Betting
8/15/24
5 min read
2024 NFL Award Predictions: Who Will Win Defensive Player of the Year?
While offenses are all the rage across the NFL, defensive stars have become the best athletes on the field at any given time. A one-man wrecking crew gives defenses the chance to give even Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks fits. Pass rushers have become the most valuable defensive players, so it's no surprise the Defensive Player of the Year betting odds reflect that.
The increased importance of the passing game has led to a pass-rusher winning the award in nine of the last 10 years. Will that trend continue in 2024, or will a defensive back make their way into the mix?
We will look at the top Defensive Player of the Year odds and our three favorite candidates for the value.
>> Other Award Predictions: OROY
Defensive Player of the Year Betting Odds
Here are the top Defensive Player of the Year betting odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Micah Parsons, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys (+500)
- Myles Garrett, EDGE, Cleveland Browns (+600)
- T.J. Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers (+750)
- Nick Bosa, EDGE, San Francisco 49ers (+850)
- Maxx Crosby, EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders (+1000)
- Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Detroit Lions (+1600)
- Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs (+2500)
- Josh Hines-Allen, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
- Kyle Hamilton, SAF, Baltimore Ravens (+3000)
- Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Houston Texans (+3200)
It's not surprising that the three most recent winners are well-represented in the top four favorites behind Micah Parsons.
Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, and T.J. Watt claimed the Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2023, 2022, and 2021, respectively. If each is healthy throughout this fall, there's no question each can win again.
Garrett is the single most dominant pass-rusher in the sport, and every advanced metric supports that he makes more of an impact per snap than anyone else. He doesn't have Watt's peak sack numbers, with Garrett peaking at 16 at this point in his career.
However, the three-time All-Pro defender is expected to lead what could be the league's best defensive unit in 2024.
Myles Garrett's top 7 pass-rush clips from 2018 #Browns pic.twitter.com/rbJTlPQAiC
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) July 1, 2019
Watt is another special presence, leading the NFL in sacks in three of the last four years. His counting stats are unbeatable, and the four-time All-Pro is the best closer at the point of attack in the league. There's not much else to say except Watt is a force who just has to stay healthy to be in the mix to win.
Bosa's inclusion is partly because he splits the needle between Garrett's elite advanced metrics and Watt's higher sack volume. Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks in 2022, but his number dropped to 10.5 last year.
That doesn't mean Bosa was any worse at generating pressure and impactful plays, but he didn't finish the same. Oddsmakers are optimistic his process will continue to lead to huge sack totals, and I am with them.
Parsons is the chalk favorite above each of these stars, and the momentum seems to be in the place for him to snag the award. He finished second in the race in each of his first two years and then fell to third in 2023.
Maybe there's voter fatigue, but Parsons has consistently produced sacks, tackles for loss, quarterback hits, and forced turnovers.
Defensive Player of the Year Prediction
Predicting Parsons, Garrett, or Watt is relatively easy. It's not hard to imagine that each continues to demolish blockers and post huge numbers. Each can justifiably earn a bet, and the odds seem fairly valued and in proper order.
The best two long shot bets outside of the favorites are Aidan Hutchinson and Danielle Hunter. These two are quite different in profile, as Hutchinson is now entering his prime, and Hunter is an established veteran on a new team.
Hutchinson is my favorite pick.
Aidan Hutchinson baits the blocker by flashing the inside hand, then spins inside for the strip sack. Have a pass rush plan! #PassRush #OnePride pic.twitter.com/15a56nxAPQ
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) December 31, 2023
Hutchinson stands out beyond his 11.5 sacks because he increased his tackles for loss from nine as a rookie to 14 last year. His quarterback hits more than doubled from 15 to 33. Hutchinson is also a threat to force turnovers, nabbing four interceptions and three forced fumbles in his first two years.
It's unfair to expect Hutchinson to make a similar jump in some of those metrics because he's already close to the elite range. An incremental increase and jump in total sacks would pit Hutchinson among the favorites. The Lions are also a fan and media favorite, so they'll have plenty of momentum to win.
Hunter has the longest odds of anyone within the top 10, and on the surface, it'll be tough for him to win. He's never made a First-Team All-Pro squad and turns 30 in October.
But he's coming off a career-high 16.5 sack season and is now on Houston. The Texans' profile is rising, and playing under DeMeco Ryans should ensure he remains one of the most productive finishers in the game.
