While the Packers missed out on a player they likely coveted, they ended up getting great value by adding a fifth- and sixth-round pick by dropping back four spots, a surplus of 1.40 on the dollar. Green Bay was still able to add a defensive player who could be a Day 1 starter with Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper.
It wouldn’t be a draft without the Saints making a trade up, but they got a cornerback who should be able to jump in and help the secondary.
Kool-Aid McKinstry had one of the highest rates of press coverage among this draft class (per Sports Info Solutions), and he excelled in both man and zone coverage. That should work in the New Orleans defense, either across from Marshon Lattimore or as his eventual replacement.
Panthers get: No. 46
Colts get: No. 52, No. 142, No. 155
Colts get: No. 52, No. 142, No. 155Premium: 163 percent
The Panthers got the 52nd pick from the Rams in the most lopsided trade of Day 2 and then traded that pick... in the second-most lopsided trade of the night.
Carolina jumped back up to select Texas running back Jonathon Brooks, making him the first player drafted at the position. No running back went for the rest of the round, with the next back selected by the Cardinals with the second pick of the third round.
Brooks has the talent to take over as the Panthers’ lead back but might have a slow start to his rookie season given that he's coming off a torn ACL in November.
Chiefs get: No. 63, No. 211
Chiefs get: No. 63, No. 211 49ers get: No. 64, No. 173
49ers get: No. 64, No. 173Premium: 110 percent
The Kansas City Chiefs jumped up one spot at the end of the second round to select BYU tackle Kingsley Suamataia.
The one-position move cost the Chiefs a 38-spot drop in the sixth round. That’s a fall Kansas City will be OK with given that Suamataia could be a Week 1 starter or could at least compete with Wanya Morris at left tackle.
Suamataia is a young and athletic but raw tackle who could develop into a plus starter. That development could be immediate, but with Morris on the roster and still a few veteran tackles on the market, the rookie can be brought along slowly if he’s not ready.
Jets get: No. 65
Jets get: No. 65 Panthers get: No. 72, No. 157
Premium: 132 percent
Without a second-round pick due to the Aaron Rodgers trade, the New York Jets moved up to the top of the third round to get a wide receiver for their quarterback after adding to the offensive line in the first round.
It cost the Jets a fifth-round pick to move up, but they have three fourth-round picks. Meanwhile, Carolina recovered some of the capital it lost after the earlier trade up, and the Panthers now have one pick in each round for Day 3.
New York's selection with this pick, Malachi Corley, is a smaller slot receiver who can be dangerous after the catch and could be the starter inside with Garret Wilson and Mike Williams in 11 personnel.
Texans get: No. 78
Texans get: No. 78 Eagles get: No. 94, No. 132
Premium: 143 percent
The Houston Texans haven't been a stranger to paying to move up in the draft under GM Nick Caserio. They used a late fourth-round pick to move up 16 spots in the third round.
Recently, those moves have been in service of getting defenders for coach DeMeco Ryans. This trade was to acquire USC safety Calen Bullock, a ball-hawking center fielder who could help transform the secondary and allow other players to play more to their strengths. Jalen Pitre could play more in the box, while Jimmie Ward could spend more time in the slot.
This pick, along with the pick of Kamari Lassiter in the second round, shows the Texans have made a strong effort to improve the secondary.
Meanwhile, the Eagles continue acquire picks and end up with net positive value with their earlier trade up.
Colts get: No. 79
Cardinals get: No. 82, No. 191
Cardinals get: No. 82, No. 191Premium: 126 percent
For years, the Indianapolis Colts had one of the league’s strongest offensive lines, but age and injuries have taken their toll. The line started to bounce back last season, and the Colts added depth through the draft with Pittsburgh’s Matt Goncalves.
Goncalves can play both tackle spots and could be a plus swing tackle and welcome insurance for injuries on the line. Braden Smith played well but hit the field in just 10 games last season.
The Arizona Cardinals moved back three spots and added a sixth-round pick, which they did not have, to go along with a fourth-round pick, two fifth-round picks and a seventh-round pick on Day 3.
49ers get: No. 86
Eagles get: No. 94, No. 132
Premium: 156 percent
The last trade of the round featured the Eagles getting more picks. The San Francisco 49ers gave up a late fourth-round pick to move up eight spots in the back end of the third round.
The 49ers drafted Kansas OL Dominick Puni, who ranked 41st overall on the SIS Big Board. Puni is an agile and versatile lineman who could start at either position on the right side of San Francisco’s line. His experience in a wide-zone offense should make for a seamless transition with the 49ers.
Philadelphia added that late fourth-round pick and entered Day 3 with three picks in the fourth round and three in the fifth.
