NFL Analysis
11/27/24
8 min read
Prediciting 2025 NFL Offseason Surprise Head Coach Openings
While families are getting ready for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, there are a handful of NFL head coaches who are prepping for bad news on Black Monday at the end of the 2024 season.
A few head coach vacancies are expected to open up shortly after the regular season wraps up. Doug Pederson is likely on his way out of Jacksonville, while Matt Eberflus could be out of opportunities to prove himself for the Chicago Bears.
The Jets and Saints jobs are already open, but NFL insider Albert Breer told The Dan Patrick Show that he expects as many as 10 teams to have head coach openings this offseason.
Even with a few assumed openings, that leaves a handful of surprise vacancies once the season ends. Let's look into some of those surprise candidates to be fired once the season ends, with predictions on which coaches will be safe and who will be on their way out.
Potential Surprise Openings
Cincinnati Bengals 
The Cincinnati Bengals' miracle run to the Super Bowl feels like a lifetime ago, even if Zac Taylor took them there back in the 2021 season.
Since that deep playoff run, the Bengals have had to rely on digging their way out of tough situations to start their seasons. They recovered from a 0-2 start to make it back to the AFC Championship in 2022 but will now miss the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after a 1-3 start in 2023 and a 1-4 start this year.
These slow starts have to be frustrating for Bengals fans, especially with the incredible connection Joe Burrow has reestablished at the NFL level with Ja'Marr Chase. The superstar receiver is on Triple Crown watch with a league-leading 1,056 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns and is just four catches behind CeeDee Lamb for the lead in receptions.
However, that connection is masking a lot of flaws on this team, particularly with its defense. The Bengals rank 26th in defensive DVOA despite having legitimate talent at all three levels.
The Bengals have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with Burrow, but the team doesn't have enough juice to be competitive this season. That might mean a change is needed, and the Bengals could be a darkhorse team to lure a coach like Ben Johnson with their top-tier quarterback and wide receiver duo.
Prediction: Fired
Indianapolis Colts
Shane Steichen took one of the biggest risks of the year for an NFL head coach by benching Anthony Richardson.
The Indianapolis Colts kept the reasoning behind Richardson's benching vague, but his performances started to look really ugly before being replaced as the starter by Joe Flacco. The hope was that Flacco could help keep the Colts in the playoff hunt while Richardson locked in on the basics to find his confidence again.
While the first part didn't happen, as Flacco went 0-2, the second part did. Richardson looked like a completely different quarterback in his first game back against the New York Jets, racking up three total touchdowns while leading the Colts on a game-winning drive in front of a hostile Jets crowd.
Anthony Richardson getting this throw off to Josh Downs while getting tackled to convert on 3rd down pic.twitter.com/NoFnwJCnB2
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 17, 2024
Richardson looked solid again to start on Sunday against Detroit, but some crucial drops hurt the offense's ability to find the end zone. The good news is that he has looked like a much more poised quarterback during the last two weeks despite playing behind a decimated offensive line.
The Richardson decision will be the No. 1 talking point for Steichen to keep his job. He's just 14-15 as the Colts head coach, but if their second-year quarterback continues to show signs of growth for the rest of the year, then Steichen's risky bet to bench Richardson will look smart enough that he should have no problem keeping his job.
Prediction: Safe
Las Vegas Raiders
The players campaigned for Antonio Pierce to take over as head coach after being the interim last season. So far, that decision hasn't panned out.
It's hard to fault Pierce too much for the team's struggles. The Las Vegas Raiders are just 2-9 but have dealt with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell splitting playing time throughout the year.
However, this situation gets tricky with the franchise's future. They will certainly try to take a quarterback in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and that quarterback could be Colorado's Shedeur Sanders.
If Sanders gets drafted by Las Vegas, his father, Deion Sanders, will likely play a big role in making sure that's a reality. Deion could also be consulted on who the head coach should be for his son, or he could even push for Raiders owner Mark Davis to make him the head coach.
It's unlikely that Deion will leave Colorado, especially after securing a commitment from 5-star quarterback Julian Lewis. However, if the Raiders draft Shedeur in 2025, he will likely have a say in who the head coach is, and that could mean a preference for an offensive-minded head coach.
It might not be fair to Pierce after just one season, but it feels like a real possibility.
Prediction: Fired
Cleveland Browns
The Deshaun Watson situation has loomed over the Cleveland Browns franchise for years now. Despite all of that, Kevin Stefanski keeps managing to make the Browns competitive.
After taking over in 2020, Stefanski is now one of the 10 longest-tenured head coaches in the NFL. He has a 40-38 record with two separate trips to the playoffs, including a postseason win against the Pittsburgh Steelers in his first year.
Despite a miracle push to the playoffs last season with Joe Flacco, the Browns are now at the bottom of the AFC North with a 3-8 record, despite a Thursday Night Football win against Pittsburgh with Jameis Winston starting under center.
Here's your NFL Films moment, @Jaboowins 😏🎥#HardKnocks | @Browns pic.twitter.com/wUNjWTCKxr
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 22, 2024
It's a complicated situation for Stefanski, who is being pressured to continue riding with Watson when he's healthy. Watson has not been a winning quarterback when playing, but Stefanski has managed to win games with Flacco and Winston as quarterbacks instead.
There's a chance the Browns will try to blame Stefanski for their recent struggles, but if they parted ways with their current head coach, there aren't many candidates who would want to accept a role knowing that they'd be stuck with Watson as their starting quarterback.
Expect Stefanski to stay put, unless he actively wants out.
Prediction: Safe
New England Patriots
Jerod Mayo was supposed to be Bill Belichick's long-term successor, but the situation in New England has been ugly.
New England Patriots fans should have expected a rebuilding year with a rookie quarterback and a questionable offensive line. But a 3-9 record with the 31st-ranked offense by DVOA has been a disaster, even with the flashes the team has seen from their rookie QB.
In most situations like this one, the head coach would be given the benefit of the doubt for at least a few seasons. However, because of the championship history in New England, Patriots fans won't be nearly as patient as fanbases from other franchises.
On top of that, Mayo put himself in hot water earlier in the season by calling his players soft after a loss. Belichick came out shortly after and criticized Mayo for those comments, forcing the current Patriots coach to walk back his comments.
That's a tough look for a coach who is still trying to win a locker room. If Robert Kraft feels that the players don't believe in Mayo, he could pull the plug sooner rather than later.
Prediction: Fired
