NFL Analysis

10/16/24

7 min read

Amari Cooper Trade Will ImpRove An Already Dynamic Buffalo Bills Offense

By Tyler Brooke

NFL Analyst
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper (2) runs with the ball after a catch as Dallas Cowboys cornerback Caelen Carson (21) defends during the first quarter at Huntington Bank Field. Ken Blaze-Imagn Images.

Davante Adams may have stolen the top headlines on Tuesday, but the Buffalo Bills made a splash of their own by trading for Amari Cooper. The trade included a late-round pick swap with a third-round pick heading to Cleveland.

At 30 years old, Cooper has shown that he still has plenty left in the tank, and this trade will have major ramifications for both teams.

How Amari Cooper Fits in Buffalo

Cooper's start to 2024 has been disappointing, but the Bills offer him a chance at a fresh start.

Through the first few weeks of the season, Cooper is averaging a career-low 1.08 yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus. The previous low for his career was 1.54 YPRR in 2017, and he was well over 2.0 YPRR in the last two seasons with the Browns.

Despite the lack of efficiency, it's not like the Browns weren't throwing Cooper's way this year. He was 12th in the NFL with a 27.5 percent target share. He was still a focal point of the offense, but QB Deshaun Watson couldn't deliver an accurate ball with regularity when throwing Cooper's way.

At 6-foot-1, 211 pounds, Cooper could command a large target share again in Buffalo despite its already established weapons. Even if he's potentially lost a step, Cooper is still one of football's best route runners, particularly with his release.

Cooper can set up defensive backs by mixing up speeds and types of releases to maximize his separation. Even when he's not getting the ball, like in the play below, he can completely cross up defenders and leave them in his wake.

On top of that, Cooper has also established himself as a contested-catch weapon on intermediate and deep shots. He's caught more than 50 percent of his contested-catch opportunities dating back to 2020, including 58 jump balls in that span.

This diverse skill set makes Cooper the perfect starting outside receiver for the Bills. He's a major upgrade over Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel, who have seen the field in expanded roles after Stefon Diggs' departure.

Cooper is also the perfect complement to Buffalo's other two presumed starting receivers. Slot receiver Khalil Shakir has found his role during the last couple of seasons and is thriving in that spot in 2024. According to Next Gen Stats, Shakir is seventh in the NFL with 4.4 yards of separation per target and ninth with 7.8 yards after the catch per reception.

Not only is Shakir creating separation, but he's also making plays in space once the ball is in his hands. His performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football shows just how much of his production comes after the catch.

Credit: Next Gen Stats

An established veteran on the outside like Cooper will demand attention from opposing defenses, which should open things up even more for Shakir.

Meanwhile, Cooper can be an ideal mentor for rookie WR Keon Coleman. The second-round pick is a big-bodied wideout at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, but he thrives on making catches through contact. Per PFF, seven of Coleman's 20 targets this season have come in contested-catch situations, but he's still had some decent production with 12 catches for 201 yards and two scores.

It's hard to quantify, but having a veteran like Cooper with such a versatile release package could help Coleman learn more of the nuances of playing the receiver position instead of relying on his size and physicality.

In the meantime, Cooper's presence could also allow Coleman to operate more in the slot. Only 4.9 percent of his snaps have been played in the slot so far this season.

Former star receiver Steve Smith Sr. brought up a strong argument about kicking Coleman inside to present mismatches against different types of defensive players during an appearance with Underdog Fantasy.

With Coleman and Shakir potentially handling slot responsibilities, tight end Dalton Kincaid could operate as more of a route-runner from an in-line position or at least make him more versatile.

According to TruMedia, only 26.2 percent of Kincaid's routes have come from a traditional tight end alignment. However, he's been remarkably efficient on those routes, catching 9-of-10 targets for a strong 2.41 yards per route run.

While Kincaid has had more production in the slot, the Bills tight end hasn't been as efficient compared to in-line, averaging 1.69 yards per route run. That pre-snap alignment also factors into the team's game plan in the run game, but Kincaid has shown willingness as a blocker, even early in his career.

Cooper's arrival allows players like Kincaid, Shakir, and Coleman to move around all over the field instead of being stuck in one position or alignment. That's a dangerous wrinkle to an offense that's already third in DVOA.

Josh Allen has sorely missed a reliable route runner on the outside this season since losing Diggs, but it's not like he's having a bad season. In fact, Allen is having an MVP-caliber season with 10 passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 106.8 passer rating while running for another 178 yards and three scores.

If that's the version of Allen the Bills have had without a route-running savant, imagine just how much more dominant he could be if Cooper can fit in easily with the rest of Buffalo's receivers.

Are the Browns Tanking?

Now that Cooper is gone, the Browns don't have many exciting options in the passing game.

As of Wednesday morning, the Browns only have four receivers on their 53-man roster, and none of them are established stars. Jerry Jeudy is the most noteworthy name, but he has yet to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. His career year came in 2022 with the Denver Broncos, catching 67 passes for 972 yards and six touchdowns.

After Jeudy, the other names on the roster are Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, and fifth-round rookie Jamari Thrash.

TE David Njoku will likely receive a big uptick in targets as the team's top pass-catching option. He's only played in three games this year due to a hamstring injury, but he had a career season with 81 catches on 123 targets for 882 yards and six touchdowns in 2023.

Regardless, that's simply not enough offensive firepower for a sustainable NFL offense. The Browns don't seem concerned about it because they're also not worried about Watson's year at quarterback.

Despite ranking 31st in ESPN's QBR rankings, the Browns are keeping Watson as their starting quarterback. Head coach Kevin Stefanski reiterated that with reporters this week.

"I think Deshaun gives us the best chance to win, continues to give us the best chance to win," Stefanski said. "We need to play really good offensive football at his position and really at every position to be successful."

The Browns are sitting at the bottom of the AFC North with a 1-5 record, and they still have the sixth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league.

Trading Cooper away feels like waving the white flag, in a sense. The playoffs seem like an impossible goal at this point, and the quarterback situation is such a distraction that the front office has to focus on moving on.

With another loss this weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals, look for other players to be traded as the team starts to gear up for a full-on tank.

Tags: Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns

Tyler Brooke

NFL Analyst

Tyler is an experienced NFL writer who has been covering the NFL since 2012. His work has been featured on Bleacher Report, FanDuel, SB Nation, and a number of other sites. Along with more than 12 years of experience covering the NFL, Tyler also co-authored "The Science of Football" and is an assistant football coach at Carmel High School in Indiana.

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