NFL Analysis
10/13/24
5 min read
Caleb Williams Finally Looks Like Bears' Franchise-Changing Star
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams finally looks like the No. 1 pick.
Williams had the best game of his career in London, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-16. The rookie was sensational, completing 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards, a career-high four touchdowns, and one interception for a 124.4 passer rating.
The Bears are in the thick of the NFC playoff race with a 4-2 record, and Williams' ascension suddenly has fans feeling like they have a real contender on their hands.
Caleb Is Cooking
Jayden Daniels may have taken an early lead in the Rookie of the Year race, but Williams and his week-over-week improvement has him right back in the conversation.
It was one of the most efficient outings for any quarterback in the NFL this season. According to RBSDM, Williams generated 21.7 expected points added (EPA), with 0.53 EPA per play. He also produced a 16.1 completion percentage over expected.
Williams' passing chart from Sunday's win tells a story as well. The rookie quarterback embraced the middle of the field while also attacking the intermediate throwing windows to find tons of success.
The trust and chemistry between Williams and the receivers also continue to improve. This back-shoulder touchdown to Keenan Allen was another great example of him being on the same page with his teammate while firing the ball with great placement and velocity.
The ball placement and velocity of this touchdown by Caleb Williams is next level!! Next level! #Bears pic.twitter.com/1LWWZHyxLr
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) October 13, 2024
It's not just Williams' improved accuracy with his receivers but also his scrambling ability that has helped the Bears' offense keep moving down the field. Along with a handful of off-script throws, Williams also ran four times for 56 yards on Sunday, his most rushing yards in a game this season.
Williams isn't the fastest quarterback, but his subtle movements in the pocket and impressive change-of-direction ability can help him keep almost any play alive.
Caleb Williams magic pic.twitter.com/OE4a9aKd9p
— Dave (@dave_bfr) October 13, 2024
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron also deserves some credit for adapting the offense and leaning into Williams' strengths. Key members of the offense, including Williams, met with Waldron a few weeks ago to encourage him to be more aggressive with the play calling, and it seems to be working.
That message seems to have been received well, and Waldron has been willing to draw up some creative plays to generate explosives (and touchdowns) for the offense.
.@ColeKmet stretches out for the TD!
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 13, 2024
📺: @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/hkGe6V930g
Along with Willams' ascension, the last couple of games from Daniels have slowed down his Rookie of the Year momentum. Heading into Week 6, Daniels has thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions in the last two games, while his sky-high completion percentage took a hit last week after completing just 14-of-25 passes in the win against the Cleveland Browns.
Williams continues to look better and better each week, and that trend could have him back on top of the Rookie of the Year race.
Room for Improvement
What's even scarier for the rest of the NFC is that despite all of his success, Williams is still a work in progress.
The deep ball continues to be an issue for Williams. Four of Williams' five interceptions have come on passes 20 yards or further downfield. He's completed just 6-of-27 deep shots for 207 yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 44.1 passer rating.
The lone interception from Williams in London came on a deep shot. D.J. Moore was wide open, but the rookie quarterback put too much air under the ball, allowing Jaguars safety Andre Cisco to get under it.
Andre Cisco with the pick! https://t.co/CLe3ZrXszq pic.twitter.com/boRio8xAjF
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) October 13, 2024
Fortunately for Bears fans, this isn't something that Williams struggled with as a college player. He had a 124.1 passer rating on deep shots in his final year at USC, completing more than half of his passes for 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Williams isn't throwing the deep ball well early, but the fact that he's still thriving without relying on deep shots is an encouraging sign that the Bears' offense could be even more deadly as he figures out how to generate explosive plays on vertical passing concepts.
A Difficult Road Ahead
Even with such a strong start to the year, the Bears have some stiff competition in the NFC.
The Bears have yet to face an NFC North opponent, and the rest of the division is filled with playoff-caliber teams. The Minnesota Vikings are one of two remaining undefeated teams, the Detroit Lions are 3-1 with some encouraging signs from their offense, and the Green Bay Packers are 3-2 with their offense just scratching the surface of its potential with Jordan Love back and under center.
The Bears' schedule gets much harder going forward, especially with six divisional games left to play. In fact, Chicago has the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, with upcoming games against teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Commanders.
It's also worth looking at the opponents that the Bears have already faced. The Panthers and Jaguars rank 30th and 32nd in defensive DVOA, helping the Bears find their offensive identity in the process.
The New York Times playoff machine gave the Bears just a 34 percent chance at the playoffs before Sunday's win. A victory against the Jaguars won't improve those odds much, but a 4-2 record can't be discounted when every win matters for a chance at the postseason.
This early-season momentum might be enough to get the Bears back into the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
