NFL Analysis
11/29/24
9 min read
Why The Clock Ran Out On Matt Eberflus
The Chicago Bears fired head coach Matt Eberflus. The final straw was a 23-20 Thanksgiving loss to the Detroit Lions, in which the Bears failed to get off a game-tying field goal attempt as time expired.
This is the first time the Bears have fired a head coach during a season, just weeks after they fired an offensive coordinator for the first time in-season.
Ebeflus kept his job after the 2023 season because of how the defense played. To his credit, that was mostly kept up during 2024. The Chicago defense is eighth in EPA per play and second in EPA per dropback.
But the defensive performance was not enough, paired with the offensive inconsistency and poor game management that have put the Bears at 4-8.
Even when Eberflus was retained last season, his most important hire was going to be the offensive coordinator. That backfired. If that was the only issue, there could have been a case that just getting the offensive staff right could have been enough to keep moving forward. But the constant issues at the end of games that cost the Bears potential wins were too much.
The Final Sequence
There might not be much more to say about how the Bears handled the final minute, but it’s worth discussing since this is how we got to this point.
The handling of the end-of-game situation was awful. What’s worse is after the game, Eberflus said, “I think we handled it the right way,” when discussing why the Bears’ final timeout was not called and the game ended without attempting a game-tying field goal.
Before the firing, the Bears allowed Eberflus to hold a media call on Friday morning to once again answer questions about how the game ended. During his time with the media, he said he was expecting to remain the head coach and was planning to play San Francisco next week as normal. He was fired two hours later. Time management is not a specialty for this franchise.
Just about everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong for the Bears in this sequence against the Lions. Let’s start after the defensive pass interference penalty gave the Bears a first down on a fourth-and-14. At this point, Chicago had a first-and-10 at the Lions’ 25-yard line with 46 seconds and two minutes remaining.
On first down, the Bears threw an incomplete pass to DJ Moore, and Caleb Williams was hit on the play. It took him a bit to get up and the play was slow to come in — this was a theme on this drive and throughout the game at spots. On second down, the Bears started a Keenan Allen motion with two seconds left on the play clock and called a timeout to prevent a delay of game. With two timeouts left, they had to call one after an incomplete pass.
That didn’t seem like the biggest deal at the time, because the Bears were still at the 25-yard line with one timeout but being down to one timeout and trying to save it for the field goal attempt played a big part in how the game ended.
After the timeout, the Bears had a 12-yard throw to Allen called back for an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty from Teven Jenkins. Then the Williams sack came on the next play. Za’Darius Smith came as a free rusher in a four-man rush against a called quarterback draw. Right tackle Larry Borom never got out to Smith.
Calling a quarterback draw on second-and-20 is already an interesting strategy, relying on only William’s legs to move the ball when the option to run had been there on called passing plays. Williams had scrambled on 8.5 percent of his dropbacks and had two scrambles of at least 10 yards, including a 13-yard run earlier in the drive.
But after the sack, everything went wrong, and everyone deserves some blame. Williams was slow to get things set up and then made adjustments to the play at the line, which there was no time to do. After seeing how much time was winding down, a timeout had to be called at some point to get another play off. Instead, the Bears threw an incomplete pass as time expired, and there was no chance to try to tie the game.
The Late-Game Mistakes
Going into the Washington game in Week 8, the Bears were 4-2 off their bye and looking for their fourth-straight win. Instead, Chicago went on a six-game losing streak.
The end-of-game management struggles started against Washington. With six seconds left and the Bears holding a 15-12 lead, the Bears allowed an open 13-yard pass to Terry McLaurin at the sideline, which made the upcoming Hail Mary attempt possible, moving the Commanders from their own 35-yard line to the 48-yard line. We now know how the Hail Mary ended with Tyrique Steveson out of position.
After that game, Eberflus said he did not regret how the Bears approached the play before the final attempt.
Against the Packers in Week 11, Green Bay went ahead 20-19 thanks in part to a wide-open 60-yard pass to Christian Watson that set up a one-yard Jordan Love touchdown.
The Bears drove down the field on the following drive that started with 2:59 left in the game. Williams had three great throws on that drive on back-to-back-to-back plays with a 16-yard gain on a third-and-19, a 21-yard gain on fourth-and-3, and a 12-yard pass on first down to get the ball to the Green Bay 30-yard line.
With 35 seconds and one timeout remaining, the Bears only ran one more play — a two-yard run. Chicago let the clock go down to three seconds and called the final timeout to set up a 46-yard game-winning field goal attempt that was blocked.
There are smaller potential errors in that play between the Packers, knowing Cairo Santos has a low trajectory on longer kicks to Santos, suggesting he would have preferred the ball to be on the opposite hash for the kick. Either way, the Bears should have been more aggressive in trying to gain more yards to make the field goal easier. That was the biggest mistake in that sequence.
After the game, Eberflus said they felt confident in the operation there.
The constant late and avoidable losses clearly weighed on the players. After Thursday’s loss to the Lions, DJ Moore did not know why a timeout wasn’t called.
Keenan Allen said, “We did enough as players to win the game.”
There were also players who disagreed with how the penultimate play against Washington was handled, as well as setting up the field goal against Green Bay. The weight of these losses clearly took a toll on the players.
If this was an issue in just one game, it might be ok to overlook it. But when it's been a constant issue in a losing streak? That's something that can't be ignored.
Chicago is 2-6 this season in games decided by seven points or fewer. Those losses are more frustrating because of how avoidable some of them were. The Bears feel close but also further away from contention given how far ahead the three other teams in the NFC North look at the moment.
What Does This Mean Going Forward?
Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has been promoted to interim head coach. Brown was just promoted to offensive coordinator when the Bears fired Shane Waldon. The shift to Brown has helped Williams and the offense during the past three weeks. Williams has averaged 0.13 EPA per play in three games with Brown, as opposed to -0.17 under Waldron.
Brown might be the best option to take over as interim head coach, but this could potentially weaken the connection with Williams as Brown would now have more responsibilities on his plate. His first promotion was meant to ensure Williams would have the care and attention needed to improve, and while that has worked overall, that’s no longer the only thing Brown is in charge of doing. The progress that has been made could be interrupted.
If everything about this franchise now revolves around setting the quarterback up for success, this could be a risk.
Given some of the operational issues also seemed to stem from getting play calls in and set up at the line of scrimmage against the Lions, having Brown also in charge of the game management and other game-day duties could have some unintended consequences.
Because of the focus on offense and getting the most out of the first overall pick at quarterback, it’s likely the Bears are going to be looking for an offensive-minded head coach this offseason. With the presence of Williams, this should be a coveted job.
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is going to be a popular name. It’s also worth highlighting other offensive coordinators around the league who have been able to build an offense to get the most out of a quarterback, such as Buffalo’s Joe Brady, Tampa Bay’s Liam Coen, or Arizona’s Drew Petzing.
But as Eberflus showed, winning as a head coach is about more than just having solid play on one side of the ball, even if doing so on offense is preferable to having just a strong defense.
We've also seen the "culture" guys have success this season, so nothing should be off the table.
The Bears are now in a spot they continue to find themselves in: a drafted quarterback coming in, and a coaching staff that was let go after the quarterback’s first season. The quarterback already looks different than the previous ones. Caleb Williams has those flashes. It’s now on the Bears to bring in the staff that will match.
