Expert Analysis
1/22/25
13 min read
After Playoff Flops, Where Do NFC North Teams Go From Here?
The NFL final four is set. After a regular season in which the NFC North was universally lauded as the league’s best division, the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers are absent on conference championship weekend after quick playoff exits.
These three teams went 40-11 in the regular season to earn playoff berths as the NFC’s first, fifth, and seventh seeds. Yet, they all lost by double digits in their opening playoff games. In the wild-card round, the favored Vikings fell by 18 points to the Los Angeles Rams in a neutral-site game in Arizona, and the underdog Packers lost by 12 points in Philadelphia.
In a bigger surprise, the top-seeded Lions — favored by 8.5 points — lost by two touchdowns at home to the Washington Commanders in Saturday’s NFC Divisional Playoff.
The end result is that the Lions are still seeking their first Super Bowl. The Vikings haven’t been to the big game since the 1976 season, 48 years ago. And the Packers won the last of their four Super Bowl titles in the 2010 season when a then-27-year-old Aaron Rodgers was in his third year as the starting quarterback.
A common factor in the three teams' playoff losses was the quarterbacks' sub-par play after strong regular seasons. Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and Jordan Love combined for seven interceptions.
The Lions, Vikings, and Packers also reached 15, 14, and 11 regular season wins, respectively, partly due to their interconference crossover division this season, which was the league’s worst — the AFC South.
All three teams went 4-0 in these matchups, and it won’t be as easy in that regard next season when the rugged AFC North is on the docket. But there were plenty of other wins against quality teams.
What else happened to cause the early playoff demise of the NFC North? And where do these three teams go from here to make it back to the playoffs — never a given — and have postseason success in 2025? And we’ll throw the Bears and new Coach Ben Johnson into this discussion of how the NFC North stacks up.
How The NFC North Stacks Up for 2025
DETROIT LIONS 
The easy answer to the Lions’ unexpectedly early exit was that all the injuries on defense caught up with them. Facing super rookie QB Jayden Daniels while missing five starters on defense is a recipe for disaster, and that was the case on Saturday.
Daniels passed for 299 yards and two touchdowns and added 51 rushing yards, as the Commanders' offense had 481 total yards and only punted once.
Detroit’s defense was playing without injured Pro Bowl DE Aidan Hutchinson, top DT Alim McNeill, their best corner Carlton Davis, LB Derrick Barnes, and DE Marcus Davenport. Corner Amik Robertson (the replacement for Davis) suffered a broken arm in the first quarter, and star safety Brian Branch (calf) was in and out of the lineup on Saturday.
The Lions’ defense allowed 30-plus points in four of its final six games. To his credit, coach Dan Campbell repeatedly said injuries are no excuse.
The Lions’ top-scoring offense overcame the defensive shortcomings until the Washington game when they rang up 521 total yards but had five turnovers. Goff — selected as the NFC’s starting Pro Bowl QB — had a terrific regular season (111.8 passer rating to rank second).
Still, he threw three interceptions against the Commanders, including a second-quarter pick-six to Quan Martin. Goff also lost a fumble, and WR Jameson Williams made a bad throw on a reverse pass for a key fourth-quarter pick.
The team will undergo a coaching transition at the coordinator level. Campbell must replace Johnson as the offensive coordinator and possibly defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, a target of the Jets and other teams.
Detroit GM Brad Holmes has built a tremendous roster with seven Pro Bowlers, including five on offense. With one of the league’s best offensive lines and an elite wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and running back (Jahmyr Gibbs), the Lions should be right back in the mix to win a third straight NFC North title.
They should compete for the top NFC seed again in 2025 if they can have better health on defense, especially with their best players such as Hutchinson, McNeill, and Davis (a pending free agent), and if Goff shakes off this playoff failure (which he should be able to do).
The Lions must get the coaching hires right and navigate free agency with 24 unrestricted free agents, including several key players like Davis and starting guard Kevin Zeitler. They’re in excellent salary cap shape to attack free agency with an estimated $68 million of cap room this year. Adding pass-rush help alongside Hutchinson will be a target after the team had 37 sacks (23rd best) in the regular season and didn’t sack Daniels once.
Holmes also can add talent with six draft picks, including first and second-rounders.
The divisional-round home loss was a big disappointment to the team and fans after a playoff run to the NFC title game in 2023, followed by a 15-win regular season. The Lions will have to deal with a challenging first-place schedule next season, but it’s realistic to expect them to use the painful Washington loss as fuel for another big season in 2025.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Vikings were projected to win six or seven games in 2024 but became one of the league’s biggest surprises in a 14-win season. They entered Week 18 on a nine-game winning streak with the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed on the line in prime time at Detroit, where the clock struck midnight for this Cinderella team and their quarterback, Sam Darnold, in a 31-9 loss. The disappointing playoff defeat to the Rams followed that.
Darnold held the ball too long, was consistently late on his throws, and was inaccurate in those two games. He threw for only 166 yards in Detroit and 245 yards with an interception and nine sacks taken against the Rams.
It was a career season until the last two weeks for Darnold, who was signed on a one-year, $10 million contract to be a bridge to first-rounder J.J. McCarthy. In the regular season, Darnold produced career-bests in passing yards (4,319), touchdown passes (35), and passer rating (102.5, sixth-ranked) and was selected to his first Pro Bowl.
Yet, it’s apparent he’s opened the door for McCarthy to step into the starting role in 2025 rather than backing up Darnold next season, which was the expected scenario until the last two games.
McCarthy showed promise in preseason before suffering a meniscus injury that cost him his rookie season.
Coach Kevin O’Connell has proven to be a QB-whisperer who got the best out of Kirk Cousins and Darnold. He signed a lucrative extension and will try to work his magic with the 21-year-old McCarthy. Darnold could be re-signed to a similar one-year deal, but there’s a decent chance he finds a better deal. Daniel Jones also is on the roster and in the mix for the bridge role.
The Vikings want McCarthy to take the reins and turn into a clutch quarterback (that Darnold wasn’t in the end) to help them win big games, such as their season-ending losses. A quarterback on a rookie deal is a big part of GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s salary cap planning after absorbing a $28.5 million dead money hit in 2024 with Cousins’ departure.
The Vikings have an estimated $65-70 million of cap room to sign a veteran quarterback (Darnold, Jones, or another player) and rework the offensive line that was shaky this season, especially on the interior, and allowed a playoff record-tying nine sacks by the Rams (partially due to Darnold holding the ball too long).
The Vikings also will get elite LT Christian Darrisaw (torn ACL in Week 8) back as a bookend tackle with Brian O’Neill next season, and perhaps Cam Robinson (acquired in a trade after Darrisaw’s injury) could move inside as a big guard if he doesn’t get a solid free agent offer to play tackle.
Aaron Jones had his best rushing season (1,138 yards) and is a pending free agent who is likely to return.
The Vikings’ defense was a big part of the team’s success. It had a league-leading 33 takeaways and 24 interceptions (but none in the playoff loss). The defense could lose a top defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, who has interviewed for several head coaching jobs.
The defense has several starters headed to free agency, including Pro Bowl CB Byron Murphy, his fellow starting corners Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin, safeties Cam Bynum and Harrison Smith (who had a fine season but is pondering retirement), and DT Jerry Tillery.
The Vikings have offensive skill position talent (led by all-pro receiver Justin Jefferson). The defense has several elite defenders, including Pro Bowl edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard and inside backer Blake Cashman, who were all astute signings in free agency last offseason. 2024 first-rounder Dallas Turner showed flashes of his talent and should make a bigger impact next season.
The team has only three picks in the upcoming draft — a first and two fifths — but is expected to land a third-round compensatory pick after losing Cousins and Danielle Hunter in free agency.
Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell must hit on those limited picks and navigate free agency to improve the interior O-line and maintain or improve the secondary. A 14-win season will be hard to repeat.
Still, if they accomplish those goals and McCarthy proves to be an ascending talent as a top-quality quarterback, the Vikings should again contend for the division title and be playoff-bound, hoping to land home-field advantage at their raucous stadium.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
After their fine finish in 2023, which included a playoff romp in Dallas and a narrow defeat in the divisional round at San Francisco, the Packers were expected to battle for the NFC North title and be a Super Bowl contender.
The inability to beat the top NFC teams (two losses each in the regular season to the Lions and Vikings and a loss to the Eagles) derailed Green Bay’s division title hopes. With a difficult assignment as the seven seed heading to Philly in the wild-card round, injuries and sub-par play by QB Jordan Love contributed heavily to the defeat.
Love threw three picks as the Packers' No. 5 ranked offense was held to 10 points by the Eagles’ top-ranked defense in the wild-card loss. Green Bay’s deep threat Christian Watson was out with a torn ACL, and by the second half, Love also was missing his other top wide receivers, Jayden Reed and Romeo Dobbs. His best offensive lineman — Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins — was also hurt early in the game.
Love’s accuracy was off against the Eagles, as it was early this season when he had 11 interceptions in the first eight games. That contributed to the Packers’ 5-3 start, which put them behind the Lions and Vikings. He rallied with nine touchdown passes and no picks in the last seven games before his wild-card hiccup.
The offense ranked fifth behind Love (96.7 passer rating to rank 12th) and Pro Bowl back Josh Jacobs (1,329 rushing yards, sixth-ranked, 16 combined touchdowns).
The Green Bay defense improved this season under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. It ranked sixth overall and fourth in takeaways with 31. The Packers brass has to decide the future of Pro Bowl CB Jaire Alexander ($25 million cap hit in 2025 but a $6 million cap savings if he’s traded or released). He played in only seven games each of the last two seasons and was suspended one game for conduct detrimental to the team in 2023.
A frustrated Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said after the Eagles loss, “We got a bunch of talented guys in that locker room, and yeah, I think it’s time that we start competing for championships, right?”
To do that, Gutekunst and his fine coach, Matt LaFleur (five playoff trips in six years with two NFC title game losses), need to fine-tune a young team with their seven draft picks and an estimated $44 million in cap room to re-sign key free agents like OC Josh Myers and DT Tedarrell Slaton.
Above all, the Packers need the 26-year-old Love to continue his development, play better in the postseason than he did against Philly, and reach top-five quarterback status in his third year as the starter.
His 2023 late-season performance led to a four-year, $220 million contract extension last July (second-highest-paid quarterback in new money). Love battled knee and elbow injuries this season, so he needs to stay healthy along with his talented wide receiver corps and Jenkins as the offensive line’s leader.
The Packers still have the look of a team on the rise as they try to get over the hump against the top teams.
Chicago Bears
No discussion of the NFC North can be complete without analyzing the promising turned dismal season of the Bears, who went from an excellent start at 4-2 to a 10-game losing streak (that resulted in the mid-season firing of coach Matt Eberflus).
Chicago’s closing win against Green Bay left them in last place in the division at 5-12.
With his reputation as an offensive guru, Johnson will be expected to improve the 31st-ranked passing attack through the development of 2024's No. 1 pick, Caleb Williams. He showed flashes of his talent but suffered from terrible protection. The Bears allowed a league-worst 68 sacks due to the porous offensive line and Williams often holding the ball too long.
The skill position players are there on offense, and the defense has plenty of playmakers but must shore up against the run (28th).
2025 will be a key year for GM Ryan Poles to improve the team via the draft (three picks in the top 42) and free agency with an estimated $69 million in cap room. The offensive line must be the top priority.
Overall, the NFC North should continue to be one of the league’s best divisions in 2025, but the postseason truly tells the tale, and this season clearly ended poorly.
