NFL Analysis
10/2/24
6 min read
Green Bay Packers' Jayden Reed Is NFL's Next Star Slot Receiver
It's only his second NFL season, but Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed already looks like one of the best slots in the league.
Reed had a career-high 139 receiving yards and a touchdown on seven catches in the loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Through four games, Reed is sixth in the league with 336 receiving yards but also has another 91 yards on the ground. He has the second-most scrimmage yards among wide receivers with 427, behind only Houston Texans star Nico Collins.
At his current pace, Reed will finish the season with more than 1,800 scrimmage yards and 13 total touchdowns. His impact is felt all over the field, with the analytics and film showing he's already established himself as a top-tier slot receiver.
A dominant Slot Receiver
He's only 5-foot-11 and 187 pounds, but Reed has asserted himself as Green Bay's most reliable receiver.
Jordan Love's return against Minnesota highlighted how much the young quarterback trusts Reed. In the two games this season where they've played together, Reed has been targeted 14 times for 11 catches, 277 yards, and two receiving touchdowns.
Acme Packing Company's Justis Mosqueda pointed out that Reed is the league's top slot receiver in adjusted yards and adjusted yards per route run value, leading the league in both metrics by a wide margin.
Other advanced metrics highlight Reed's dominance in the slot. RBSDM has credited Reed with 21.8 expected points added as a receiver in the two games he's played with Love under center.
According to Next Gen Stats, Reed is tied for fifth in the NFL with 4.5 yards of average separation per target. It's not like he's winning with underneath routes to create that kind of separation, either. His Week 4 route running chart shows Reed running flats, outs, digs, seams, and hitches.
Reed is one of the league's most effective and efficient slot receivers.
Compared to all players with at least 10 targets, here's where Reed ranks in reps, specifically in the slot for yards per route run and first downs generated.
The Packers are willing to let Reed run a full route tree. But even when he can't create separation, Love hasn't been afraid to throw his way. According to Pro Football Focus, Reed is a perfect 4-for-4 in contested catch situations despite being on the smaller end of NFL wide receivers.
His contested touchdown against the Vikings gave the Packers some much-needed life right before halftime.
Jayden Reed is a perfect 4-for-4 on contested catch situations this year. pic.twitter.com/k1yFp19Up4
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) October 2, 2024
This contested-catch ability also showed up in college at Michigan State. In his three seasons with the Spartans, Reed had a contested catch rate of 56 percent, catching 32 passes in those situations.
It's not just the ability but also the toughness with Reed. He has been listed as questionable multiple times in his two-year career with chest, toe, and calf injuries. He was even on the injury report for Week 4 with calf and quad injuries. Despite all of those knocks, Reed has only missed one of 21 possible games in his career.
There's a reason why Matt LaFleur calls him a "war daddy."
The Next Deebo?
It's not just Reed's ability as a slot receiver that makes him so special. He's also such a versatile weapon that he's become an extension of Green Bay's run game.
Reed has terrific YAC ability, ranking third in the league in YAC per reception with 9.7 yards, according to Next Gen Stats. His vision, balance, and explosiveness also translate when he's schemed up as a rusher.
Through 20 NFL games, Reed has 17 carries for 210 yards and three touchdowns. He's averaging an absurd 12.4 yards per carry, and it seems like his workload on the ground is only going to continue based on its effectiveness.
Reed's biggest rushing attempt of the year came in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. All of the traits that make him dangerous after the catch also show up on this play, with him finding space with his vision and then using his balance to shed off would-be tacklers for a 33-yard score.
Jayden Reed is so much fun as a runner. pic.twitter.com/DwCCG86Jjf
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) October 2, 2024
It's not like these running concepts have to be gimmicks, either. The Packers schemed up a handful of touches for their dynamic slot receiver with their "pony" package, or two-running back formations, against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2.
One of his runs was a lateral swing screen, while the other was a simple handoff for a 15-yard gain.
Split-back formation with Reed.
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) October 2, 2024
Need more of this. pic.twitter.com/bY7oG0Ju8K
There are too many young receivers and NFL Draft prospects who draw comparisons to Deebo Samuel. Frankly, those comparisons are often unfair because Samuel is a rare blend of athleticism, size, and versatility that few players can replicate at the pro level.
However, even if he is a bit smaller than the 215-pound Deebo, Reed is the closest thing we've seen to a dual-threat receiver besides the San Francisco 49ers superstar.
Even More Reed Is on THe Way
Expect even more from Reed in the coming weeks.
The Packers are expected to be without their top deep threat in Christian Watson, at least for Week 5. The former second-round pick suffered a high-ankle sprain against the Vikings, but the good news is that the injury is considered short-term and unlikely to put him on injured reserve.
Without Watson, fellow second-year WR Dontayvion Wicks is expected to see more playing time. He saw his heaviest target share of his career after Watson went down, catching 5-of-13 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
However, Wicks also dealt with a handful of drops in crucial moments. He's likely to continue seeing a heavier workload, but the Packers are also expected to scheme up even more for Reed, who has been such a consistent and efficient weapon for their offense.
Except LaFleur to find even more ways to get Reed involved in the offense, both as a receiver and runner.
