NFL Analysis
9/25/24
20 min read
2024 NFL Week 4 QB Power Rankings: Will Josh Allen Overtake Top Spot?
It’s been a weird year for quarterback play. There have been some great performances, but there has been a lot left to be desired, too. Quarterback production is down overall, thanks to some good defense across the league, which makes it even more important to focus on the process of these quarterbacks and what they’ve been tasked with doing so far.
A reminder: these rankings are not strictly based on three weeks of performance. While a quarterback could have a great start to the season, that doesn’t automatically make him the league’s best starter. We use some stats in here, but this is also not a ranking of quarterbacks based on EPA, QBR, or any other single stat.
These rankings are based on a mixture of film, advanced stats, and cap hits. For the way we’re ranking quarterbacks this year, we will ask how much a quarterback plays into his team’s ability to win games — how much easier does the quarterback make things for his offense?
Does the quarterback create the structure for the offense? Does he make the coach's job harder by having to scheme around him? Is he just a product of what surrounds him? These are the types of questions we’re trying to answer, and they will determine the order of this list.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings.
Here are the rankings heading into Week 4. All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
NFL Week 4 QB Power Rankings
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs 
Last Week: 1 
It’s tough, but we will have to get used to this version of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense through at least the early part of the regular season. Mahomes will smartly distribute the ball while Rashee Rice takes on a bigger role on the offense, and the Chiefs will figure out what can and can’t be done with Xavier Worthy.
Unlike last season’s feeling-out process, this year's has been efficient. Mahomes is still sixth in EPA per play despite ranking second-lowest in average depth of target (5.2) and average depth of completion (3.2).
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 
Last Week: 2
This might be the closest Josh Allen has ever been to surpassing Mahomes. Allen is doing all of the short-area safe throws that highlight his development and processing while also having those ridiculous Josh Allen plays that turn nothing into something.
After Monday night, in which Allen threw four touchdowns to four different players and completely commanded the game from the first snap, he leads the league in EPA per play and success rate. His 60.4 percent success rate is the sixth-highest for a quarterback through three weeks since 2000.
Micah Parsons did not look like he was having a good time defending Lamar Jackson runs pic.twitter.com/Q1ZIJyngfO
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) September 23, 2024
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
Last Week: 3
The Ravens leaned on the run against the Cowboys, and Lamar Jackson played a big part with 87 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Because of the work of Jackson and Derrick Henry, especially in the zone read game, the Ravens did not have to throw often. But when they did, Jackson was on.
Jackon’s skill set provides so many options for an offense to pivot and lean on whatever is working to win games.
4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams 
Last Week: 4
Down multiple linemen, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford played about as well as any quarterback could have in his situation to lead an upset victory against the 49ers. Stafford’s ability to manage a muddy pocket, especially against interior pressure, while still getting the ball down the field was on display.
Stafford had a 10.5-yard aDOT against San Francisco and was willing to take shots to create explosive plays through the air. The deep throw to Tutu Atwell to set up the game-tying touchdown was a perfect example. A combination of Stafford and Sean McVay gives the offense a high floor, even while pieces crumble around.
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys 
Last Week: 5
It’s been a rough start for the Cowboys, but that’s not on the quarterback. Dak Prescott continued to play well, but with the Ravens controlling the ball on the ground, any little slip-up was amplified. That included a fumble from CeeDee Lamb inside the 10 that could have kept the game close at the start of the second quarter.
When the fourth quarter came around, Prescott was slinging it and managed to bring the score closer by getting the ball out quicker and working the short and intermediate area, the way this offense should work, but it was realistically too late for those plays to matter.
The loss was not on the quarterback.
6. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 
Last Week: 6
Playing against a Brian Flores defense is a battle for any quarterback, and C.J. Stroud was the latest victim. Flores picked apart some of Houston’s tendencies, like the willingness to leave a tight end on an island against edge rushers. That led to a ton of quick pressure, and Stroud was under duress the entire game.
If there is a concern for the Houston offense, it is that some of those tendencies have been easy for defenses to take advantage of early in the season. Stroud overcame that and did going back to last season, which is a point for the quarterback instead of against him.
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers 
Last Week: 7
Justin Herbert entered Week 3 with an injury and then left early after a sack. In between, he was typical Herbert. Given the state of the Pittsburgh defense and general quarterback play around the league, a typical Herbert performance will do.
He’s still managing an inconsistent offensive line and mostly inexperienced receivers. His touchdown pass to Quentin Johnston was open because the corner jumped the flat route, convinced the ball would go short.
8. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 
Last Week: 8
Joe Burrow had one of the best quarterbacking performances of the week on Monday Night Football against Washington. Unfortunately, arguably the best quarterbacking performance came from Burrow’s opponent.
The only drive that didn’t lead to Cincinnati points came from a missed field goal. Other than that, Burrow was able to distribute the ball well and took advantage of whenever Washington went single-high.
After an up-and-down first two weeks, any suggestion that Burrow did not do enough in Week 3 is laughable.
>> READ MORE: Can Bengals Climb Out of Their 0-3 Hole?
9. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals 
Last Week: 9
The Arizona offense continues to be fun with Kyler Murray at the helm. He is a plus scrambler and thrower on the run, with plenty of plays coming in structure. Since the Lions focused on stopping the run game, there was a heavy load on Murray to move the ball on the ground and through the air.
Detroit still made it a bit difficult to hit some of the intermediate and deep passes where Murray has feasted this year, but he was mostly good at knowing where the ball needed to go. His interception was left short, allowing the safety to get under the ball, but that has not been a constant issue for Murray this year.
10. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks 
Last Week: 13 
A high pass to Zach Charbonnet that turned into a tipped interception to avoid taking a safety was a big mistake, but Geno Smith followed it up with a 71-yard touchdown throw to DK Metcalf.
Smith just remains a high-level processor in the pocket, and he’s been winning from there all season. The offensive line hasn’t made that easy — he was pressured on 43 percent of dropbacks against Miami — but he had 10.1 yards per attempt and completed 90.1 percent of his passes when not pressured.
11. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets 
Last Week: 14
Aaron Rodgers takes a decent jump this week after answering some of our questions about his play on Thursday night.
We wrote about those after the game. If he can keep that up, he’ll keep rising up these rankings.
12. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles 
Last Week: 11 
Jalen Hurts kicks off the tier of quarterbacks who are mostly impacted by their surroundings. There are times when Hurts can play well and be a catalyst for the offense, but he remains a beneficiary of the players around him. That was the case as he leaned on Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert against the Saints.
Decision-making has been hit or miss for Hurts this year. He completed 76.3 percent of his passes while he held onto the ball and eventually found an underneath option. There was also the end zone interception that didn’t feature the sharpest route by DeVonta Smith but was a ball that helped the safety in front of the receiver.
The extension part of Hurts’s game has also been limited this year — averaging -0.46 EPA per play and 2.9 yards per attempt when outside of the pocket.
13. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers 
Last Week: 13
Brock Purdy held up fairly well in a game without most of the supporting cast. Even without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, Purdy still had a productive day, thanks in part to a massive day from Jauan Jennings. Jennings bailed out a bunch of contested catches and took over as the go-to option.
There was a throw late in the game on a first-and-20 that Purdy could have ripped to Brandon Aiyuk but was confused by the coverage. If we’re wondering what keeps Purdy from being closer to the top tier of quarterbacks, it’s those types of hesitations. The best quarterbacks in the league are letting that throw go.
14. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars 
Last Week: 13
The results make it increasingly difficult to make a case for Trevor Lawrence. Even so, the process of what Lawrence was showing would make it easier. That is now increasingly hard to defend. His interception early in the game was one of the worst throws he’ll make.
However, the degree of difficulty is also high in this offense, where even the basics look like a struggle. Instead of attacking safeties and linebackers, the Jaguars decided to live on deep shots down the sideline. It’s so hard to live that way, and there is nothing Lawrence can do or has done to improve this environment.
>> READ MORE: Jags Need Total Overhaul to Save Lawrence
15. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions 
Last Week: 15
There were parts of the offense that worked again — Jared Goff worked the short passing game and had a 60.7 percent success rate in Week 3 — but there were still negative plays Goff avoids at his best.
His two sacks derailed drives, and the interception was a terrible throw in the middle of the field to a defender he didn’t see. Goff still doesn’t deal well with pressure and could now be without center Frank Ragnow for a while.
16. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons 
Last Week: 20
Each week, we’re seeing a bit more of pre-injury Kirk Cousins. There hasn’t been anything spectacular, but Cousins is coming to terms with his current physical status and getting used to playing with it. He’s getting the ball out quickly, and he had a tough task against a blitz-heavy Steve Spagnuolo defense.
If he keeps improving steadily during the season, that’s a quarterback the Falcons can work with.
17. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints 
Last Week: 18
We got our first 2024 glimpse of Derek Carr under pressure and without the benefit of a 50 percent play-action rate. There were still a lot of deep throws (20 percent of his passes went 20 or more air yards), but they were forced, including the interception that ended the game.
Carr lived underneath on quick throws while anticipating pressure — it didn’t help that center Erik McCoy left the game early — but still only completed 56 percent of his passes. It looked closer to the quarterback we’ve seen for most of his career rather than the player who lit it up during the first two weeks.
18. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings 
Last Week: 19
Sam Darnold has settled into his role in Minnesota. When Justin Jefferson is open — or only kind of open — throw it to him. Knowing Jefferson is an option makes things like his scramble out of the pocket before the nine-yard touchdown to Jefferson much easier to control.
There’s also so much to like about how the Vikings are making Darnold’s job easier, like moving Jefferson around so he doesn’t have to line up against Derek Stingley when playing Houston. Darnold will make some throws, and this system has allowed those throws to work so far.
It’s at a point where even strip sacks are turning into eight-yard gains.
19. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Last Week: 17
A week after taking five sacks against Detroit, Baker Mayfield took seven against Denver. The Broncos blitzed heavily, which messed with Mayfield’s rhythm and timing in the pocket. He went back to bailing early in an attempt to avoid pressure, and that’s when he’s gotten himself into trouble throughout his career.
Through three weeks, Mayfield has the highest pressure-to-sack rate in the league (37.1 percent). That’s concerning when there aren’t explosive plays to make up for it, which there were none of in Week 3.
20. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders 
Last Week: 23
If we’re looking for quarterbacks who can transcend the offense and lift those around him, we got that from Jayden Daniels on Monday night. He was adamant about going for a late fourth down and then the touchdown throw to Terry McLaurin to ice the game was incredible.
Daniels has played well within the offense, using his legs and short passes, but that opened up against Cincinnati with more throws down the field and more on the run outside the pocket. Those were the boxes we wanted Daniels to check, and he did.
>> READ MORE: Daniels Put The NFL on Notice
21. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts 
Last Week: 16
The Colts can live with some of Anthony Richardson’s misses when the otherworldly throws accompany them, but after Week 1, those haven’t been as common. Richardson is trying too hard to make a perfect pass because of the misses, and that’s making throws worse.
Because Richardson and the Colts are so fixated on his work from the pocket, he’s not running much to pick up positive plays, and that eliminates an easy button that could keep the offense moving. There’s a balance for all of these things to come together, but Richardson hasn’t found it yet.
22. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears 
Last Week: 22
Things aren’t going right for the Chicago offense, but watch Caleb Williams closely, and it’s hard to put him at fault. At first glance, it looks like Williams is bailing and trying to create out of structure, but on closer look, he doesn’t have much of an option, and he’s doing what he can to make things work.
There are definitely still some misses, but the design of the Bears offense isn’t as helpful as we might have expected at the start of the season. The run game is nonexistent.
Williams is starting to figure out what he can do to compensate — his connection to Rome Odunze is growing — and each week, we’re seeing a bit more of what he can provide to the offense.
>> READ MORE: Is History Repeating With Williams' Development
23. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers 
Last Week: 24
We’ve gotten a bizarro Justin Fields so far this season. He’s living in the short area (only 9.3 percent of his passes have traveled 20 or more air yards), and he has limited mistakes from bad sacks and interceptions. That’s worked, but it’s also limited the big plays. That takes a bit away from what Fields can be.
In Week 3, Fields played from the pocket on 91 percent of his dropbacks. It’s great to see that development and the game slowing down for Fields in some parts, but the dial might have turned too far the other way.
24. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers 
Last Week: 28
Andy Dalton came into Carolina’s lineup and immediately proved the offense could work. There was a stark contrast between what Dalton accomplished and what Bryce Young did in the first two weeks of the season.
It wasn’t just that Dalton cleared the low bar of Young’s play — he was making some throws. This somehow looked like the best version of Andy Dalton. He won't finish eighth in EPA per play every week, but the baseline Dalton provides should make the rest of Carolina's offense functional.
25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants 
Last Week: 25
Daniel Jones will have a decent year if he just keeps throwing to Malik Nabers. On one drive against Cleveland, Nabers took down a contested catch that looked like it could have easily been intercepted, and then he hauled in a high throw for a touchdown in the back of the end zone a play after Jones airmailed a pass to his open tight end.
Jones did hold up fairly well against Cleveland’s pressure — 52 percent pressure rate with two sacks — but relied on quick, short passing that didn’t provide much value.
26. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots 
Last Week: 21
We’re starting to see some of the limits of Jacoby Brissett’s game and how that works with the Patriots' set up. Brissett was pressured on 52.2 percent of dropbacks against the Jets, and there wasn’t much for Brissett to do. The Jets were in the backfield quickly and charging in off play-action early.
Brissett is here to take the pressure and hits until the time comes for Drake Maye, which could be sooner than later.
27. Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers 
Last Week: 29
The Packers still spent Malik Willis’ second start making things easy for the quarterback, but the offense was opened up. Willis had more success dropping back and was clearly more confident in what he was doing from the pocket. He completed a deep throw to Christian Watson and also ripped a long third down pass in the middle of the field to Romeo Doubs. These are throws that were not on the table when he was in Tennessee.
Willis’s starting stint might end soon — Jordan Love has been limited in practice — but the shift in quarterback from where Willis was even just this preseason with the Titans until now is astonishing.
>> READ MORE: How Willis Saved NFL Career, Packers' Season
28. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos 
Last Week: 31
Bo Nix had his best day as a pro, and the Buccaneers played into his game. Tampa Bay sent the blitz at Nix often but played such soft coverage behind it, allowing Nix to get the ball out on the quick, short passes that he wanted. Because of that, the pressure didn’t get home. It was an easy way to beat these blitzes. Nix did not take a sack in the game.
There were a few deeper throws mixed in, and Nix continued to use his legs when he could. This was the type of offense the Broncos want to run, and we’ll see if opposing defenses let them play into that like Tampa Bay did.
29. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders 
Last Week: 26
Gardner Minshew was benched for Aidan O’Connell late in the Raiders’ game against the Panthers. Putting Minshew in obvious passing situations while trailing is not ideal, and that’s where Las Vegas was almost instantly against Carolina.
In those situations, Minshew will try to create something, but he’s not that good of a creator, which leads to trouble. O’Connell came in and looked fairly clean in garbage time. Minshew’s leash might not be that long.
30. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans 
Last Week: 30
Will Levis started the game against the Packers with a nice deep throw off of play-action from under center. Those throws are always sprinkled in for Levis, but the longer the game goes, the more opportunities he gets to make a mistake. Those mistakes haven’t gone away.
He telegraphed an outside throw to DeAndre Hopkins that Jaire Alexander jumped for a pick-6. He was strip-sacked late in the third quarter, though his tackle did not even get a hand on the defender. The game was decided by the time Xavier McKinney had his fourth-quarter interception, but that was a deep pass that hung up and allowed the safety to come in and take it.
31. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns 
Last Week: 31
Cleveland’s offensive line struggled, but Deshaun Watson made it worse. He’s been indecisive on reads, holding onto the ball when it should be out. He was hit 14 times against the Giants, the second-most for a player this year. The most was Watson’s 17 hits against Dallas in Week 1. He no longer has the ability to create.
Watson also has struggled from empty, a package that was supposed to play to his strengths under Ken Dorsey. He was 2-of-5 for 3.0 yards per attempt and a sack from empty in Week 3. He has a 28.6 percent success rate out of empty despite the most dropbacks.
To this point, running the Stefanski version of the offense has been a struggle, and the added elements that were supposed to help Watson have been just as bad.
32. Skylar Thompson, Miami Dolphins 
Last Week: 32
This was rough. Skylar Thompson was pressured on half of his dropbacks despite the Seahawks barely blitzing. The offensive line was a mess, and Thompson did not have enough in his game to make up for it. Whenever he tried to extend a play, a defender was in his face.
Thompson eventually left the game and was replaced by Tim Boyle. It’s still unclear if Thompson will start in Week 4, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Tyler Huntley was the Miami quarterback in these rankings next week.
