NFL Analysis
3/7/25
9 min read
2025 NFL Free Agency: Predicting Landing Spots For Top RBs On The Market
The 2025 NFL free agency period kicks off soon, and it won't take long for big names to find new homes. We've already seen some trades agreed to, and more moves are coming. It's not a tremendously strong group of playmakers available in the open market.
The re-emergence of running backs is important and can help shape how the league evolves during the next few years. Saquon Barkley just became the NFL's first $20 million-a-year back, so times are getting better for the top stars at the position. With a deep class of rookies set to enter the NFL in the 2025 draft, the veteran market will need to pounce on strong offers quickly.
Some big names at running back will be available, and teams are flush with cap space. Signing a veteran now makes it easier to pass on the position in the draft, so there's an incentive to pay more money and save a draft pick for another roster need.
Here are our free agency predictions for the top six running back free agents.
2025 Running Back Free Agency Predictions
J.K. Dobbins: Las Vegas Raiders
2024 stats: 204 carries, 931 yards, 9 TDs
It's hard to fathom just how bad the offensive situation was in Las Vegas last year, but the fact two of their top three rushers couldn't average more than 3.2 yards per carry is a good snapshot of how much they struggled.
Things will change quickly under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, and you can bet the run game will be overhauled. The first step was adding two coaches devoted to winning in the trenches, and the next one was improving the talent in the running back room.
The top running back free agent available is J.K. Dobbins. Coming off an excellent season for the rival Chargers, the 26-year-old brings better efficiency and explosiveness than anyone else on the market. Vegas, armed with almost $100 million in cap space, can easily make a big front-loaded offer for Dobbins and then double down on the position through the draft.
Dobbins' advanced numbers reveal someone who hits home runs and creates more than your average back. He ranked 13th in rushes of at least 10 yards despite having fewer carries than any back in the top 18 of the metric. PFF's breakaway metric has Dobbins as seventh amongst backs with at least 110 carries.
His injury history, which includes an Achilles and ACL tear, is significant. However, the Raiders can mitigate his exposure by keeping his total workload around 200 carries alongside a talented rookie running mate.
Aaron Jones: Dallas Cowboys
2024 stats: 255 carries, 1,138 yards, 5 TDs
Signing a 30-year-old running back who was barely more productive than your in-house talent who turns 27 this summer isn't usually good business, but the Dallas Cowboys aren't flush with cap space. Considering their long list of needs and limited assets to find help on both sides of the ball, taking calculated risks is part of the equation. Aaron Jones can be part of the answer in the backfield.
It's not a secret Dallas lacks playmaking at running back. Rico Dowdle emerged as a viable option when blocking is good, but he's not especially explosive or well-rounded. Keeping him would be fine if the price is right, but Dallas can easily be outbid.
Instead, Jones offers value as a reliable platoon player who can pair with a more explosive rookie. While Jones' explosiveness has undoubtedly dipped, creating only 2.97 yards after contact per rush in 2024, dipping below 3.15 for the first time since 2019, he's still consistently averaging 4.5 yards per carry and adding value as a receiver.
A short deal with limited upside would fit into Dallas' situation and allow them to still pursue their next star back in the draft.
Najee Harris: Los Angeles Chargers
2024 stats: 263 carries, 1,043 yards, 6 TDs
Pittsburgh has the money to keep Najee Harris, but it feels like each party could be ready to seek out greener pastures. Since arriving in Pittsburgh, Harris has been a volume ball-carrier behind a below-average offensive line. His efficiency has been bad, but he's never missed a game and can handle a huge workload.
The Chargers might prefer Dobbins' slashing style but should be wary of investing in someone with major injuries in his recent past. Harris doesn't move the needle himself, but he can pair with a rookie and be a terrific platoon player. Pittsburgh nearly had that with Jaylen Warren, but they never fed Warren enough to maximize the pairing.
Najee Harris pic.twitter.com/vro630IW4T
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 3, 2025
Given his 240-pound frame and the natural strength that comes with his bulk, Harris' physicality will match Jim Harbaugh's offensive philosophy. Harris isn't as pulverizing as his size suggests, but there is still value in upgrading their run-blocking if the Chargers can. That's a critical part of a Harris signing working out, though, as he's not elusive nor overly creative.
The Chargers had the fourth-worst run-blocking offensive line in 2024, so that has to improve. Assuming it does through personnel upgrades and tweaks, Harris can serve as a hammer without breaking the bank for the Chargers.
Javonte Williams: Minnesota Vikings
2024 stats: 139 carries, 513 yards, 4 TDs
Minnesota is one of a few teams that is so well-coached and smart about identifying talent that it won't sweat losing Aaron Jones. They maximized their one-year run with the veteran and will surely look to find another value play at a position they don't seem to value too highly. Adding a back who turns only 25 this offseason makes sense.
Javonte Williams didn't quite pan out as a second-round pick for the Denver Broncos, but there are layers as to why. Their offensive scheme and personnel were limited until 2024, and the offensive line still struggled to produce viable rushing lanes this past season. Williams hasn't been able to overcome that, so he's not a star without proper blocking, but that doesn't mean he won't be useful.
Pass blocking for running backs on Third downs is not an easy job. Typically you are scanning between multiple players, diagnosing who will be the most dangerous threat. Good processing, pickup and finish here by Javonte Williams. pic.twitter.com/IC6kdgdroB
— The Film Room (@Cover1FilmRoom) February 26, 2025
Minnesota offers a significantly better offensive line and a zone-based scheme that is more likely to fit Williams's skill set. Kevin O'Connell's usage of motion and play-action bodes well for Williams, and the former North Carolina back is one of the better-receiving options in the NFL.
Entering the 2025 season with Williams as the undisputed starter may be too risky, but as with the other free agents mentioned, he's a solid option to be in tandem with a rookie.
Rico Dowdle: Denver Broncos
2024 stats: 235 carries, 1,079 yards, 2 TDs
We didn't get to see Audric Estime as much in 2024 as Denver probably hoped, but there's no reason to think the Broncos are out on him being at least a power back in the offense. At best, he blossoms into a bigger role. Hedging against him falling out of their plans completely would be wise.
Denver is in the middle of the NFL with $40 million in cap space, so Rico Dowdle is a good mid-tier signing who won't break the bank. In return, they get a solid player coming off a breakthrough season. Dowdle, who ranked 15th by averaging 3.28 yards after contact per carry, is a zone-based runner with average explosiveness beyond his fight through that first hit.
Rico Dowdle. Bronco. Make it happen. pic.twitter.com/H3EC6YEGjH
— Sean Baldwin (@SeanBaldwinX) February 18, 2025
A backfield with Dowdle, Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin won't set the world on fire, but Sean Payton has balance and depth. A higher-upside rookie would be nice, but Dowdle's presence allows Denver to put that need on the backburner a little bit.
Nick Chubb: Cleveland Browns
2024 stats: 102 carries, 332 yards, 3 TDs
Nick Chubb's return to an NFL field after one of the ugliest injuries we've seen on a football field was a massive win for him and the Cleveland Browns. He could've ridden off into the sunset after suffering a brutal ACL and MCL tear but opted to rehab it and had a successful eight-game 2024 season, considering his journey. However, the quality of Chubb's play last year was that of someone who shouldn't be in the NFL much longer.
The Browns will let Chubb hit free agency and seek out an incentive-based offer that gives him some upside in case having a full offseason rejuvenates his body more than a rushed recovery. It might even be likely Chubb can't be as bad as his raw numbers suggest he was last year. His movement ability in 2024 was bad, but his vision wasn't.
Cleveland's battered offensive line didn't help make things easier, as Chubb had to work for every yard gained. Interested suitors would need to buy into Chubb's knee getting healthier and their own line creating easy rush lanes for Chubb to take advantage of.
Seeing Chubb find more success is the ideal outcome, but there's a romanticism to him accomplishing that in Cleveland. A one-year deal for Chubb to give it one more shot with the Browns after they upgrade the offensive line and quarterback spots would be fitting.
