NFL Analysis
8/2/24
7 min read
The Cardinals Will Finally Unlock Kyler Murray's Full Potential in 2024 NFL Season
If you didn’t pay much attention to Kyler Murray last season, I wouldn’t blame you. By the time Murray returned from his torn ACL, it was Week 10. The Arizona Cardinals were 1-8 and coming off a 27-0 loss to the Cleveland Browns.
The Cardinals quadrupled their win total after Murray returned but still finished the season with just a 4-13 record. Even if just looking at those results, it would still be easy to ignore.
But during the second half of the season, Arizona ranked ninth in EPA per play, per TruMedia. Much of that came from an explosive run game that tied for first in EPA per play during that span. However, the quarterback played a part in that and also had some flashes in the passing game, helped by offensive coordinator Drew Petzig's scheme.
Murray was 13th in EPA per play among quarterbacks from Week 10 on and ranked 12th among qualified passers across the full season.
There were places where Murray definitely showed rust, but where he excelled is a great sign of what he could bring with a full season in 2024.
Short and Quick
No, we’re not describing Murray.
The best thing he did upon his return was his timing and accuracy on short throws. On attempts between 1-10 air yards, Murray ranked fourth in EPA per play (0.27). This was actually a continuation of where he was at the start of 2022 when he averaged 0.24 EPA per play on those throws.
These weren’t just quick RPO throws. Murray was working in rhythm to get the ball out, which was the biggest difference between his production of these throws in 2022 and 2023. During the 2022 season, Murray’s throws between 1-10 air yards were out in an average of 2.19 seconds after the snap.
In 2023, that rose to 2.51. Murray could drop back and find an open receiver, whether that was an early part of the progression or as a checkdown.
What was most encouraging was the spacing, along with Murray’s ball placement, that allowed for yards after the catch. On these short throws, Murray averaged 5.07 yards after the catch per completion, third behind Justin Fields (5.19) and Lamar Jackson (5.13).
Murray was able to find some space in the middle of the field…
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) August 2, 2024
…but he did his best work on throws outside the numbers.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) August 2, 2024
These might not register as highlight throws, but they make such a difference in this new offense. It’s a huge change from what Murray was working with under Kliff Kingsbury in an offense that didn’t have a lot of easy answers underneath.
In the previous four seasons, Murray ranked 33rd, 22nd, 16th, and 30th in yards after the catch per completion on those short throws.
Having those throws to lean on gives Murray something he didn’t have previously. Those easy buttons can take some of the weight off of the quarterback to carry the load of making something happen on his own, a place he often put in previous seasons.
Where The Rust Showed
While Murray got back into the groove on shorter passes, the rust was clearly there when he tried to do anything deeper. Along with Fields and Trevor Lawrence, Murray was one of three quarterbacks to have negative EPA on throws to the intermediate level of the field between 11-19 air yards. Murray also had the second-highest rate of inaccurate passes to that level of the field, behind only Kenny Pickett.
Intermediate passing has not been Murray’s strength throughout his career, typically around the 20s in EPA per play. However, his 2023 level of production was still well below what we have typically seen from the passer. However, we have seen Murray thrive in that area when he ranked sixth in EPA per play to that area in the 2021 season.
The rust also extended to deep passing, where Murray only completed 32 percent of his throws of 20 or more air yards. This was also the lowest rate of deep throws Murray had made during his career at just 10.4 percent, which ranked 22nd and below his previous career rate of 13.2 percent.
This has been a two-year blip for Murray. In 2022, he only completed 24.5 percent of his deep passes. But unlike the intermediate passing, Murray had been a plus deep thrower earlier in his career, including an early run in 2021 when he completed more than 60 percent of his passes during the first half of the year.
In that season, the Cardinals were more open and relied on fewer static go routes down the sideline.
That should be the case going forward with a more creative offensive system, even if it didn’t work out in 2023. There’s also something to the receivers Murray was targeting deep open his return last season.
His top deep threats were the 5-foot-9 Marquise Brown and 5-foot-7 Rondale Moore. There’s not a lot of margin for error if those players have not sprung wide open.
Here come the tight ends
Few quarterbacks had more success throwing to tight ends than Murray last season. He was fourth in yards per attempt when targeting the position, and he tied with Desmond Ridder for the highest target rate to tight ends at 34 percent.
Tight ends were the key to Murray’s efficiency because the Cardinals struggled elsewhere. Only Ridder threw to wide receivers less often, while Patrick Mahomes and Joshua Dobbs were the only other quarterbacks to target wide receivers on fewer than half of their passes.
Trey McBride emerged as a top tight end, finishing the season second at the position in yards per route run (2.04) behind George Kittle (2.26). McBride was often open and used on delayed releases into the flat and had success on screens, but he was also a good route runner who could win at the catch point.
Trey McBride: fun pic.twitter.com/Cvq12LBBEb
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) August 2, 2024
The Cardinals also schemed some open shots, like this deep catch against the 49ers.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) August 2, 2024
It wasn’t just McBride.
Elijah Higgins, a 2023 sixth-round pick of the Miami Dolphins who was cut prior to the regular season and picked up by Arizona, had some flashes late in the year, showing how the Cardinals' offense could scheme up some openings.
Murray played the highest rate of snaps under center in his career (25.5 percent), and many of those featured play-action with heavier formations on the field. There were also a ton of bootlegs that allowed the quarterback room to run when he had it.
Kyler can still scoot pic.twitter.com/DSGDEvs4Nq
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) August 2, 2024
The Cardinals will likely lean into the position for 2024 after they added Tip Reiman from Illinois in the third round.
How Does 2024 Shape Up?
The short passing and tight-end-heavy offense provide enough of a foundation to set a pretty high floor. Murray was already one of the least efficient quarterbacks on throws over 11 yards last season, but he was still an above-average passer by EPA per play.
In past years, as the short, horizontal nature of the passing game was a detriment to the offense, this version under Petzing is an asset.
How good this offense can be depends on how quickly Murray gets that deeper passing timing back. It hasn’t been an issue in training camp, so this practice time could be helping get him back into a rhythm.
It will also help that the Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. fourth overall to be the team’s top receiver. With Murray throwing to the shorter group of receivers last season, that won’t be the case with this group of tight ends, Harrison, and Michael Wilson.
If there’s even a little bit of improvement on some of the deeper throws — again, those haven’t been extensive issues previously — there could be a lot to work with offensively in Arizona.
