NFL Analysis
10/2/24
5 min read
Will The Cowboys' Playoff Hopes Survive Losing Parsons, Lawrence?
Things are going from bad to worse for the Dallas Cowboys defense.
The Cowboys will be without star edge rusher Micah Parsons for at least one game after he suffered a high ankle sprain last Thursday against the New York Giants. Meanwhile, defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence will miss at least the next four weeks after being placed on injured reserve with a foot injury.
Now, the Cowboys will have to face a tough stretch of their schedule without two of their most reliable defenders. Their absence will impact not only the defense but the team as a whole, as their chances of being a legitimate contender in the NFC are suddenly in jeopardy.
Already a Leaky Unit
The Cowboys are not just without two of their best defensive players. What should be concerning is the productivity behind those absences.
According to Pro Football Focus, Parsons and Lawrence were among the three most productive pass rushers on the Cowboys roster. Parsons is responsible for a team-high 21 of the team's 69 total pressures, while Lawrence has the third-most pressures with nine.
Those 30 pressures between the two have accounted for more than 43 percent of the team's total pass-rushing productivity.
The Cowboys are also losing significant contributions to their run defense, which was already struggling with Parsons and Lawrence on the field. According to FTN Fantasy, Dallas has the worst run defense by DVOA through the first four weeks.
Now, that run defense will be without arguably its best defender against the run for at least four weeks. According to ESPN, Lawrence ranks third in the NFL with run stop win rate (RSWR) among edge defenders, behind only Anfernee Jennings and Travon Walker.
Parsons could return in the near future, but a long-term absence without such a solid run defender on an already-struggling Cowboys defense will be noted by upcoming opponents looking to establish the run.
It's Only Going to Get Harder
Injuries to Parsons and Lawrence come at a terrible time for the Cowboys.
Although they will play a questionable Pittsburgh Steelers team this week, the rest of their upcoming schedule involves some difficult opponents. The next five opponents after Pittsburgh are the Lions, 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, and Texans.
Those teams will be looking to run all over the Cowboys defense. According to FTN Fantasy, the Lions have the second-best rushing offense by DVOA, while the Falcons and Eagles also rank in the top 10. The 49ers are only in the middle of the road in rushing DVOA but continue to move the ball without superstar RB Christian McCaffrey.
Dallas's schedule doesn't get any easier. It has the second-hardest remaining strength of schedule, behind only the Carolina Panthers.
Arguably, the only "easier" section of the Cowboys' schedule comes in late November and early December — with a three-game stretch against the Giants, Bengals, and Panthers.
The Washington Commanders are a game ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC and have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule. The two teams still play each other twice, but the Cowboys' remaining schedule, with the potential of multiple games without Parsons and Lawrence, could put their division title hopes in jeopardy.
Reinforcements Probably Aren't Coming
It might be time for the Cowboys to start thinking about making a move at the trade deadline, especially one that would help bolster their defensive front.
Fortunately, there are a few intriguing names that could be available.
Denver Broncos defensive tackle D.J. Jones has been named a potential trade target ahead of the deadline for teams. He's in the final year of his contract on a rebuilding team. The Cowboys have the cap space this season to take on the rest of Jones' contract to get a key player in the trenches to help stop the run.
D.J. Jones was a homerun Free Agent signing last offseason for the Broncos.
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) March 29, 2023
A stout defender who uses his low center of gravity to become an immovable object in the middle, combined with the length, athleticism, and power to collapse the pocket and run down ball carriers. pic.twitter.com/ye0Mh4CS61
An off-ball linebacker could also be beneficial, but some of the top names potentially on the trade block are in the NFC East, like Jamin Davis and Devin White. An interesting option could be Miami Dolphins LB Channing Tindall. He's still young and has legitimate downhill explosiveness to fill open rushing lanes and generate contact closer to the line of scrimmage.
Even if Haason Reddick is a potential option, it would be unlikely. The former Eagles pass rusher is still holding out and has yet to practice for the New York Jets as he awaits a contract extension. The Cowboys don't have the long-term financial flexibility to pay Reddick, and he'd be redundant to Parsons when he returns.
Other potential trade targets to monitor include defensive lineman DeMarvin Leal, a former Texas A&M star now with the Steelers, or Jacksonville Jaguars lineman Roy Robertson-Harris.
Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat to win this season, but the Cowboys don't have the resources to bolster their defense in the middle of the season. A long-term absence from Lawrence could keep the Cowboys from reaching their goal of being a Super Bowl contender, even with Parsons expected to return in the near future.
