NFL Analysis
11/6/24
6 min read
Lattimore Trade Makes Washington Commanders NFC East Favorites
If the Washington Commanders weren't considered strong favorites to win the NFC East before, then the addition of cornerback Marshon Lattimore should firmly put them in the driver's seat.
Commanders general manager Adam Peters went all in on this year's team by trading for the former New Orleans Saints star corner. Washington traded picks in the third, fourth, and sixth rounds for Lattimore and a fifth-round pick, showing just how strongly they felt about acquiring the 28-year-old veteran.
The move for Lattimore not only puts the Commanders in a position to contend in 2024 but also opens up the possibility of this team becoming a legitimate contender during the next few years.
Lattimore's Defensive Impact
The box score numbers for Lattimore in 2024 don't look great. However, the former first-round pick is still having a reliable season in coverage.
Teams have tried to avoid throwing Lattimore's way this season. According to Pro Football Focus, he's been targeted just 14 times in 257 coverage snaps, allowing just eight catches for 83 yards with zero touchdowns and a pair of pass breakups.
A 6-foot, 192-pound corner, Lattimore has the size and movement skills to matchup with pretty much any assignment. This rep lined up across from Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts is a good example of Lattimore's click-close ability, along with his feel for taking the proper angle to get in front of Pitts to make a play on the ball.
Marshon Lattimore still has legitimate click-close ability. pic.twitter.com/M2YWWDHo3Q
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) November 6, 2024
After a couple of down years, Lattimore has turned things back around in the last few seasons.
He has allowed just one touchdown when targeted during the last three seasons, and the chart below shows just how consistent and reliable he has been as a full-time outside cornerback since 2022.
The Commanders have severely lacked this kind of established No. 1 cornerback. The defense as a whole has been disappointing, ranking 26th in defensive DVOA while allowing an opposing passer rating of 103.9, the NFL's fifth-worst mark.
The interesting piece will be to see how the difference in defensive schemes impacts Lattimore. According to TruMedia, the Saints ranked 28th in zone coverage rate, while the Commanders rank 12th.
Some of that zone usage could be that the Saints trusted their cornerbacks more in man-to-man situations than Washington does. The Saints also had other solid cornerbacks in Alontae Taylor, Paulson Adebo, and rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry, making man coverage a more reliable option.
Lattimore's arrival could allow Commanders defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. to call more man coverage concepts, but it also puts the Commanders in a much better position to properly utilize their cornerbacks. The Commanders ranked 28th in defensive DVOA when covering No. 1 receivers, relying on the likes of Benjamin St-Juste and Mike Sainristil to cover top-tier weapons.
In four of Washington's nine games, a receiver has eclipsed 100 receiving yards, including the likes of Ja'Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, and Zay Flowers gashing the secondary. St-Juste has struggled covering the No. 1 option in the past, but Lattimore's arrival will allow him to handle less talented receivers while using his 6-foot-3 frame to blanket them in coverage.
Sainristil will likely see the biggest change in his role, which could potentially unlock him as an ascending NFL player. A second-round rookie, Sainristil was an electric slot corner for the Michigan Wolverines during their national title run but has played more than 66 percent of his snaps as an outside cornerback this season.
A 5-foot-10, 182-pound corner, Sainristil's size and play style would make him a much more effective slot corner. He's relentless in run support, despite his size, and has the instincts to make plays on the ball to generate disruptive plays.
Sainristil is also a more than capable tackler with a missed tackle rate of just 6.7 percent, which is outstanding for a rookie. He's capable of breaking down and driving his feet through contact, allowing him to generate defensive stops like this one on third down against breakout rookie WR Malik Nabers.
Nice from Sainristil here.
— Chad Ryan (@ChadwikoTWW) November 3, 2024
Brings up the 4th down.#RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/zeXfL4cznu
Meanwhile, the arrival of a true No. 1 cornerback like Lattimore should alleviate some of the pressure off of Washington's safeties, who have struggled to clean up things on the back end when receivers get open downfield.
Per PFF, Quan Martin and Jeremy Chinn have allowed 20 catches on 25 combined targets for 277 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
That's a combined passer rating allowed of 152.42, or a nearly perfect passer rating.
Lattimore's coverage ability and experience covering top-tier receivers are a boost to Washington's defense by themselves. However, his arrival allows other players to slot into more appropriate roles, which could really unlock the Commanders' defense going forward.
The Path Ahead
A boost to the defense puts the Commanders in great shape, not just for 2024 but for the seasons ahead.
The Athletic's playoff projections model gives the Commanders a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 45 percent chance of winning the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles are surging, but thanks to Lattimore's arrival, the Commanders now have an answer to a vertical threat like A.J. Brown.
Things bode well for the rest of the season. The Commanders have the 16th hardest remaining strength of schedule, with opponents like the Saints and Tennessee Titans still on the schedule.
All of this is great news for this season, but the Commanders also have the opportunity to open a Super Bowl window thanks to a breakout rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The first-round pick is already one of the most exciting players in the NFL, and his rookie deal gives the Commanders plenty of financial flexibility to acquire veterans like Lattimore.
That financial flexibility allowed the Commanders to take on the remainder of Lattimore's contract. He will be under contract through the 2026 season, with cap hits of $18 million and $18.5 million in the next two years.
What's even better about the contract is that if things go poorly for some reason, the Commanders can cut ties with the star corner without any risk of a dead cap hit.
Teams have made deep playoff runs in recent seasons thanks to the flexibility that a rookie quarterback contract gives them. Peters and the Commanders' front office appear to understand that because trading for Lattimore is a bold "win now" move for a team that won just four games in 2023.
If that's the mindset of the Commanders, then there's a real chance that they'll be competing for deep playoff runs in the NFC for the foreseeable future.
