NFL Analysis
11/6/24
9 min read
How College Football’s New Landscape Is Redefining NFL Quarterback Development
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson has become the face of a debate regarding quarterback development. However, the drastically changing landscape of college football could completely alter the way quarterbacks turn into pro-ready prospects.
During the last few years, college football has seen drastic changes, including unlimited transfers, NIL deals, and an expanded College Football Playoff bracket. The product has quickly evolved into one more resembling the NFL, with players bouncing around schools to see more playing time for Playoff contenders or for more NIL opportunities to set their families up financially.
While the college football world is already feeling the impact of these changes, the NFL will soon feel them as well, particularly with the way quarterbacks are developed before going pro.
The NFL's Quarterback Problem
Organizations, coaching staffs, and owners have received a fair share of blame for the development of young quarterbacks. However, many of the young quarterbacks who struggle early in their careers came into the league needing more time to develop.
Richardson has been the most used example in this discussion. The fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, he came into the league with just one year as a starter for the Florida Gators, attempting just 393 passes in his college career.
Despite that lack of experience, the Colts rushed Richardson onto the field with the plan to help him quickly acclimate to the NFL level. Instead, injuries piled up due to his inexperience in protecting himself, and the struggles when on the field have led to even more erratic decision-making.
Richardson has since been benched in favor of Joe Flacco after a dreadful start to 2024. According to NFELO, he ranks 39th out of 44 qualified quarterbacks in success rate, 33rd in EPA per dropback, and dead last in completion percentage over expected.
His last game as a starter shows just how erratic Richardson had become as a passer.
The young Colts quarterback isn't the only passer in recent years to rush out of college to go pro. Players like Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins, and Mitch Trubisky are all well-known quarterbacks who came into the league with plenty of upside but minimal experience at the college level.
Quarterbacks have historically felt the pressure to go pro as quickly as possible, but the new era of college football is minimizing that pressure in a hurry.
The Latest Wave of NFL QBs
With opportunities to continue developing as a college quarterback and playing time at different programs, top prospects are getting more experience than ever before.
Just ask the first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 NFL Draft.
11 quarterbacks were taken in last year's draft. Of those 11 quarterbacks, only Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Pratt played their entire college career with one school.
All of those transfers allowed these quarterbacks to go into more suitable situations to develop and continue playing. Jayden Daniels is one the most successful examples of a transfer quarterback thriving with his next team, and now he's thriving in the NFL because of it.
Daniels was a talented but inconsistent quarterback at Arizona State before transferring to LSU. His decision was so controversial that Sun Devils players recorded the team trashing Daniels' locker after he announced it.
Instead of continuing to struggle, Daniels went to a program loaded with talent, winning a Heisman Trophy with the Tigers by showing off excellent deep-ball placement and athletic ability.
Those skills that helped Daniels develop at LSU have continued to help him succeed at the NFL level. Despite being a rookie who was immediately named the starter ahead of Week 1 for the Washington Commanders, Daniels hasn't skipped a beat.
According to NFELO, Daniels is third in the league with 0.33 EPA per dropback, behind only Malik Willis and Lamar Jackson. He's also third in CPOE behind Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts. The deep ball is a big reason for that success, with Daniels posting a 113.0 passer rating on passes 20-plus yards downfield, per PFF.
Beyond the raw talent, Daniels had so much college experience. He had more than 1,400 pass attempts, and he's a much more polished quarterback than he would have been going pro out of Arizona State in 2021.
He's far more comfortable going through his progressions as a passer before taking off, as you can see in the video below.
Bored. Here’s a quick, 4 Minute cutup of Jayden Daniels going through his progressions:
— • Colton Edwards • (@cedwardsNFL) November 5, 2024
(This isn't all of them) pic.twitter.com/ILVIzT80XK
Caleb Williams is also flashing with his new team despite a much weaker offensive line to protect him in Chicago. The No. 1 overall pick attempted nearly 1,100 pass attempts at USC and Oklahoma and has steadily improved each week he's been playing for the Bears.
Bo Nix is holding his own after setting the FBS record for career starts, while former Oklahoma and South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler made a few plays as a fill-in starter for the New Orleans Saints despite being a later draft pick thrown into the fire.
All of these players outperformed quarterbacks in similar situations over previous years, showing the value of the transfer portal to long-term NFL quarterback development.
The 2025 QB Class
Like the 2024 class, next year's group of quarterback prospects is loaded with players transferring to better opportunities.
Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward are likely to be the top two quarterback prospects in 2025. Sanders left Jackson State for an opportunity to play FBS football for his dad, Deion Sanders, and the Colorado Buffaloes. An influx of talent from the transfer portal has helped him reach new heights in 2024, showing huge strides in development as a passer.
Ward's ability has also been put on display in his first season for the Miami Hurricanes. After transferring from Incarnate Word to Washington State, Ward transferred for the second time to play for an ACC contender in the Hurricanes. According to PFF, he leads college football with 23 big-time throws, throwing for 29 touchdowns and just six interceptions while averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt.
Those opportunities with new teams have given Ward and Sanders experience at higher levels of college football, allowing them to continue to develop into two of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country.
Two other quarterbacks climbing up 2025 draft boards, Jalen Milroe and Garrett Nussmeier, have stayed with their respective programs. Both have the potential to be first-round picks if things keep trending in the right direction, but they could benefit from staying in college for different reasons.
Instead of going pro in 2025, Nussmeier and Milroe could continue to improve their draft stock next season by working on their games at the college level. That would raise questions in previous years, but the NIL era would allow both players to stay in college while being secure financially.
In fact, according to On3, Milroe and Nussmeier have two of the highest NIL valuations among current college athletes. Both rank in the top 25 of the On3 NIL 100, making an estimated nine figures annually as college athletes.
Along with potentially making millions of dollars by staying in college for another season, both players could improve their draft stock, which would slot them into higher-paying rookie contracts in 2026.
Both players could benefit from staying in college for different reasons. For Nussmeier, he's in his first year as the full-time starting quarterback for LSU after sitting behind Daniels. He's made the most of the opportunity now that he's finally a starter, but he has just 552 pass attempts in his college career.
The flashes are absolutely there for Nussmeier. Despite being a smaller quarterback prospect at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, he's fearless when trying to fit throws into tight windows and has a quick release with good arm talent to make all kinds of throws. However, that lack of experience shows with some questionable decision making at times, forcing unnecessary throws instead of knowing when to move on to the next play.
It's easy to see why he's drawn some first-round buzz, however, with throws like this one.
QB Garrett Nussmeier made some wild decisions on the Ole Miss tape. But he also stepped up when LSU needed a play.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 14, 2024
He has "make it" stuff for the next level. But projecting his ceiling will be the main challenge for NFL teams. pic.twitter.com/L0nfeZMvHo
Milroe already has a fair amount of experience as a two-year starter for one of the biggest programs in college football. However, his erratic ball placement and habit of dropping his eyes under duress to take off instead of going through his progressions have limited his ability as a pure passer.
Fortunately, many of those bad habits have started to disappear under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, the same coach who turned Michael Penix Jr. into a Heisman-caliber quarterback for the Washington Huskies. Instead of relying on scrambles, DeBoer's offense has implemented more designed runs for Milroe, along with quick reads in a more spread-out offensive scheme to make the most of his skill set.
DeBoer deserves plenty of credit for the way he's developed quarterbacks in the last few years. Milroe still isn't a polished prospect, but he could get a lot closer to being one with another year in DeBoer's system in 2025.
Regardless of the decisions Nussmeier and Milroe make, the NIL and transfer portal era of college football is giving more opportunities (and playing time) to quarterbacks hoping to make it to the NFL one day.
After years of inexperienced quarterbacks flaming out of the NFL, this new development path might usher in the next generation of superstars at the position.
