Expert Analysis
1/12/24
14 min read
AFC Teams With the Most Work to Do This Offseason
There will be six new playoff teams out of 14 in this year’s playoffs, a 43 percent turnover from the 2022 postseason. That increases the hopes in 2024 of the 18 NFL teams that missed out this year.
Here are five AFC teams that have a lot of work to do but can make the leap to playoff status if things come together and top players (such as Aaron Rodgers) stay healthy.
AFC Teams With Work to Do
DENVER BRONCOS (8-9 in 2023)
WHERE TO REPAIR
Year 1 of the Sean Payton reign was a roller coaster for the Denver Broncos with a 1-5 start followed by five straight wins (including over four playoff teams) to get into postseason contention — before they limped across the finish line with four losses in their last six games.
Now, Russell Wilson's contract and the acrimony involved in his late-season benching (allegedly to avoid an injury guarantee) hang over a franchise that just finished its seventh straight losing season.
Wilson improved his numbers significantly from a down 2022 season: a 98 passer rating and only eight interceptions this season. But Payton clearly was unhappy with Wilson’s play down the stretch, especially with three interceptions and only 186 passing yards in the Week 13 loss against the Houston Texans that ended Denver's winning streak.
Payton says all options are open at quarterback, including Wilson returning. But would he want to after being benched?
A pre-June 1 trade or release would result in a dead money hit of $85 million in 2024 for a team with only $19 million of cap room. So if the Broncos decide to move on at quarterback, a post-June 1 designation would split the cap hit over two years.
Denver's offense ranked 26th overall, which surely rankles Payton and GM George Paton after the team spent lavishly in free agency last year to build up its offensive line (signing guard Ben Powers and tackle Mike McGlinchey to big deals). Wilson was still sacked 45 times, fourth-most in the league, and the running game was middle of the pack.
The Broncos had no receivers over 800 yards despite having the talented group of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr.
Denver’s defense ranked 29th — the run defense was a problem (30th), and the unit only generated 42 sacks (21st). However, it did force 26 turnovers.
NEXT STEPS, POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
The Broncos' brain trust must decide what to do with Wilson.
It makes sense cap-wise to keep him at least one more season and draft his successor with the 12th-overall pick (or with a trade into the top 10). And more depth on the offensive line is needed to better protect whoever is playing quarterback.
Payton is talking about trading to acquire more picks — the team has no second-rounder because of the acquisition of Payton from the Saints. The inconsistent Jeudy should be traded, in which case Denver would need to draft another receiver in the early rounds.
The Broncos' running game should be better in 2024 when top back Javonte Williams (774 rushing yards, only 3.6 yards per carry in 2023) will be another year along after his torn ACL in 2022.
With Denver's limited cap money and in the draft, the team should try to bulk up the run defense on the interior defensive line and add more quality edge rushers to aid Jonathon Cooper who had 8.5 sacks. The Broncos have two Pro Bowlers in the secondary — Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons (both two-time Pro Bowlers) — but the 24th-ranked pass defense could use another quality corner and safety.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (8-9)
WHERE TO REPAIR
Coaching and quarterbacks have been major issues over the last several years for the Las Vegas Raiders and owner Mark Davis, who fired coach Josh McDaniels and GM David Ziegler midseason. And interim coach Antonio Pierce benched starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo after only six starts on his three-year deal.
The team's new football leaders must make the call on whether to keep Garoppolo, who has a $27.6 million cap hit in 2024 and $28.3 million in dead money if he’s released (as no team is likely to trade for him with his current contract). That dead money hit could be spread over two years with a post-June 1 cut/designation. The Raiders were 3-3 in games he started, but his 77.7 passer rating ranked an awful 42nd.
Fourth-round rookie QB Aidan O’Connell won three of his last four starts, including a four-touchdown-pass day in the 63-21 stomping of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. He went 5-5 as the starter, and his overall performance was up and down — a 83.9 passer rating and being shut out by the Minnesota Vikings.
Davante Adams had another fine season (103 receptions, 1,144 yards, eight touchdowns) but his frustration was apparent. It also was a difficult season for Josh Jacobs, who led the league in rushing in 2022 with 1,653 yards (4.9 yards per carry) but this season dropped to 805 yards and only 3.5 yards per carry. His one-year franchise tag deal is up again.
Pro Bowl DE Maxx Crosby had a terrific season. He led the 15th-ranked defense with 14.5 sacks (sixth-ranked) and had a league-high 23 tackles for loss, 90 tackles and 31 quarterback hits.
NEXT STEPS, POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
Davis must make a good coaching choice this time after it didn’t turn out well with his last two hires: Jon Gruden and McDaniels. The general manager decision also looms large.
The new general manager will have plenty of cap room ($55 million) to augment the roster and make the call on keeping Garoppolo for one more season until his dead money drops. With Garoppolo’s injury history and shaky 2023 performance, the team should release him, probably with a post-June 1 designation.
Then, the Raiders can sign a veteran quarterback and have O’Connell compete for the starting job. Or they could draft a quarterback in the first round at No. 13 (and trade up if deemed necessary) or in the second round from a strong quarterback class. In that case, O’Connell could be a bridge starter or backup.
The offensive line should be beefed up through free agency and the draft to help the 30th-ranked run game. The 25-year old Jacobs is an elite back who should be signed to a long-term deal similar to Jonathan Taylor's (three years, $42 million that actually averaged $11.6 million per year including the last year of his rookie contract).
The defense can use more play-makers in the secondary because the unit ranked 19th in takeaways and 17th in interceptions (with 13).
With nine draft picks and plenty of cap room, the opportunity is there for a new general manager to add talent on both sides of the ball.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-12)
WHERE TO REPAIR
When the Los Angeles Chargers lost Justin Herbert (fractured finger) in the second quarter of a Week 14 loss to the Broncos, the team already was in trouble at 5-7. Without their Pro Bowl quarterback, the Chargers lost their last five games. They enter the offseason seeking a new coach and general manager while sitting $35 million over the salary cap.
Brandon Staley was fired after he couldn’t repeat a playoff season from 2022. His defense performed poorly (28th ranked), and he showed questionable game management decisions. Plus, Los Angeles had to deal with significant injuries to star players such as Herbert, WR Mike Williams (torn ACL in Week 3) and four-time Pro Bowl EDGE Joey Bosa (eight games missed with a foot injury).
The Chargers have plenty of talent to contend in 2024 under a new coaching staff.
WR Keenan Allen (108 catches, 1,243 yards, seven touchdowns in 13 games) and EDGE Khalil Mack (17 sacks) had excellent seasons. Other stars such as Herbert, Bosa, safety Derwin James and OT Rashawn Slater show that the cupboard is not bare if the new general manager can add more talent and if the new coach can be more effective than Staley.
NEXT STEPS, POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
Chargers owner Dean Spanos must make a better coach hire this time than he did with Staley. And Spanos also needs to hit on his general manager choice.
The first task for the new general manager will be to restructure the contracts of several players — starting with Mack and Bosa, who both have cap hits over $35 million this year. The team can save a combined $37 million by cutting them, but they are still great players worth keeping if they can stay healthy.
Williams should be traded or released so that the team can save $20 million on a player who has missed 18 games over the past two seasons and turns 30 this year. Los Angeles has last year’s first-round pick — Quentin Johnston — ready to replace Williams, as Johnston did after Williams’ injury.
LB Kenneth Murray had his best season (107 tackles, three sacks) after the Chargers declined his fifth-year option as a former first-rounder, so he’s free-agency-bound but worth re-signing. So is TE Gerald Everett (51 catches, 411 yards, three touchdowns), whose $6 million per year contract is expiring.
Having the fifth-overall pick in the coming draft puts the Chargers in great position to add one of the top non-quarterbacks and perhaps trade down a few spots to add more premium talent to aid the defense and to the offensive line to help the 25th-ranked running game.
Running back also should be addressed in the early rounds because top back Austin Ekeler is headed to free agency. He's 29 and is unlikely to return after a season where his production declined significantly (from 1,637 combined yards and 18 touchdowns in 2022 to 1,064 combined yards and six touchdowns in 2023).
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-13)
WHERE TO REPAIR
It’s the dawn of a new era for the New England Patriots with Bill Belichick gone after 24 years at the helm.
Belichick the coach was let down by Belichick the general manager as the team's talent level dissipated in recent seasons from the glory years of six Super Bowl titles and 17 AFC East titles between 2001-19. The departure of Tom Brady that led to the drafting of Mac Jones created a decline of quarterback production the past two years after Jones’ solid rookie season.
A big part of the problem on offense (30th-ranked this season after being 26th-ranked in 2022) was instability at the offensive coordinator position, along with a shaky offensive line and lack of weapons at wide receiver. That made it tougher on Jones and Bailey Zappe, who stepped in when Jones was benched.
Patriots' quarterbacks threw 21 picks, second-most in the league, and they weren’t helped much by a running game that ranked 26th.
Defense always has been Belichick’s forte, and that unit performed well in yards allowed (7th-ranked) but only produced 18 takeaways. Four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Matthew Judon was missed after he went out in Week 4 because of a torn bicep. He had four sacks in the first four games after ranking fourth in the league with 15.5 sacks last season.
DT Christian Barmore (8.5 sacks, 64 tackles, 13 tackles for loss), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (114 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and safety Kyle Duggar (109 tackles, two interceptions) had fine seasons and should be building blocks on defense along with Judon.
NEXT STEPS, POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
The pressure is on Robert and Jonathan Kraft to lead the organization back to prominence, beginning with the decisions on Belichick’s successor — in both the general manager and head coach positions. New England has already hired a coach: Jerod Mayo, who had been the team's linebackers coach since 2019.
>>READ: Patriots Hire Mayo As Head Coach
The Patriots haven’t been in such a prime draft spot (No. 3 overall) since the 1990s, and they must take advantage of this opportunity to select a new franchise quarterback — likely from the threesome of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels.
With the rest of their picks and buoyed in free agency by a robust $75 million in cap room, New England should focus on improving its supporting cast for its new quarterback along the offensive line and at wide receiver and running back.
Ezekiel Elliott led the team with 642 rushing yards but had an average of only 3.5 yards per carry. He should be replaced by a younger and cheaper back.
Hunter Henry is a quality tight end (42 catches, 419 yards, six touchdowns in 14 games) who should be re-signed. But the new coaching staff must get more out of receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Smith Schuster's production fell from 78 receptions for 933 yards and three touchdowns in 2022 with the Kansas City Chiefs to 29 catches, 260 yards and one touchdown (in 11 games) this season; he likely has too much dead money ($12.3 million) to be traded or released.
On defense, the Patriots need a healthy Judon, and they should re-sign Duggar before he hits free agency in March. New England should sign more play-makers in free agency and improve its overall depth via the draft and free agency.
NEW YORK JETS (7-10)
WHERE TO REPAIR
It’s obvious that the New York Jets' 2024 fortunes are tied to the health and performance of four-time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers.
This is a team that can make the playoffs if Rodgers elevates the 31st-ranked offense that cratered after his Week 1 torn Achilles left the Jets with the underwhelming Zach Wilson. Wilson had a dismal 77.2 passer rating, only eight touchdown passes and a 60 percent completion rate in his 11 starts.
Rodgers has a talented pair of skill position players in 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson at wide receiver — 95 passes for 1,042 yards in 2023 — and in RB Breece Hall, who was impressive with 994 rushing yards — 4.5 yards per carry five touchdowns — despite defenses ganging up against the run because of New York's inconsistent passing game. At tight end, Tyler Conklin had 61 catches for 621 yards.
The Jets' offensive line was banged up all season. The tackles were a major trouble spot. Thirty-eight-year-old Duane Brown missed 12 games. Former first-rounder Mekhi Becton started 16 games after missing all but one game during the past two years, but he struggled with 12 sacks allowed and 18 penalties.
Coach Robert Saleh’s defense was outstanding and was the reason the team won as many games as it did.
New York's defense ranked third overall and had 27 takeaways (eighth-best). There are elite players at every level — led by Pro Bowl DT Quinnen Williams (139 tackles, 15 tackles for loss), LB C.J. Mosley (151 tackles), safety Jordan Whitehead (97 tackles, four interceptions) and Pro Bowl CB Sauce Gardner (12 passes defended but no interceptions because teams mostly avoided throwing in his direction).
NEXT STEPS, POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
GM Joe Douglas and Saleh were granted another year from owner Woody Johnson due to Rodgers’ injury derailing the season.
Now the pressure is on for them to produce a playoff team in 2024 with the hope that Rodgers stays healthy. But Douglas must find a better backup quarterback than Wilson if the 40-year old Rodgers gets hurt again.
The Jets have only $17 million in cap room before any cuts or restructures free up more space. They also hold the No. 10 overall pick, which creates a dilemma if a highly rated quarterback is available at their spot and they want to build for the future behind Rodgers. But the team has a bad recent history of having two top-10 quarterback busts (Sam Darnold and Wilson).
Douglas should consider trading down a few spots from No. 10 to replace the second-round pick going to Green Bay from the Rodgers trade. He should use his top pick on a highly rated offensive lineman (preferably a tackle to replace Brown, who will be a free agent and should not be re-signed). If the Jets can pick up a second-round pick by moving down, a quarterback from this fine draft class would be a smart choice.
Drafting a wide receiver in the early rounds to pair with Wilson would help after Allen Lazard had a disappointing season for an $11-million-per-year player (23 catches, 311 yards, one touchdown). Lazard has $19 million in dead money if released, so he’ll be back next season, but 33-year-old Randall Cobb should not be re-signed (despite Rodgers’ wishes) after his five-catch season. A quality backup running back also is needed after Dalvin Cook was released.
Any available cap space should be used to first address the offensive line — and then other positions on offense.
Not a lot of new additions are needed on defense, but Whitehead and EDGE Bryce Huff are potential free agent who should be re-signed (Huff is coming off an excellent season with 10 sacks and 21 quarterback hits).
