NFL Analysis
1/17/25
8 min read
How Nickel Defense Could Shape The 2025 NFL Divisional Round
Nickel is the new base. It’s a phrase that’s gotten thrown around for years when talking about NFL defenses — so much so that “new” has probably lost a bit of its meaning.
For a quick explainer, “base” defense in the NFL means four defensive backs are on the field, typically with three linebackers. Nickel is when five defensive backs are on the field for the defense.
As you might guess, base defense was long the standard with two outside cornerbacks and two safeties. With the increase in three-receiver sets around the league, a slot corner has been a necessity. Since 2015, at least 50 percent of defensive plays league-wide have involved five defensive backs.
Everything in the NFL is cyclical, so while the rate of nickel defense and 11 personnel keeps increasing, some teams have embraced heavier personnel on both sides of the ball to counter the current league meta.
This year’s Divisional Round will highlight the chess match between the teams that want to go bigger on offense and the defenses that prefer lighter personnel.
Can Washington Stop Detroit?
No team has used lined up in nickel more often than the Washington Commanders, who led the league at 82.5 percent of defensive snaps during the regular season, per TruMedia. When Washington wasn’t in nickel, it went lighter, opting for dime (six defensive backs) on 10.4 percent of plays and base on just six percent.
Head coach Dan Quinn leaned heavily on defensive backs during his time as the Cowboys' defensive coordinator. Dallas played nickel on 73.1 percent and dime on 21.4 percent of defensive snaps in 2023.
The Commanders' defense was up and down during the regular season, especially against the pass. Washington ranked 24th in EPA per play but fifth in success rate against the pass, per TruMedia. Against the run, Washington was one of the league’s worst defenses — 27th in EPA per play and success rate. Washington was 25th in the rate of running back runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage and allowed the second-highest explosive run rate.
During the regular season, the Commanders did not try to move away from what they did best. They might not have a choice to pivot in the Divisional Round, with linebacker Bobby Wagner expected to play but not at 100 percent.
Detroit Lions, come on down.
Detroit plays in 11 personnel on 54.6 percent of offensive snaps, but the Lions also go into 12 personnel on 32.3 percent of snaps, which was the third-highest rate of the regular season. Because Detroit is still in 11 personnel on a majority of snaps, the Lions saw nickel on 61.1 percent of plays this year.
When the Lions saw nickel this season, they ran 40 percent of the time, and no team had more total EPA on the ground. Detroit had a 17 percent explosive run rate, which ranked third against nickel. When the Lions went into 12 and faced nickel, they actually struggled to pass (-0.16 EPA per play) but averaged 0.21 EPA per play on the ground (second) with a league-high 50.9 percent success rate.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 17, 2025
The Lions tied with the Ravens in overall EPA per play when facing five defensive backs during the regular season.
Lions Offense By On-Field Defensive Backs, 2024 Season (Per TruMedia)
| On-Field DBs | EPA/Play | EPA/Pass | EPA/Rush | Success% | Pass Success% | Rush Success% | YPP | Pass% |
| 4 | 0.08 | 0.33 | -0.04 | 46.3% | 59.0% | 42.0% | 5.5 | 40.2% |
| 5 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 49.5% | 52.7% | 46.1% | 6.7 | 59.9% |
| 6 | 0.54 | 0.73 | -0.82 | 48.3% | 52.0% | 33.3% | 7 | 89.3% |
Ravens Force Teams Into Base Like No Other
The Ravens pose a similar threat to the Bills, especially if Zay Flowers does not play in the Divisional Round. Few teams could lose their No. 1 receiver and potentially gain a bigger matchup advantage, but that’s where the Ravens find themselves.
Without Flowers last week against the Steelers, the Ravens used 11 personnel on 11.1 percent of plays. As noted in 1st & 10 following the game, that was the lowest rate in a playoff game since the Ravens used 11 personnel on three percent of plays in the 2021 Divisional Round against the Bengals.
Baltimore used a sixth offensive lineman on 22 percent of snaps against Pittsburgh, the same rate as Buffalo — a team known for using an extra lineman — did against Denver.
No team used 11 personnel less often than the Ravens during the regular season, just 28.1 percent of offensive snaps. Only the Saints saw a higher rate of base defense played against them.
Because of the overall use of bigger bodies — the Ravens use Isaiah Likely in 12 personnel, and Patrick Ricard can act as a fullback, tight end, or extra offensive lineman when he’s on the field in 21 or 22 personnel — and the threat of Derrick Henry in the backfield, opposing defenses ramp up the rate of base defense when playing Baltimore.
While the Ravens tied with the Lions for EPA per play against nickel, there is no team in Baltimore’s league against base. The Ravens lead the league with 0.16 EPA per play and 6.8 yards per play. Baltimore runs 60 percent of the time against base and still has the highest rushing success rate.
When the Ravens decide to pass against the bigger defensive personnel, they average 0.46 EPA per play with a 59 percent success rate.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 17, 2025
The Bills used the lowest rate of base defense in the league this season at 3.8 percent. Buffalo was third in nickel (80.4 percent) and eighth in dime (15 percent).
When the Bills played the Ravens during the regular season, they shifted to 25.9 percent base, without both Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard. The three linebackers on those base snaps were Nicholas Morrow, Baylon Spector, and Dorian Williams. Williams was the only one of that trio who played a defensive snap (one) last week against the Broncos.
Baltimore is the last offense a defense should want to face when short-handed at linebacker, and those personnel issues even came across in nickel when Milano and Bernard's coverage ability and downhill attack were missing.
It’s nearly impossible to take anything away from how the Bills chose to defend the Ravens. While the boost in base defense despite the lack of functional linebackers could be notable, slot corner Taron Johnson also missed that game, so the Bills did not risk taking him off the field for an inferior linebacker. Johnson, one of the best slots in the league, is a big reason why the Bills can stay in nickel personnel so often.
Rams Might Have New Plan vs. Eagles
While those games feature defenses that need to ponder how to adjust to the offenses, there’s one game this weekend that has the flip side. The Philadelphia Eagles have the best defense in the league during the second half of the season, easily first in EPA per play on that side of the ball since Week 10.
In that span, the Eagles used nickel defense 80.4 percent of the time. With a great defensive line and linebacker play, Philadelphia allows the defensive backs (including rookie slot Cooper DeJean) to sit back and react in the secondary.
Under Sean McVay, the Rams have been the heaviest 11-person team in the league during his tenure. In the regular season, Los Angeles had three receivers on the field for 82.4 percent of snaps, behind only the Atlanta Falcons and McVay disciple Zac Robinson.
But last week, against the Minnesota Vikings, the Rams used 12 personnel on 51 percent of plays, easily their highest rate of the season. In the first half, the Rams used 12 personnel on 36 percent of plays and averaged 0.50 EPA per play. TE Tyler Higbee left after 12 snaps, yet the Rams still went strong with two tight ends on the field.
There were only two other games this season in which the Rams used 12 personnel more than 40 percent of the time, and one was their regular-season meeting with the Vikings. So it could be something the Rams saw that allowed them to get the Vikings out of some of their exotic fronts, but it could also be a preview of the plan against the Eagles.
The Eagles will also be without Nakobe Dean, who played 82 percent of the defensive snaps during the regular season but suffered a knee injury in the wild-card game against the Green Bay Packers.
When faced with 12 personnel, Philadelphia had a near-even split of 44.9 percent of plays in base and 53.8 percent in nickel. They ranked third in EPA per play against the run from 12 but 14th against the pass.
Eagles Defense vs. 12 Personnel, 2024 (per TruMedia)
| On-Field DBs | Plays | EPA/Play | EPA/Pass | EPA/Rush | Success% | Pass Success% | Rush Success% |
| 4 | 71 | 0.19 | -0.01 | 0.41 | 68.9% | 55.0% | 82.8% |
| 5 | 85 | 0.04 | -0.07 | 0.13 | 63.7% | 60.4% | 68.4% |
The NFL Playoffs so often come down to specific matchups and how teams adapt. The personnel chess match will be just one thing to monitor during one of the best football weekends of the year.
