NFL Analysis
9/11/24
12 min read
5 Teams That Should Be Worried Most After 2024 NFL Week 1
A Week 1 loss doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time for NFL teams to push the panic button. But I always wanted to win the opener for the team’s increased confidence and to lower the pressure in Week 2 of having to avoid a 0-2 start.
There is so much emphasis on the regular season opener that there is a tendency to overreact after a win or loss. Will the Patriots finish with a better record than the Bengals after their road upset on Sunday? It is highly doubtful.
Here are five teams that lost in Week 1 and should be the most worried, considering in part their high expectations entering the season (which eliminates teams like the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants).
Surprisingly, three of the teams on the list are in the AFC North, which most people pegged as the league’s best division entering the season. Not so much in Week 1.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
The 27-20 road defeat of the Baltimore Ravens by the two-time Super Bowl champion Chiefs was not disastrous or embarrassing for Baltimore.
The problem is that it was a potential statement game for the Ravens, last year’s AFC top seed, who lost at home to the Chiefs in the AFC title game. The statement coming out of the opener is that Kansas City is still the better team, and by a more significant margin, given the difficulties for the Ravens’ revamped offensive line.
Baltimore has three new starters on the line after the departures of guards Kevin Zeitler (a Pro Bowler in 2023), John Simpson, and right tackle Morgan Moses. Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele started at the guard spots, with Patrick Mekari getting the nod ahead of second-round rookie Roger Rosengarten at right tackle.
As a result, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson was under a lot of pressure and had to scramble often to evade sacks. After averaging nine carries per game in 2023, he ran 16 times (for 122 yards), and the majority were not designed runs. Jackson missed Monday’s practice due to being sore after taking so many hits.
It’s not the formula the Ravens want for their quarterback, who has dealt with injuries in past seasons (he missed 11 games combined in 2021 and 2022).
Derrick Henry was the team’s big free agent addition this season but only rushed for 46 yards on 13 carries (3.5-yard average) in Week 1. Granted, that was against last year’s No. 2 defense. Still, the Ravens must get the offensive line playing better in future weeks, starting with their home opener this week against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have star defensive linemen Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins.
Henry and backup Justice Hill may have an opportunity after the Raiders gave up 176 rushing yards to the Chargers, with coach Jim Harbaugh emphasizing the running game in an opening win.
Baltimore also suffered significant free agency losses on defense, including Pro Bowl LB Patrick Queen, top pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney, and team interceptions leader Geno Stone. The defense held the Chiefs to 72 rushing yards, but Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards.
Of course, Mahomes is the league's best quarterback, so it’s no surprise that he had success. Still, the defense appears to have taken a step back.
The Ravens have a recent history of doing a great job in player talent acquisition, but we’ll see if they can repeat as AFC North champs, which will be a challenge with so many new starters.
As for making a statement that they can supplant the Chiefs as AFC champs and reach their first Super Bowl since 2012 (which would be Jackson’s first Super Bowl), no such luck in Week 1.
>> READ MORE: How Bad Is Baltimore's Offense?
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Something is amiss with the Cincinnati Bengals in the early going of the past few years. They had the most surprising Week 1 defeat in a 16-10 upset at home by the New England Patriots, who were 4-13 last season.
QB Joe Burrow had only 164 passing yards in the opener. He was missing WR Tee Higgins (hamstring), and his fellow WR Ja’Marr Chase was held to 62 receiving yards after he missed training camp while seeking an extension that hasn’t materialized.
The Patriots badly beat the Bengals in the trenches, who outrushed them 170-70 and had three sacks of Burrow, while the Bengals got to Jacoby Brissett only once.
With the Chiefs up next in Kansas City and Higgins likely to miss the game, it looks like an 0-2 start for Cincinnati, which would be a repeat of last season. The Bengals rebounded somewhat but couldn’t quite reach the playoffs as they finished 9-8 with Burrow missing the last seven games due to his wrist injury.
In 2022, Cincinnati also dropped their opener at home to the Steelers when Burrow threw four interceptions, but it recovered that year to win the division at 12-4 and make it to the AFC title game.
The good news for the Bengals is Pittsburgh was the only Week 1 winner among division foes. They need to get Higgins back, stop the run better, and keep Burrow healthy while he returns to his Pro Bowl-caliber production level to win the AFC North as many predicted (including me) and make a postseason run.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Is the Cleveland Browns’ buyer’s remorse growing even greater regarding the sub-par play of QB Deshaun Watson? He was awful in the opening-day home thrashing by the Dallas Cowboys. He also faces another civil lawsuit with sexual assault allegations.
It didn’t help Watson on opening day that Cleveland was missing both starting tackles — Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin — setting up a field day for Micah Parsons (one sack and five QB hits), DeMarcus Lawrence (two sacks and four QB hits) and others against backup tackles James Hudson and Dewand Jones.
Watson completed 24 of 45 for 169 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and was sacked six times among 22 pressures. Even when he could throw, he looked uncomfortable and often threw short or behind his receivers.
No. 1 WR Amari Cooper had only two catches for 16 yards. Watson scrambled five times for 39 yards, which is not a good thing with his injury history, including missing the final eight games last season with a shoulder injury.
Watson has played only 13 games for the Browns due to a suspension and injuries since they traded multiple high draft picks and signed him to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract over five years in 2022.
His career passer rating was 100.8 entering this season, but it’s been a dismal 79.1 and 84.3 in his limited play the past two seasons, and he starts with a 51.1 rating in Week 1. Watson’s contract goes through 2026, with the Browns sitting on a $64 million cap number this year and the same amount the next two years with too much dead money to jettison him.
Cleveland’s top-ranked defense from 2023 played decent in forcing four field goals and allowing only two touchdowns (plus the Browns gave up a 60-yard punt return TD) but didn’t force any Dallas turnovers.
Myles Garrett and his defensive cohorts need more help from the offense. They also didn’t get it in the 45-14 wild-card loss last season at Houston, when Joe Flacco threw two pick-6s, but the defense also gave up three touchdown passes to C.J. Stroud in that resounding defeat.
The Browns could get Wills and Conklin back for their Week 2 game at Jacksonville, but Pro Bowl TE David Njoku may be out with an ankle sprain. Cleveland’s backs had only 54 yards rushing against Dallas, so it is hoping for a mid-season return of top back Nick Chubb from his knee surgery.
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski has a lot to be concerned about starting with Watson, who must find a way to elevate his level of play back to his Houston Pro Bowl years, even with the injuries on offense.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Speaking of buyer’s remorse after betting the house on a veteran quarterback, the Atlanta Falcons have to be feeling skittish this week after the dismal performance of $180 million free agent signee Kirk Cousins in the opening loss at home to the Steelers.
Granted, Cousins was coming off his Achilles injury, and it was his first start in a new offense against a good Steelers defense, but he looked like a shadow of the four-time Pro Bowl quarterback he was in Washington and Minnesota.
Cousins passed for only 155 yards and threw two costly interceptions, including the game-killer with 2:47 remaining and the Falcons trailing 15-10.
Atlanta has one of the league’s highest-paid offensive lines, but the Steelers defense had two sacks and seven hits on Cousins, along with the two picks, and Bijan Robinson was held to 68 rushing yards.
The Atlanta defense allowed 137 yards on the ground (57 by QB Justin Fields), and Fields completed 74 percent of his passes. The Steelers had 11 more minutes in time of possession, which is not a good formula for the Falcons heading into Week 2, which includes a difficult road test on Monday night at Philadelphia.
With quarterback the glaring problem last season for a 7-10 team, Atlanta was picked by many (including me) to win the NFC South after signing Cousins to go with a seemingly strong supporting cast on offense and a defense that ranked 11th last season.
Now, just one week in, it’s looking more tenuous for the Falcons, with Tampa Bay and New Orleans winning big on opening day (albeit against Washington and Carolina, respectively. Plus, Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr played a lot better than Cousins in Week 1.
New coach Raheem Morris said Cousins’ poor performance in the opener was likely due to “some rust from not playing for so long.” He better quickly work through that rust with the Chiefs up after the Eagles and big divisional games against the Saints and Bucs.
The good news for Atlanta is it'll be home in Weeks 3, 4, and 5, but that didn’t help them against the Steelers.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
It wasn’t a shock to see the Green Bay Packers lose to the Eagles in Brazil last Friday. They played respectably in an evenly matched game. It was disappointing for the Packers to lose a game in which they were plus two in turnovers.
Green Bay rushed for 163 yards (84 by free agent signee Josh Jacobs), and Jordan Love threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns with one pick. The Packers' defense forced three Jalen Hurts turnovers but allowed 410 total yards and the Eagles controlled time of possession.
Expectations are high in Titletown after the Packers won six of eight down the stretch last season before walloping the Cowboys on the road in the wild-card round and almost knocking off the 49ers in the divisional round. Love is a big reason for the team and fan base's optimism, as his fantastic late-season run led to a $55 million per year extension.
Love is also the main reason the team should be worried after his Week 1 MCL injury, which will keep him out for three to six weeks. It could’ve been worse, but in the highly competitive NFC North, the Packers were the only Week 1 losers.
>> READ MORE: FA, Trade Options to Replace Love
Malik Willis gets the first shot at replacing Love (with Sean Clifford moving up to No. 2). As the Packers wait on Love to heal, they’ll host Indianapolis this week, travel to Tennessee, and have the Vikings in the first divisional game at Lambeau in Week 4. They hope Love is a quick healer and can make it back on the shorter end of the three to six-week timetable.
The running game and defense will be asked to step up and support Willis, who has only been with the team for two weeks since being acquired in a trade with Tennessee. He has just three career starts with a 1-2 record and no touchdown passes yet. Willis has an ugly 49.4 career passer rating in 11 appearances, but he has run for 144 yards and one touchdown.
If Willis helps the Packers weather the storm until Love’s return, it will be a great return on the 2025 seventh-round pick they sent in the trade.
Clifford was a fifth-round pick in 2023 and backed up Love last season, but the Packers couldn’t have been too excited about him when they made the move to get Willis.
So it’s a nervous time for coach Matt LaFleur and the team as they try to stay in the NFC North race until Love returns. Green Bay doesn’t face Detroit until Weeks 9 and 14, so Love should be back in the saddle well before then.
But LaFleur also knows knee injuries can be tricky, and Love needs better protection so he doesn’t take hits like the one Jalen Carter and Josh Sweat put on him in the final seconds in Sao Paulo.
