NFL Analysis
1/13/25
6 min read
Why The Baltimore Ravens Are Built Perfectly for Super Bowl LIX Run
The AFC may be loaded, but the Baltimore Ravens are uniquely positioned to make a Super Bowl run, even with a gauntlet of a path to get there.
Baltimore made a statement in the AFC Wild Card, dominating its division rival with a 28-14 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens set a franchise record with 299 rushing yards on 50 carries, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt.
That kind of dominant performance has the Ravens feeling good about where they're at heading into a divisional-round matchup against the Buffalo Bills. The confidence helps, but it's an elite level of complementary football on both sides of the ball that has the Ravens looking like the league's most dangerous team.
The LEague's Most Balanced Offense
NFL coaches dream of being able to "establish the run," but even the most optimistic coaches can't imagine the kind of balanced offensive attack that the Ravens have.
Thanks to an MVP-level dual-threat quarterback, an elite running back, and a strong offensive line, the Ravens have asserted their will on defenses all season. In fact, according to TruMedia, the Ravens were the most efficient offense running and passing the ball, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per dropback and EPA per designed run.
Lamar Jackson has always been an electric dual-threat quarterback, but it's his absurd efficiency as a passer that has helped take Baltimore's offense to the next level in 2024. He had one of the most efficient seasons in NFL history, posting a 119.6 passer rating while posting career-best numbers with 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just four interceptions.
According to NFELO, Jackson led the NFL with 9.5 adjusted net yards per attempt, second with 204 total EPA, and fifth among full-time starters in success rate.
While Jackson's firm handle on Baltimore's offense has helped him become a lethal passer, the acquisition of Derrick Henry helped open up the passing game. Despite being 31 years old and having a massive workload during his NFL career, Henry broke 2,000 scrimmage yards with 18 total touchdowns and rushed for another 186 yards and two scores against Pittsburgh.
Jackson and Henry's dominance gives Baltimore the scariest two-headed monster in the NFL, but none of it is possible without an offensive line that general manager Eric DeCosta quickly revamped. Tyler Linderbaum and Daniel Faalele have emerged as legitimate starters as 2022 draft picks, while rookie Roger Rosengarten has looked like an ideal fit as Baltimore's new starting right tackle.
In fact, Rosengarten may have played his best game as a rookie in the wild card against Pittsburgh, completely shutting down a future Hall of Famer in T.J. Watt.
Ravens rookie RT Roger Rosengarten shut T.J. Watt out of the box score. Zero sacks, zero tackles. #DefinitelyASomebody pic.twitter.com/WRWohbN4Up
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) January 12, 2025
There are few holes in Baltimore's offense right now, and that balanced efficiency as a running and passing team allows it to expose the weaknesses of whatever defense it's facing.
An Ascending Defense
There were real concerns about how Baltimore's defense would fare after Mike Macdonald left to take a head coaching job with the Seattle Seahawks. Instead, the Ravens have continued to have one of the most formidable defenses in the league.
According to FTN Fantasy, the Ravens' defense finished sixth in DVOA and ranked in the top eight against the run and pass.
Pass-rushing depth was a big reason for all of that success this year. The Ravens finished second in the regular season with 54 sacks and came away with another four against Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs.
It's not like it's just one player dominating as a pass rusher, either. Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh finished with double-digit sacks, and they were two of three players on the Baltimore defense with at least 50 pressures, with the other being Nnamdi Madubuike.
All of those rushers on passing downs make it difficult for offensive lines to handle everyone at once.
.@steelers @Ravens Chuck Smith is the Pass Rush Specialists Coach for the Ravens. All I see is massive improvement in all the young players like @justinmadubuike Madubuike & @DafeOweh #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/7NsgX8TTAs
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 12, 2025
It's not just the pass rush that has the Ravens' defense looking so intimidating this year. They have talent at all three levels, with Roquan Smith continuing to hold things down as the team's star linebacker, posting another strong year with a low missed tackle rate and effectiveness in coverage.
Baltimore's secondary might be the biggest surprise of the season. A unit that had some question marks outside of Kyle Hamilton coming into 2024 suddenly looks like one of the top defensive back units in the NFL.
Marlon Humphrey has had a career year despite being a Pro Bowler and All-Pro in previous seasons. He finished the regular season with a career-high six interceptions with 15 pass breakups, posting a 61.3 passer rating when targeted.
Humphrey is a star-No. 1 corner, but the bigger question was how rookie Nate Wiggins would handle playing opposite of the established veteran, especially with such a slight build at 185 pounds. However, Wiggins has thrived as a lockdown coverage corner, allowing zero touchdowns when targeted to go with one interception, 13 pass breakups, and a passer rating of just 73.3 when thrown at.
The first-round rookie didn't allow a single touchdown in coverage in the regular season despite being matched up against elite wideouts like Malik Nabers throughout the year.
3 straight reps of Nate Wiggins shutting down Nabers inside the 5 pic.twitter.com/mYRIpbsdKW
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) December 18, 2024
The Ravens' defense is simply overflowing with talent, and even some of the younger players are hitting their stride in time for a Super Bowl run.
The Path Forward
Baltimore made it look easy in the wild-card round, but things will get a whole lot harder going forward.
If things go as expected, the Ravens will face the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs just to make it to the Super Bowl.
However, the Ravens look like a team that matches up well against both of those opponents on paper. The Ravens already faced both teams, blowing out Buffalo in a 35-10 win back in September and losing to the Kansas City Chiefs by Isaiah Likely's toe being out of bounds at the end of their season opener.
Those games were at the beginning of the year when Baltimore was still trying to figure out its identity. Now, the Ravens are carrying a five-game win streak into the AFC divisional round with a surprisingly healthy roster, pending the status of Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers.
Even if Flowers can't go, the Ravens have so much talent on both sides of the ball that their best brand of football should be able to comfortably take down whoever is in their way.
