NFL Analysis
3/4/25
9 min read
NFL Offseason QB Carousel: Where Top Quarterbacks Will Land
There is going to be a significant quarterback carousel this offseason. While we’re not going to see top-tier quarterbacks change teams, a handful of teams still likely don’t have their 2025 starters on the roster a week away from the start of free agency.
With Matthew Stafford officially staying with the Los Angeles Rams after some trade discussions, our first domino of the offseason fell. That took away the top option for a few teams and will allow the rest of the quarterback market to move now that teams must pivot to their next option.
Before free agency kicks off, let’s take a swing and predict where the top quarterbacks end up, both in the draft and free agency.
New York Giants - Cam Ward
The Giants were willing to be aggressive in bringing in a 37-year-old Stafford in an attempt to boost an offense that has some — but not all — pieces in place on that side of the ball.
With general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll in a win-or-else year for their jobs, taking a swing on a proven veteran would have been a risky move that only would have provided a short-term benefit.
Now that Stafford is off the table, the Giants can take a similarly aggressive swing to move up to the first overall pick and grab Miami quarterback Cam Ward. In this scenario, that’s what we envision the Giants doing.
Ward is the opposite of Daniel Jones in that he has a good feel in the pocket and can be aggressive throwing downfield when under pressure.
Daboll showed he could build an offense around a quarterback who was limited in his aggressiveness and also a quarterback who needed his aggressiveness reined in a bit. There are more avenues to success with the latter, so getting a player like Ward could show some immediate upside while throwing to Malik Nabers.
Ward had the second-highest rate of throws to the middle of the field and the second-highest explosive pass rate in this draft class, according to TruMedia. Those are two elements that have been missing from the Giants’ passing game.
Last season, Nabers was fifth with 23 targets of at least 20 air yards but only had seven receptions on those plays.
Hooking themselves to Ward and proving there is development could be enough to keep Daboll and Schoen for another year.
If the Giants were to make this move, doing so before free agency would help to know the team could just bring in a potential bridge for the start of the year, such as Marcus Mariota.
Tennessee Titans - Sam Darnold
Trading the first overall pick before the start of free agency would also help the Titans because they would need to know how aggressively to pursue a starting-caliber free agent on the market should they elect to pass on one on the draft.
Moving the first overall pick to the Giants would only slide the Titans back to third overall, which would give them the pick of Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter or Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter while keeping the ability to get out in front of free agency.
The Titans started to lay the foundation last season while attempting to build around Will Levis to see what he had. That turned out to be not much. When Levis was pressured, he crumbled. Darnold’s weaknesses are similar but he was able to get in more big plays when not pressured.
Darnold turns 28 years old in June and would give the Titans something at quarterback to build around. It would be expensive to sign Darnold but having him for at least three years would allow Tennessee to move around money in order to fit the contract on the books. The Titans have over $50 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap, and could still bring in pieces to fill out the rest of the roster.
Tennessee could then bring in Carter or Hunter to help the defense (or also the offense in Hunter’s case) and use the extra picks to continue adding youth to the roster.
Las Vegas Raiders - Aaron Rodgers / Shedeur Sanders
After the Raiders pushed hard for Stafford — with a might-or-might-not-have-been-purposeful meeting between the quarterback and Tom Brady in Montana — Rodgers could be a natural pivot option for Las Vegas. With the game of quarterback musical chairs playing out, this could be one of very few options for Rodgers.
Pete Carroll has enough juice as a head coach that whatever comes with Rodgers could be handled and the 41-year-old quarterback could fit with in Chip Kelly’s offense. Rodgers wants to live in shotgun and get the ball out quickly, two things likely to mesh with Kelly’s offense. Now Kelly has gone hurry up often and would likely want to continue to do so and there could be some compromise in the pace to the line and how Rodgers wants to control the line of scrimmage once he gets there.
Signing Rodgers could give the Raiders a veteran option while they hope to find something in the draft. Reports suggest there is a widening gap between Ward and Sanders after the NFL Combine. Sanders isn’t the type of quarterback who would usually need to sit but learning from Rodgers in this type of offense could be beneficial.
Sanders used a high rate of early down passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (his 41.2 percent rate was the second-highest among all 119 qualified college quarterbacks, per TruMedia) and throwing him in a Kelly offense behind Rodgers could allow him to learn how to make the best use of those plays while opening up more plays off them.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Justin Fields
Steelers owner Art Rooney said Pittsburgh would likely bring back one of their two quarterbacks from the 2024 season and it’s looking increasingly likely that it’s going to be Justin Fields.
Fields was the starter at the beginning of the season before Russell Wilson took over. When Fields was behind center, the Steelers lived on explosive plays on the ground but there was a lack of down-to-down consistency. When Wilson took over, the Steelers lived on explosive plays through the air but there was a lack of down-to-down consistency.
Because of Wilson’s fall off during the last few games of the season, Fields finished with higher EPA per play (0.06) than Wilson (-0.01) for the regular season, per TruMedia. He also ended up with a higher success rate (43.1 percent to 41.7 percent).
If Pittsburgh brings Fields back, there could be some belief that there would be more structure provided to him in the passing game that could fix some of the mistakes from last season. That could give the Steelers higher upside than betting on Wilson’s passing — and a lack of mobility that will not return — to carry the offense.
New York Jets - Russell Wilson
Like Rodgers, there won’t be many options for Wilson, especially if the Giants trade up in the draft as we’ve predicted them to do here.
Wilson would likely cherish the opportunity to play in the New York market and the Jets could build a play-action-heavy offense around him under coordinator Tanner Engstand. While Wilson isn’t the same type of passer as Jared Goff — the Detroit quarterback lives in the middle of the field while Wilson favors the sidelines — the overall passing structure should give Wilson more options both in design and when things break down.
Last season, Wilson ranked 36th of 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play on plays that lasted at least three seconds (-0.36).
Putting Wilson in an offense that would allow him to lean more on the run game with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen should take away some of the need to extend plays by, hopefully, keeping the Jets ahead of the sticks on early downs.
If Wilson was able to mix in more safe throws instead of searching for the moonball on every dropback, he could serve as a more successful bridge to whatever the Jets would have planned next.
Cleveland Browns - Kirk Cousins / Jalen Milroe
Getting this exact combination in Cleveland could take a lot of patience. The Browns would need ot wait for the Falcons to release Kirk Cousins. They don’t have to wait until June 1 to use that designation, but Atlanta has indicated no rush in letting Cousins go.
But should Cousins get released, he’s the exact type of quarterback that would work for Cleveland’s transition. With so much salary still on the books for the Falcons, the Browns could potentially sign Cousins for the vet minimum in a similar way the Steelers signed Wilson last season.
Cousins has a history with Kevin Stefanski from their time in Minnesota together. There’s still some value to Cousins, especially if his claim about a shoulder injury at the end of the season is true. Even without much mobility, Cousins was ninth in EPA per play through Week 9 before everything fell apart.
Cleveland could keep the second pick and take Carter or Hunter or trade back and accumulate assets to take an eventual shot at another quarterback.
In the meantime, the Browns could take a swing on a player like Jalen Milroe on Day 2. Milroe’s rushing ability could add an element to the Stefanski passing game, especially off bootlegs, and if it doesn’t work out, the investment is such that Cleveland could go back to the well next offseason to find the quarterback of the future.
